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HBCP (53) PBFS (55) NECB (71) TSBK (69) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$23.61 +0.47% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.59

Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $469.3M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AVBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Avidia Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: AVBC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $23.61 (+0.47% 1D, market cap $469.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AVBC ranks #492 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AVBC compare to HBCP and PBFS in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Banks), AVBC carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -0.9%. By comparison, HBCP (Home Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $477.0M) and PBFS (Pioneer Bancorp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $447.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBC?
β–Ό

Per AVBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002058758), Avidia Bancorp Inc. generated $1.19B in revenue (+6.8% YoY), -$3.3M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $2.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.58 (-0.11%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) β€’ 2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 52.2% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510057
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ Β· Rk C-
Cash (11)Whales (14)SEC (10)Macro (14)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$28 Bull$24 Base$18 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AVBC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVBC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±3.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AVBC SCORES 57/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±3.3% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 99% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 73.2 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$21.95+0.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$22.08+4.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$23.16+1.9% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$23.61-0.2% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (49) β†’ D+ (57)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AVBC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, AVBC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.17) or 200D SMA ($20.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.50) toward Bear Floor ($18.33).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVBCβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAVBC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.8% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $19,307

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $348/yr
$10.7K
Yr 1
$11.4K
Yr 2
$12.2K
Yr 3
$13.0K
Yr 4
$13.9K
Yr 5
$14.8K
Yr 6
$15.8K
Yr 7
$16.9K
Yr 8
$18.1K
Yr 9
$19.3K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVBC)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of AVBC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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AVBC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.08%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $23.54H $23.61L $23.50C $23.61VOL 122.0K
RES: $23.78SUP: $22.04SMA50: $22.17SMA200: $20.47
$24.19$22.24$20.30$18.35$16.41RES $23.78SUP $22.04$23.612026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVBC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ AVBC Butterfly Map β†’ + Track AVBC β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVBC today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVBC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVBC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVBC)

Financials Rank #492 of 1097 βš”οΈ HBCP vs AVBC Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AVBC vs. HBCP, PBFS, NECB, TSBK)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) ranks #492 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #717 by equity capitalization ($469.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and β€” gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with AVBC at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AVBC ACTIVE
Avidia Bancorp Inc.
D+ 57/100 β€” β€” -0.9% +0.47% $469.3M Benchmark Subject
HBCP
Home Bancorp Inc.
D+ 53/100 10.5x β€” 10.6% +2.22% $477.0M /hbcp-vs-avbc β†’
PBFS
Pioneer Bancorp Inc.
D+ 55/100 22.2x β€” 6.3% +2.33% $447.9M /pbfs-vs-avbc β†’
NECB
NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.
B- 71/100 9.0x β€” 12.6% +1.63% $398.0M /necb-vs-avbc β†’
TSBK
Timberland Bancorp Inc.
C+ 69/100 12.6x β€” 10.9% +2.03% $364.1M /tsbk-vs-avbc β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0002058758 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.19B (+6.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.12B ) , GAAP net income of -$3.3M, operating cash flow of $28.4M, and free cash flow of $24.1M (+17.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVBC closed FY2025 with $2.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.19B -$3.3M $28.4M $24.1M $2.84B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.12B $11.5M $23.2M $20.4M $2.66B β€”

3. AVBC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Avidia Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: AVBC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $23.61 (+0.47% 1D, market cap $469.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AVBC ranks #492 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVBC compare to HBCP and PBFS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), AVBC carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -0.9%. By comparison, HBCP (Home Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $477.0M) and PBFS (Pioneer Bancorp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $447.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBC?

Per AVBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002058758), Avidia Bancorp Inc. generated $1.19B in revenue (+6.8% YoY), -$3.3M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $2.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVBC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVBC last traded at $23.61 (+0.47% on volume of 129,516 shares), positioning the stock +6.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.17) and +15.34% above its 200-day simple moving average ($20.47). Across its 52-week range of $14.84 to $23.72, AVBC sits at the 98.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.2 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±3.3% ($22.83 to $24.39).

Direct Sub-Reports: AVBC RQD Cockpit AVBC 12M Forecast AVBC Earnings & Move AVBC Dividends & DRIP AVBC Insiders & 13F AVBC Whale Options AVBC Profit Sankey AVBC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 57/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AVBC β€” Avidia Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $23.61 (+0.47% 1D, market capitalization $469.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.9%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 5.12%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Banks industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $469.3M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.9% (free cash flow yield of 5.12%). Within the Banks peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) reported $1.19B in annual revenue (up from $1.12B in FY2024, +6.8% YoY) and -$3.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($1.12B revenue, $11.5M net income) through FY2025, AVBC scaled operating cash flow to $28.4M and free cash flow to $24.1M, backed by $2.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 57/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 5.12% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $14.84 – $23.72 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Banks (Financials), AVBC carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of β€”.

  • Key Question #1: Can AVBC sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and -0.9% ROIC against Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.19B and free cash flow of $24.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AVBC's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AVBC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AVBC Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AVBC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $23.61?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AVBC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AVBC:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Options Flow Specialist πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $27.73 (+18.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Positive free cash flow yield of 5.12% and FY 2025 FCF of $24.1M, alongside a reported Q3 earnings beat and a $23.8 million share repur

Here is why I am bullish on AVBC here at $23.50: Positive free cash flow yield of 5.12% and FY 2025 FCF of $24.1M, alongside a reported Q3 earnings beat and a $23.8 million share repurchase.. Compare AVBC's 0.0% operating margin and -0.9% ROIC against the rest of Banks. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $22.32 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $20.21 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $23.50

Negative ROIC of -0.9%, a Piotroski F-Score of 3 of 9, and a FY 2025 net loss of -$3.3M after FY 2024 net income of $11.5M.

Careful chasing AVBC at $23.50. Negative ROIC of -0.9%, a Piotroski F-Score of 3 of 9, and a FY 2025 net loss of -$3.3M after FY 2024 net income of $11.5M.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $20.21 on multiple compression.

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