Seeking Alpha report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why AVTX Stock dropped -3.63% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 17/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is AVTX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: AVTX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 17/100 at a spot price of $7.17 (-3.63% 1D, market cap $384.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVTX ranks #1007 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does AVTX compare to RZLT and RLMD in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVTX carries a Roarable E (17/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, RZLT (Rezolute Inc. (NV)) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $382.1M) and RLMD (Relmada Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $381.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AVTX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ALT leads on capital efficiency (-34.7% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVTX?
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Per AVTX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001534120), Avalo Therapeutics Inc. generated $59.0K in revenue (-86.6% YoY), -$78.3M in net income, and -$51.5M in free cash flow against $116.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVTX Turnaround Squeeze
While AVTX currently carries a cautious 17/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.28) and Max Pain ($7.53) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.48.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Why AVTX Stock dropped -3.63% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) dropped -3.63% to $7.17, trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($6.53 – $24.27). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($6.53 – $24.27) with RSI-14 at 24.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $7.17 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Yahoo Finance report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Moomoo report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Timothy Sykes report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
WAYNE, Pa., Nov. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: AVTX), a clinical stage biotechnology company dedicated to developing therapeutics targeting the IL-1β pathway for immune-mediated inflammat
Healthcare stocks were lower late Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Healthcare Index dropping 1.3% and
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVTX)
- ✓Walkthrough of AVTX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
AVTX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVTX today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVTX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVTX)
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVTX vs. RZLT, RLMD, ALT, CAPR)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) ranks #1007 by composite RQD confidence (17/100, grade E) and #480 by equity capitalization ($384.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AVTX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ALT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -34.7% ROIC and — gross margin. RZLT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 37/100 (D-) compared with AVTX at 17/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVTX
ACTIVE
Avalo Therapeutics Inc. | E | 17/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -3.63% | $384.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| RZLT Rezolute Inc. (NV) | D- | 37/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -4.13% | $382.1M | /rzlt-vs-avtx → |
| RLMD Relmada Therapeutics Inc. | E | 30/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +4.07% | $381.9M | /rlmd-vs-avtx → |
| ALT Altimmune Inc. | E | 21/100 | — | — | -34.7% | -4.67% | $396.8M | /alt-vs-avtx → |
| CAPR Capricor Therapeutics Inc. | E | 34/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -3.77% | $370.9M | /capr-vs-avtx → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001534120In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) reported GAAP revenue of $59.0K (-86.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $441.0K , and -96.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$78.3M, operating cash flow of -$51.5M, and free cash flow of -$51.5M (-4.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVTX closed FY2025 with $116.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.66, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $59.0K | -$78.3M | -$51.5M | -$51.5M | $116.5M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $441.0K | -$35.1M | -$49.1M | -$49.1M | $150.7M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.9M | -$31.5M | -$30.7M | -$30.7M | — | — |
3. AVTX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AVTX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: AVTX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 17/100 at a spot price of $7.17 (-3.63% 1D, market cap $384.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVTX ranks #1007 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AVTX compare to RZLT and RLMD in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVTX carries a Roarable E (17/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, RZLT (Rezolute Inc. (NV)) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $382.1M) and RLMD (Relmada Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $381.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AVTX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ALT leads on capital efficiency (-34.7% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVTX?
Per AVTX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001534120), Avalo Therapeutics Inc. generated $59.0K in revenue (-86.6% YoY), -$78.3M in net income, and -$51.5M in free cash flow against $116.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AVTX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AVTX last traded at $7.17 (-3.63% on volume of 1,534,548 shares), positioning the stock -49.79% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.28) and -55.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.95). Across its 52-week range of $6.53 to $24.27, AVTX sits at the 3.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 24.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.27 to $8.07).
AVTX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AVTX stock moving today?
Why AVTX Stock dropped -3.63% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
AVTX — Avalo Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, AVTX carries an RQD score of 17 out of 100, letter grade E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars, each scored out of 20, are:
- Fundamental cash engine: 5 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of -12.9%. For a prospective investor, this means the business is currently consuming cash rather than generating it, so the equity case depends on future value that the source data does not quantify.
- Whale / 13F flow: 3 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The source data does not provide 13F detail (see Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership), so the low score signals weak institutional support as summarized by the rating system.
- Insider conviction: 3 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A low score indicates insider and political-disclosure activity is not providing a supportive signal.
- Macro regime fit: 4 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity considered. The stock's beta is in line with the market, but the score indicates limited alignment with the prevailing regime.
- Forensic balance sheet: 2 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects an Altman Z-Score of 0.66, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. This is the weakest pillar and the most direct flag on financial distress risk.
Investor implications: Upside drivers are limited to the catalysts described below rather than the reported financials. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to assess because P/E, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS are not available in source data; investors are therefore relying on cash-flow and balance-sheet indicators that are negative or weak. The principal ripple risk is that continued cash burn combined with the forensic balance-sheet readings could pressure the company's ability to fund operations without additional capital, though the source data does not confirm financing plans.
Business
Avalo Therapeutics Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry, per the company profile. The profile reports a market capitalization of $0.4B. The source data does not describe the company's products, customers, or revenue model beyond its sector classification. Reported revenue in the SEC financials is small, at $0.1M for FY 2025, per the SEC financials.
Financial Trend
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $0.1M | $-72.9M | $-78.3M | N/A | $-51.5M | $15.9M | N/A |
| FY 2024 | $0.4M | $-68.5M | $-35.1M | N/A | $-49.1M | $134.5M | N/A |
| FY 2023 | $1.9M | $-27.4M | $-31.5M | N/A | $-30.7M | N/A | N/A |
Per the SEC financials, the company reported losses in each period shown, with operating income of $-72.9M in FY 2025 against $-68.5M in FY 2024. Per the market data, operating margin and net margin are each -60%, gross margin is 0%, and ROIC is -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 0.66 and the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9. Cash declined from $134.5M in FY 2024 to $15.9M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials, and debt is reported as N/A.
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
Per the recent news and catalysts feed, the items are:
- Seeking Alpha (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A report titled "Avalo Therapeutics: Contrarian 'Buy' Ahead Of Abdakibart's Phase 3" frames the stock as a contrarian buy ahead of a Phase 3 program.
- Yahoo Finance (RISK WATCH, RED): A report on Guggenheim downgrading the stock to Neutral from Buy.
- Investing.com (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A report that H.C. Wainwright reiterated a buy rating.
- TradingView (CATALYST, GREEN): A report that Wedbush maintained an Outperform rating with a $22 price target.
- Moomoo (RISK WATCH, RED): A report that Oppenheimer maintained a Buy rating but cut its target price to $16.
- Trefis (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A market movers report listing AVTX among the losers.
Per the butterfly supply-chain graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded: the supply chain is listed as NONE. The news flow is mixed, with two risk-watch items, two catalyst or buy-rated items, and two market-wire items.
Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is NONE and no butterfly links are recorded, so no upstream or downstream dependencies can be mapped from the source data. Sector correlations and 2nd-order bottlenecks are not available in source data beyond the sector and industry classification. A prospective investor should watch whether the Phase 3 program referenced in the news feed affects the company's cash position, given that FY 2025 cash fell to $15.9M per the SEC financials; the source data does not establish that linkage.
Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership
Analyst data in the source is NONE, so no consensus rating or price target is available from that section. Holder data is also NONE, so no SEC Form 4 insider, 13F whale, or Congressional trade detail is available from that section. Analyst-firm actions are reported in the news feed only: per the recent news feed, Wedbush maintained Outperform with a $22 target, Oppenheimer maintained Buy with a $16 target, H.C. Wainwright reiterated buy, and Guggenheim downgraded to Neutral.
Open Questions
- What is the status and timeline of the Phase 3 program referenced in the news feed, and what is its funding source?
- How will the company fund operations given cash of $15.9M at FY 2025 and an FCF of $-51.5M?
- What explains the absence of debt disclosure (reported as N/A), and what is the full capital structure?
- Why do analyst targets range from $16 to $22 when the stock trades at $7.44, and what assumptions drive that gap?
- What insider, 13F, or Congressional holding activity underlies the insider-conviction and whale-flow pillar scores?
AVTX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Seeking Alpha report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Moomoo report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Timothy Sykes report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering Avalo Therapeutics Inc. (AVTX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
AVTX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $7.17?
🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AVTX (E • RQD 17/100) a Buy at $7.44?
Welcome to the AVTX (Avalo Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 17/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Pump the brakes on AVTX — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AVTX, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Avalo Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
AVTX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AVTX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $7.44 (52-wk range $6.53 - $24.27), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.