Why ARX Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$19.82 0.00% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.78

Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.30B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (NYSE: ARX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $19.82 (0.00% 1D, market cap $4.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ARX ranks #308 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARX compare to BWIN and CRVL in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), ARX carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BWIN (The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.6%, cap $4.44B) and CRVL (CorVel Corp.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARX?
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Per ARX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001997350), Accelerant Holdings (Class A) generated $912.9M in revenue (+51.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and $445.1M in free cash flow against $8.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.78 (-0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 48.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (11)Whales (15)SEC (10)Macro (16)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$24 Bull$20 Base$16 Bear
📬 FREE ARX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARX SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$19.77+0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$19.83-0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$19.82+0% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$19.82+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, ARX faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.77) or 200D SMA ($15.01) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.36) toward Bear Floor ($15.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ARX Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) slipped 0.00% to $19.82, trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($9.18 – $19.9). Solid steady margins (steady margins), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($9.18 – $19.9) with RSI-14 at 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±1.8% around $19.82 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $445.1M annual free cash flow.
Live ARX Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
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Erie Indemnity (ERIE) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +2.05% and -2.00%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?

RISK WATCHYahoo • 6d ago
3 Insurance Stocks Linked To Rising AI Catastrophe Risk

Anthropic’s IPO filing did more than throw another AI ticker, ANT, onto investors’ radar. It put catastrophic AI risk front and center, with pages of disclosures about weaponisation, hacking and insurance gaps that few h

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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ARX Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
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ARX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +52.70%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $19.81H $19.82L $19.81C $19.82VOL 582.7K
RES: $19.85SUP: $8.90SMA50: $19.77SMA200: $15.01
$20.54$17.89$15.24$12.60$9.95RES $19.85SUP $8.90$19.822026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +51.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARX)

Financials Rank #308 of 1096 ⚔️ BWIN vs ARX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARX vs. BWIN, CRVL, NP, HGTY)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) ranks #308 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #304 by equity capitalization ($4.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGTY leads on earnings valuation at 37.5x trailing P/E, while HGTY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 67.4% ROIC and — gross margin. CRVL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with ARX at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARX ACTIVE
Accelerant Holdings (Class A)
C 64/100 — — — 0.00% $4.30B Benchmark Subject
BWIN
The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.
D 46/100 — — 3.6% +0.31% $4.44B /bwin-vs-arx →
CRVL
CorVel Corp.
B 75/100 37.6x — 29.4% +0.04% $4.15B /crvl-vs-arx →
NP
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A)
C 64/100 106.4x — 28.2% +1.28% $3.98B /np-vs-arx →
HGTY
Hagerty Inc. (Class A)
B 75/100 37.5x — 67.4% +0.78% $5.60B /hgty-vs-arx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001997350

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) reported GAAP revenue of $912.9M (+51.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $602.6M , and +165.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $445.1M, and free cash flow of $445.1M (-43.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARX closed FY2025 with $8.26B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $912.9M $0 $445.1M $445.1M $8.26B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $602.6M $0 $785.7M $785.7M $6.09B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $344.0M $0 $290.0M $290.0M — —

3. ARX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (NYSE: ARX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $19.82 (0.00% 1D, market cap $4.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ARX ranks #308 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARX compare to BWIN and CRVL in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), ARX carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BWIN (The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.6%, cap $4.44B) and CRVL (CorVel Corp.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARX?

Per ARX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001997350), Accelerant Holdings (Class A) generated $912.9M in revenue (+51.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and $445.1M in free cash flow against $8.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARX last traded at $19.82 (0.00% on volume of 573,233 shares), positioning the stock +0.25% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.77) and +32.05% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.01). Across its 52-week range of $9.18 to $19.90, ARX sits at the 99.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($19.46 to $20.18).

ARX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is ARX stock moving today?

Why ARX Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (steady margins), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ARX — Accelerant Holdings (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:21:53Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ARX carries an RQD Score of 64 and a letter grade of C, with the verdict label "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11 / 20): The rating cites ROIC of 0% and an FCF yield of 10.34%. The FCF yield is the most constructive input in this pillar, suggesting cash generation relative to market value, while the 0% ROIC signals that reported returns on invested capital are not yet visible.
  • Whale 13F Flow (15 / 20): The rating references institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is a moderately supportive signal, though the detailed holder data needed to verify it is not present in the source data.
  • Insider Conviction (12 / 20): The rating references an SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Insider and congressional signals are moderate rather than strong.
  • Macro Regime Fit (16 / 20): The rating cites a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. This is the strongest pillar, indicating market-like volatility and a reasonable fit with the current regime per the rating's methodology.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (10 / 20): The rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. This is the weakest pillar, reflecting limited financial-strength confirmation.

For a prospective investor, the rating points to a balanced setup: cash-flow yield and macro fit offer support, while weak return metrics and a modest Piotroski score argue for caution. The price of 19.82 sits near the top of the 52-week range of $9.18 – $19.9, so much of the trailing recovery is already reflected in the price. Valuation tradeoffs cannot be fully assessed because P/E and EV/EBITDA are not available in source data. The rating's verdict is a hold-level assessment, not a directional call.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$912.9M$0.0M$0.0MN/A$445.1M$1716.2MN/A
FY 2024$602.6M$0.0M$0.0MN/A$785.7M$1225.7MN/A
FY 2023$344.0M$0.0M$0.0MN/A$290.0MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, reported net income and operating income are shown as $0.0M for all periods, and EPS is N/A. Per market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each 0%, and ROIC is 0%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, both per the Roarable RQD rating, and the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.5. Reported FCF moved from $290.0M to $785.7M before declining to $445.1M, while cash rose from $1225.7M to $1716.2M in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items reference ARX:

  • Options positioning: "Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Accelerant Stock?" (Yahoo Finance, YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • Momentum screen: ARX passed a Minervini Trend Template and high-growth momentum screen per ChartMill (GREEN, CATALYST).
  • Valuation framing: Yahoo Finance characterizes ARX as fairly valued as a growth narrative builds (GREEN, CATALYST).
  • Legal/shareholder inquiry: Halper Sadeh LLC is investigating whether shareholders are receiving a fair price (Carroll County Mirror-Democrat, YELLOW, MARKET WIRE). This is a risk watch item; the source does not state any outcome.
  • Valuation caution: Simply Wall St describes the stock as priced at a premium to sales (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • Technical: MarketBeat reports the price broke above the 200-day moving average (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).

The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists supply_chain as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's products, customers, and primary revenue drivers within Specialty Insurers?
  • Why are reported net income and operating income $0.0M across all periods, and how does this reconcile with reported FCF?
  • What is the outcome or scope of the shareholder fair-price investigation referenced in the news feed?
  • What are the P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS figures, which would be needed to judge valuation against the 0% ROIC?
  • What is the debt position, since FY debt is reported as N/A in every period?

ARX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Accelerant Holdings (Class A) (ARX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.82?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARX 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $21.41 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ARX (C • RQD 64/100) a Buy at $19.82?

Welcome to the ARX (Accelerant Holdings (Class A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 64/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Specialty Insurers. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.65 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $19.82

Pump the brakes on ARX — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ARX, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Accelerant Holdings (Class A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $23.59 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $19.82

ARX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ARX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Specialty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $19.82 (52-wk range $9.18 - $19.90), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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