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Stock Ratings / Materials / ASTL / forecast
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Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$4.77 -4.41% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.72

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $527.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ASTL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $4.77 (-4.41% 1D, market cap $527.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ASTL ranks #54 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASTL compare to IIIN and TWI in the Materials sector?
▼

Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), ASTL carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, IIIN (Insteel Industries Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 13.7x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $560.6M) and TWI (Titan International Inc.) posts a E grade (19/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.3%, cap $316.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IIIN leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while FRD leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTL?
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For Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #54 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.72 (-0.98%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (10)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target
$6 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE ASTL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASTL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ASTL SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$4.25-2.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$4.13+17.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$4.86-1.9% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$4.77-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ASTL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, ASTL faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.35) or 200D SMA ($4.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.75) toward Bear Floor ($3.71).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASTL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ASTL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ASTL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.77: 2096.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.71
$7,778
$-2,222 (-22.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.75
$9,958
$-42 (-0.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $6.20
$12,998
+$2,998 (+30.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASTL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ASTL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
ASTL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.06%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $4.94H $4.99L $4.77C $4.77VOL 2.15M
RES: $5.17SUP: $3.96SMA50: $4.35SMA200: $4.44
$6.07$5.37$4.68$3.99$3.29RES $5.17SUP $3.96$4.772026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASTL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASTL Butterfly Map → + Track ASTL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASTL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASTL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASTL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASTL)

Materials Rank #54 of 270 ⚔️ IIIN vs ASTL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (ASTL vs. IIIN, TWI, MTUS, FRD)

Industry: Steel/Iron Ore (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) ranks #54 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #171 by equity capitalization ($527.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IIIN leads on earnings valuation at 13.7x trailing P/E, while FRD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. FRD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with ASTL at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ASTL ACTIVE
Algoma Steel Group Inc.
D+ 57/100 — — — -4.41% $527.3M Benchmark Subject
IIIN
Insteel Industries Inc.
D 50/100 13.7x 14.4% 11.4% -1.76% $560.6M /iiin-vs-astl →
TWI
Titan International Inc.
E 19/100 — 13.9% 5.3% -5.29% $316.9M /twi-vs-astl →
MTUS
Metallus Inc.
D+ 53/100 — 8.2% -0.2% -1.40% $887.8M /mtus-vs-astl →
FRD
Friedman Industries Inc.
C 62/100 15.9x — 13.7% -2.34% $311.4M /frd-vs-astl →

2. ASTL Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) operates in Steel/Iron Ore (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $527.3M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. ASTL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $4.77 (-4.41% 1D, market cap $527.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ASTL ranks #54 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASTL compare to IIIN and TWI in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), ASTL carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, IIIN (Insteel Industries Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 13.7x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $560.6M) and TWI (Titan International Inc.) posts a E grade (19/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.3%, cap $316.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IIIN leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while FRD leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTL?

For Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #54 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASTL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASTL last traded at $4.77 (-4.41% on volume of 1,027,169 shares), positioning the stock +9.66% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.35) and +7.43% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.44). Across its 52-week range of $3.16 to $5.90, ASTL sits at the 58.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.3% ($4.23 to $5.31).

ASTL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ASTL's 12-month stock price target?

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $4.75 (-0.4% from $4.77), with a bull-case target of $6.2 and a bear-case floor of $3.71.

Is ASTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ASTL D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 57/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: ASTL RQD Cockpit ASTL 12M Forecast ASTL Earnings & Move ASTL Dividends & DRIP ASTL Insiders & 13F ASTL Whale Options ASTL Profit Sankey ASTL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ASTL — Algoma Steel Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:15:46Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ASTL scores 57 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 0% and FCF yield is 0%. For a prospective investor, this is the weakest-signaling area: the rating reflects no reported return on invested capital and no free-cash-flow yield in the source data.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. It is a moderate score, indicating some institutional activity without a strong conviction signal.
  • Insider Conviction: 9 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the second-weakest pillar and suggests limited insider conviction in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity considered. The score indicates the stock's market sensitivity is not a source of strength in the rating.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. This is a moderate score; balance-sheet metrics are the relatively steadier element of the rating.

Taken together, the rating points to weak operating fundamentals (no reported ROIC or FCF yield), limited insider conviction, and a balance sheet that is moderately sound. For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside drivers are limited to the institutional-flow and balance-sheet pillars; the valuation tradeoff is that the fundamental cash engine offers no quantified return in the source data to support the current price of $4.99. This is an analytical framing of the rating, not personalized financial advice.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, six items are listed, all marked YELLOW under the MARKET WIRE impact label:

  • A Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering ASTL market action and institutional positioning.
  • A Simply Wall St report covering ASTL market action and fundamental catalysts.
  • A Moomoo report covering ASTL options chain and market action.
  • A Yahoo Finance earnings preview indicating that Q3 earnings are expected to decline.
  • A Seeking Alpha item referencing the 2026 Q3 results and earnings call presentation dated 2026-11-01.
  • A Stock Titan item noting a quarterly results review call set for 11 a.m. ET Oct. 29, after results are released.

Risk watch item: the earnings preview's expectation of a Q3 decline is the most directly fundamental catalyst in the feed. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no proprietary signals and no butterfly links recorded.

Open Questions

  • What are ASTL's reported revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow across recent periods, given the financials section is empty?
  • Why are ROIC and FCF yield both recorded as 0%, and is this a true zero or a missing-data placeholder?
  • What are the current P/E, forward P/E, and EV/EBITDA multiples, which the source data does not provide?
  • What analyst consensus rating and price targets exist, given the analyst data section is empty?
  • What is the identity and size of the institutional and insider holders, given the holders section is empty?

ASTL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ASTL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ASTL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.77?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ASTL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ASTL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $5.39 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ASTL (D+ • RQD 57/100) a Buy at $4.99?

Welcome to the ASTL (Algoma Steel Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 57/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Steel/Iron Ore. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.99 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $4.99

Pump the brakes on ASTL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ASTL, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Algoma Steel Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.14 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $4.99

ASTL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ASTL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Steel/Iron Ore and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $4.99 (52-wk range $3.16 - $5.90), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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