What is ARQT's 12-month stock price target?

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $30.7 (-1.8% from $31.26), with a bull-case target of $36.23 and a bear-case floor of $23.95.

Stock Ratings / Health Care / ARQT / forecast

LQDA (36) ABCL (44) INDV (51) LEGN (60) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is ARQT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ARQT D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 54/100.

$31.26 -2.53% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.06

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.03B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARQT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: ARQT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $31.26 (-2.53% 1D, market cap $4.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ARQT ranks #215 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARQT compare to LQDA and ABCL in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ARQT carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 90.2%, and ROIC of -3.0%. By comparison, LQDA (Liquidia Corporation) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.6%, cap $4.03B) and ABCL (AbCellera Biologics Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.5%, cap $3.97B). Among the 5-stock peer group, INDV leads on earnings multiple (19.8x) while INDV leads on capital efficiency (62.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARQT?

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Per ARQT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001787306), Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. generated $376.1M in revenue (+91.3% YoY), -$16.1M in net income, and -$6.3M in free cash flow against $433.0M in total assets and $108.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.06 (-0.65%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARQT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARQT SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 7.78 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$26.41+20.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$31.87-1.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$31.45-0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$31.26-0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (46) → D+ (54)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARQT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARQT currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($27.09) and Max Pain ($32.82) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $36.23.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARQT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARQT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ARQT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $31.26: 319.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $23.95

$7,662

$-2,338 (-23.4%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $30.70

$9,821

$-179 (-1.8%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $36.23

$11,590

+$1,590 (+15.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$32	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$34	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$27	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARQT)

✓Walkthrough of ARQT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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ARQT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +33.08%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $31.97H $32.07L $31.26C $31.26VOL 1.88M

RES: $33.83SUP: $24.16SMA50: $27.09SMA200: $25.34

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARQT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARQT Butterfly Map → + Track ARQT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

17.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +91.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARQT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARQT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARQT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARQT)

Health Care Rank #215 of 1015 ⚔️ LQDA vs ARQT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ARQT vs. LQDA, ABCL, INDV, LEGN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) ranks #215 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #179 by equity capitalization ($4.03B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, INDV leads on earnings valuation at 19.8x trailing P/E, while INDV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 62.2% ROIC and 80.2% gross margin. LEGN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with ARQT at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARQT ACTIVE Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc.	D+	54/100	—	90.2%	-3.0%	-2.53%	$4.03B	Benchmark Subject
LQDA Liquidia Corporation	D-	36/100	—	—	-12.6%	-7.12%	$4.03B	/lqda-vs-arqt →
ABCL AbCellera Biologics Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-20.5%	-9.37%	$3.97B	/abcl-vs-arqt →
INDV Indivior Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	51/100	19.8x	80.2%	62.2%	+0.34%	$4.17B	/indv-vs-arqt →
LEGN Legend Biotech Corporation	C-	60/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-2.45%	$4.21B	/legn-vs-arqt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001787306 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) reported GAAP revenue of $376.1M (+91.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $196.5M , and +530.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$16.1M, operating cash flow of -$5.6M, and free cash flow of -$6.3M (+94.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARQT closed FY2025 with $433.0M in total assets against $108.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.78, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$376.1M	-$16.1M	-$5.6M	-$6.3M	$433.0M	$108.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$196.5M	-$140.0M	-$112.2M	-$112.3M	$348.9M	$107.2M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$59.6M	-$262.1M	-$247.1M	-$249.7M	$2.21B	$517.2M

3. ARQT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARQT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ARQT compare to LQDA and ABCL in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARQT?

Where is ARQT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARQT last traded at $31.26 (-2.53% on volume of 1,514,629 shares), positioning the stock +15.39% above its 50-day simple moving average ($27.09) and +23.36% above its 200-day simple moving average ($25.34). Across its 52-week range of $19.30 to $33.30, ARQT sits at the 85.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($28.23 to $34.29).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARQT RQD Cockpit ARQT 12M Forecast ARQT Earnings & Move ARQT Dividends & DRIP ARQT Insiders & 13F ARQT Whale Options ARQT Profit Sankey ARQT News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARQT — Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $31.26 (-2.53% 1D, market capitalization $4.03B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -3.0%, gross margin of 90.2%, operating margin of -3.3%, and free cash flow yield of -0.16%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 7.78, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.57x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The financials show revenue of $376.1M for FY 2025, . Gross margin is 90.2%, per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) reported $376.1M in annual revenue (up from $196.5M in FY2024, +91.3% YoY) and -$16.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($59.6M revenue, -$262.1M net income) through FY2025, ARQT scaled operating cash flow to -$5.6M and free cash flow to -$6.3M, backed by $433.0M in total assets against $108.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 54/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -0.16% and institutional whale pillar of 17/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $19.30 – $33.30 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -3.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should note that this absence means the rating cannot be traced through a supplier or customer network within the provided data.

Key Question #1: Can ARQT sustain or expand its -3.3% operating margin and -3.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $376.1M and free cash flow of -$6.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $108.0M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARQT's 24.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARQT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARQT Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) Showcased Fresh ZORYVE Data, Is It Still 28% Below Fair Value?

Yahoo Finance report covering Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Arcutis Biotherapeutics: An Emerging GARP Stock (NASDAQ:ARQT)

Seeking Alpha report covering Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Benzinga • 1d ago

Why Is Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stock Surging Thursday?

Benzinga report covering Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST ChartMill • 1d ago

Arcutis Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ:ARQT) Looks Undervalued as Growth and Margins Support the Value Case

ChartMill report covering Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Clinical Data Update Could Shape The Case For Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stock

Yahoo Finance report covering Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 1d ago

Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) Shares Rally to 52-Week High Amid Strong Momentum

GuruFocus report covering Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 1d ago

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:ARQT

TradingView report covering Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Simply Wall Street • 1d ago

Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) Unveiled Fresh ZORYVE Data, Is The Stock Still Below Fair Value?

Simply Wall Street report covering Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARQT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $31.26?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARQT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $37.52 (+17.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Whale/13F flow scores 17 of 20 and revenue grew from $59.6M in FY 2023 to $376.1M in FY 2025, with the stock at a 52-week high.

The street is overcomplicating Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT). Whale/13F flow scores 17 of 20 and revenue grew from $59.6M in FY 2023 to $376.1M in FY 2025, with the stock at a 52-week high.. With an RQD score of 54/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $34.64.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ARQT's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $25.98 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $32.07

ROIC of -3%, FCF yield of -0.16%, and FY 2025 net loss of -$16.1M leave the cash engine unproven, with insider conviction at 6 of 20.

I respect the product at Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc., but the stock at $32.07 is a different story. ROIC of -3%, FCF yield of -0.16%, and FY 2025 net loss of -$16.1M leave the cash engine unproven, with insider conviction at 6 of 20.. FCF yield is -0.16% and RQD sits at 54/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?