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Why ARKO Stock advanced +1.58% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$3.85 +1.58% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.85

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $425.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, ARKO Corp. (NASDAQ: ARKO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $3.85 (+1.58% 1D, market cap $425.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ARKO ranks #84 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARKO compare to DNUT and VLGEA in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), ARKO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $568.2M) and VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $633.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARKO?
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Per ARKO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001823794), ARKO Corp. generated $286.4M in revenue (+8.8% YoY), $22.7M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $3.53B in total assets and $875.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.85 (+0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 22.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-
Cash (13)Whales (3)SEC (11)Macro (6)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.4% Base Target
$9 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE ARKO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARKO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARKO SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22.8% FCF Margin ($65.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$4.10-1.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$4.03-4.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$3.85+0% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$3.85-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARKO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARKO currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.23) and Max Pain ($4.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.20.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARKO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARKO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ARKO Stock advanced +1.58% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) advanced +1.58% to $3.85, trading at 5% of its 52-week range ($3.61 – $8.76). Stretched risk/reward at 19x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 5% of its 52-week range ($3.61 – $8.76) with RSI-14 at 35 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8% around $3.85 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $65.3M annual free cash flow.
Live ARKO Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRETradingView • 1d ago
ARKO Corp. Estimates – NASDAQ:ARKO

TradingView report covering ARKO Corp. (ARKO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARKO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ARKO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ARKO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.84%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $3.78H $3.85L $3.78C $3.85VOL 1.43M
RES: $3.17SUP: $3.56SMA50: $4.23SMA200: $5.98
$9.12$7.63$6.13$4.64$3.15RES $3.17SUP $3.56$3.852026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARKO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARKO Butterfly Map → + Track ARKO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARKO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARKO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARKO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARKO)

Consumer Staples Rank #84 of 147 ⚔️ DNUT vs ARKO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (ARKO vs. DNUT, VLGEA, NGVC, GO)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ARKO Corp. (ARKO) ranks #84 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #86 by equity capitalization ($425.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with ARKO at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARKO ACTIVE
ARKO Corp.
D 48/100 18.6x — 9.6% +1.58% $425.2M Benchmark Subject
DNUT
Krispy Kreme Inc.
E 26/100 — — -24.4% +3.51% $568.2M /dnut-vs-arko →
VLGEA
Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)
B 73/100 11.2x 28.6% 14.0% +0.84% $633.3M /vlgea-vs-arko →
NGVC
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.
C 63/100 14.1x 29.9% 24.9% +2.37% $661.2M /ngvc-vs-arko →
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
D+ 57/100 — 30.3% -12.6% +2.32% $1.28B /go-vs-arko →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001823794 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ARKO Corp. (ARKO) reported GAAP revenue of $286.4M (+8.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $263.3M , and -13.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $22.7M, operating cash flow of $192.6M, and free cash flow of $65.3M (-39.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARKO closed FY2025 with $3.53B in total assets against $875.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $286.4M $22.7M $192.6M $65.3M $3.53B $875.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $263.3M $20.8M $221.9M $107.9M $3.62B $868.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $330.4M $34.4M $136.1M $136.1M — —

3. ARKO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, ARKO Corp. (NASDAQ: ARKO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $3.85 (+1.58% 1D, market cap $425.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ARKO ranks #84 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARKO compare to DNUT and VLGEA in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), ARKO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $568.2M) and VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $633.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARKO?

Per ARKO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001823794), ARKO Corp. generated $286.4M in revenue (+8.8% YoY), $22.7M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $3.53B in total assets and $875.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARKO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARKO last traded at $3.85 (+1.58% on volume of 587,484 shares), positioning the stock -8.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.23) and -35.62% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.98). Across its 52-week range of $3.61 to $8.76, ARKO sits at the 4.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($3.54 to $4.16).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARKO RQD Cockpit ARKO 12M Forecast ARKO Earnings & Move ARKO Dividends & DRIP ARKO Insiders & 13F ARKO Whale Options ARKO Profit Sankey ARKO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARKO — ARKO Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.85 (+1.58% 1D, market capitalization $425.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 15.40%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 3.28x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

ARKO Corp. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Staples sector, Food Chains industry. — for products sold, customer base, or revenue model. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $0.4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), ARKO Corp. (ARKO) reported $286.4M in annual revenue (up from $263.3M in FY2024, +8.8% YoY) and $22.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($330.4M revenue, $34.4M net income) through FY2025, ARKO scaled operating cash flow to $192.6M and free cash flow to $65.3M, backed by $3.53B in total assets against $875.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 15.40% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.61 – $8.76 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 18.6x trailing P/E and 4.7x EV/EBITDA against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks.

  • Key Question #1: Can ARKO sustain or expand its — operating margin and 9.6% ROIC against Food Chains peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $286.4M and free cash flow of $65.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $875.5M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARKO's 17.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARKO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ARKO Corp. (ARKO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARKO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARKO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.85?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARKO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARKO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.81 (+26.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, the Fundamental Cash Engine shows ROIC of 9.6% and an FCF yield of 15.4%.

Per the RQD rating, the Fundamental Cash Engine shows ROIC of 9.6% and an FCF yield of 15.4%.. When you look under the hood at ARKO, Fundamental Cash Engine is 13/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 9.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $8.76. My 12M target is $4.81.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 48/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $3.79 and keeping dry powder in case we test $3.52.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.88 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $3.79

Per the RQD rating, the Whale 13F Flow pillar scores only 3/20 and Debt/Equity is 3.28.

Per the RQD rating, the Whale 13F Flow pillar scores only 3/20 and Debt/Equity is 3.28.. Look at the math on ARKO: paying 18.6x trailing P/E for 9.6% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Food Chains demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $3.34 before getting long.

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