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GALT (37) SPRY (20) CYPH (42) TTRX (38) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AVIR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$4.10 -0.24% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.09

Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AVIR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $329.6M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AVIR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AVIR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $4.10 (-0.24% 1D, market cap $329.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AVIR ranks #677 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AVIR compare to GALT and SPRY in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVIR carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GALT (Galectin Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $335.6M) and SPRY (ARS Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $336.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CYPH leads on earnings multiple (71.3x) while CYPH leads on capital efficiency (-23.3% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVIR?
β–Ό

Per AVIR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001593899), Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $506.5M in revenue (-6.3% YoY), -$158.0M in net income, and -$132.0M in free cash flow against $315.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.09 (-0.23%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510033
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E Β· Rk D-
Cash (7)Whales (4)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target
$7 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AVIR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVIR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±11.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AVIR SCORES 33/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
41
Grade D$4.98-10.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$4.47-6.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
36
Grade E$4.17-1.7% Next Q
Current
33
Grade E$4.10-8.9% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (41) β†’ E (33)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVIR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While AVIR currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.99) and Max Pain ($4.31) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.77.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVIRβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAVIR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±11.2%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AVIR)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AVIR.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVIR)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of AVIR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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AVIR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.07%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $4.31H $4.31L $4.10C $4.10VOL 349.9K
RES: $6.58SUP: $3.94SMA50: $4.99SMA200: $4.94
$6.05$5.44$4.84$4.24$3.63RES $6.58SUP $3.94$4.102026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVIR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ AVIR Butterfly Map β†’ + Track AVIR β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -6.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVIR today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVIR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVIR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVIR)

Health Care Rank #677 of 1015 βš”οΈ GALT vs AVIR Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVIR vs. GALT, SPRY, CYPH, TTRX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AVIR) ranks #677 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #505 by equity capitalization ($329.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CYPH leads on earnings valuation at 71.3x trailing P/E, while CYPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -23.3% ROIC and β€” gross margin. CYPH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 42/100 (D-) compared with AVIR at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AVIR ACTIVE
Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 33/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -0.24% $329.6M Benchmark Subject
GALT
Galectin Therapeutics Inc.
D- 37/100 β€” β€” -35.0% +0.30% $335.6M /galt-vs-avir β†’
SPRY
ARS Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 20/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -9.76% $336.1M /spry-vs-avir β†’
CYPH
Cypherpunk Technologies Inc.
D- 42/100 71.3x β€” -23.3% -20.80% $321.1M /cyph-vs-avir β†’
TTRX
Turn Therapeutics Inc.
D- 38/100 β€” β€” -28.3% -7.48% $318.5M /ttrx-vs-avir β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001593899 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AVIR) reported GAAP revenue of $506.5M (-6.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $540.3M , and +10.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$158.0M, operating cash flow of -$132.0M, and free cash flow of -$132.0M (+2.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVIR closed FY2025 with $315.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $506.5M -$158.0M -$132.0M -$132.0M $315.2M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $540.3M -$168.0M -$135.5M -$135.5M $464.7M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $459.7M -$136.0M -$85.4M -$85.4M β€” β€”

3. AVIR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVIR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AVIR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $4.10 (-0.24% 1D, market cap $329.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AVIR ranks #677 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVIR compare to GALT and SPRY in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVIR carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GALT (Galectin Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $335.6M) and SPRY (ARS Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $336.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CYPH leads on earnings multiple (71.3x) while CYPH leads on capital efficiency (-23.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVIR?

Per AVIR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001593899), Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $506.5M in revenue (-6.3% YoY), -$158.0M in net income, and -$132.0M in free cash flow against $315.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVIR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVIR last traded at $4.10 (-0.24% on volume of 330,313 shares), positioning the stock -17.84% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.99) and -17.00% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.94). Across its 52-week range of $2.87 to $6.45, AVIR sits at the 34.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±11.2% ($3.64 to $4.56).

Direct Sub-Reports: AVIR RQD Cockpit AVIR 12M Forecast AVIR Earnings & Move AVIR Dividends & DRIP AVIR Insiders & 13F AVIR Whale Options AVIR Profit Sankey AVIR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 33/100 (E) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AVIR β€” Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AVIR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 33/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $4.10 (-0.24% 1D, market capitalization $329.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of β€”.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AVIR) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..3B. Reported revenue is β€” across FY 2023–FY 2025, indicating no reported product revenue in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AVIR) reported $506.5M in annual revenue (up from $540.3M in FY2024, -6.3% YoY) and -$158.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($459.7M revenue, -$136.0M net income) through FY2025, AVIR scaled operating cash flow to -$132.0M and free cash flow to -$132.0M, backed by $315.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (E β€’ RQD 33/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of β€” and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.87 – $6.45 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), AVIR carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of β€”.

  • Key Question #1: Can AVIR sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $506.5M and free cash flow of -$132.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AVIR's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AVIR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AVIR) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AVIR Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AVIR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $4.10?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AVIR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AVIR:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ FCF Compounder Hunter πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.26 (+28.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

The stock trades near its 52-week low of $2.87 range with a 0.94% daily move and an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, suggesting a balance sheet n

Picked up a starter position in AVIR in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $4.11. The stock trades near its 52-week low of $2.87 range with a 0.94% daily move and an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, suggesting a balance sheet not yet in distress territory.. Trading inside a $2.87–$6.45 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd πŸ‚ BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.16 (-23.1%)
Spot @ $4.11

Free cash flow of -$132.0M against $95.7M cash, ROIC of -35%, and an RQD score of 34 (grade E) point to ongoing cash burn with no repor

Free cash flow of -$132.0M against $95.7M cash, ROIC of -35%, and an RQD score of 34 (grade E) point to ongoing cash burn with no reported revenue.. Look at the math on AVIR: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $3.62 before getting long.

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