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Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$166.34 +0.24% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $166.81

Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (40.6% gross margin, 29% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $6.96B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AWI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AWI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Armstrong World Industries Inc (NYSE: AWI) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $166.34 (+0.24% 1D, market cap $6.96B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, AWI ranks #31 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AWI compare to ATR and NWL in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Plastic Products), AWI carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.5x, gross margin of 40.6%, and ROIC of 28.7%. By comparison, ATR (AptarGroup Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 21.1x, ROIC 11.9%, cap $8.72B) and NWL (Newell Brands Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.5%, cap $2.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATR leads on earnings multiple (21.1x) while AWI leads on capital efficiency (28.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AWI?
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Per AWI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000007431), Armstrong World Industries Inc generated $1.62B in revenue (+12.1% YoY), $308.7M in net income, and $282.6M in free cash flow against $1.92B in total assets and $396.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (40.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $166.81 (+0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 17.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510071
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (19)Whales (9)SEC (18)Macro (8)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target
$216 Bull$176 Base$136 Bear
📬 FREE AWI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AWI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AWI SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 17.4% FCF Margin ($282.6M FCF) & 40.6% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 7.49 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (52.2) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$163.43+3.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$168.74-7.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$156.66+6.2% Next Q
Current
71
Grade B-$166.34+6.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AWI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, AWI faces multiple-compression risk if 22.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 38.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($165.37) or 200D SMA ($169.05) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($176.07) toward Bear Floor ($136.40).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AWI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AWI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AWI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $166.34: 60.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $136.40
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $176.07
$10,585
+$585 (+5.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $216.35
$13,006
+$3,006 (+30.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$18374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$20369%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$15658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AWI Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AWI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.66%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $166.0H $166.3L $166.0C $166.3VOL 616.2K
RES: $171.1SUP: $151.5SMA50: $165.4SMA200: $169.1
$191.3$180.2$169.1$157.9$146.8RES $171.1SUP $151.5$166.32026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AWI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AWI Butterfly Map → + Track AWI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
16.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AWI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AWI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AWI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AWI)

Industrials Rank #31 of 486 ⚔️ ATR vs AWI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AWI vs. ATR, NWL, ENTG, MYE)

Industry: Plastic Products (9 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) ranks #31 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #121 by equity capitalization ($6.96B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ATR leads on earnings valuation at 21.1x trailing P/E, while AWI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 28.7% ROIC and 40.6% gross margin. AWI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AWI ACTIVE
Armstrong World Industries Inc
B- 71/100 22.5x 40.6% 28.7% +0.24% $6.96B Benchmark Subject
ATR
AptarGroup Inc.
C+ 69/100 21.1x — 11.9% +5.02% $8.72B /atr-vs-awi →
NWL
Newell Brands Inc.
D- 40/100 — 33.8% 0.5% +1.97% $2.21B /nwl-vs-awi →
ENTG
Entegris Inc.
C+ 66/100 103.8x 44.4% 4.7% -3.51% $23.59B /entg-vs-awi →
MYE
Myers Industries Inc.
C- 61/100 32.7x 33.4% 10.4% -2.70% $1.11B /mye-vs-awi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000007431 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.62B (+12.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.45B , and +25.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $308.7M, operating cash flow of $355.5M, and free cash flow of $282.6M (+40.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AWI closed FY2025 with $1.92B in total assets against $396.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.49, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.62B $308.7M $355.5M $282.6M $1.92B $396.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.45B $264.9M $266.8M $201.7M $1.84B $502.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.30B $223.8M $233.5M $175.2M $3.82B $893.5M

3. AWI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AWI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Armstrong World Industries Inc (NYSE: AWI) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $166.34 (+0.24% 1D, market cap $6.96B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, AWI ranks #31 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AWI compare to ATR and NWL in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Plastic Products), AWI carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.5x, gross margin of 40.6%, and ROIC of 28.7%. By comparison, ATR (AptarGroup Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 21.1x, ROIC 11.9%, cap $8.72B) and NWL (Newell Brands Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.5%, cap $2.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATR leads on earnings multiple (21.1x) while AWI leads on capital efficiency (28.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AWI?

Per AWI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000007431), Armstrong World Industries Inc generated $1.62B in revenue (+12.1% YoY), $308.7M in net income, and $282.6M in free cash flow against $1.92B in total assets and $396.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (40.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AWI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AWI last traded at $166.34 (+0.24% on volume of 616,151 shares), positioning the stock +0.59% above its 50-day simple moving average ($165.37) and -1.60% below its 200-day simple moving average ($169.05). Across its 52-week range of $150.28 to $206.05, AWI sits at the 28.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.0% ($156.36 to $176.32).

Direct Sub-Reports: AWI RQD Cockpit AWI 12M Forecast AWI Earnings & Move AWI Dividends & DRIP AWI Insiders & 13F AWI Whale Options AWI Profit Sankey AWI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AWI — Armstrong World Industries Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 71/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $166.34 (+0.24% 1D, market capitalization $6.96B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 28.7%, gross margin of 40.6%, operating margin of 26.6%, and free cash flow yield of 4.07%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.01x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 7.49, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.44x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating within the Plastic Products industry..9B. Revenue and profitability figures appear in the financials section below.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) reported $1.62B in annual revenue (up from $1.45B in FY2024, +12.1% YoY) and $308.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.30B revenue, $223.8M net income) through FY2025, AWI scaled operating cash flow to $355.5M and free cash flow to $282.6M, backed by $1.92B in total assets against $396.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 71/100): Strong cash generator (40.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $150.28 – $206.05 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 22.5x trailing P/E and 14.7x EV/EBITDA against 26.6% operating margins and a 1.01x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and 2nd-order sector correlations are therefore — The sector and industry classification (Industrials; Plastic Products) is the only structural context provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can AWI sustain or expand its 26.6% operating margin and 28.7% ROIC against Plastic Products peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.62B and free cash flow of $282.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $396.4M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AWI's 18.9x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.01x)?

AWI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AWI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AWI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $166.34?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AWI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AWI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $206.26 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Cash generation and balance sheet strength, with ROIC of 28.7% and an Altman Z of 7.49, support the 71 RQD score.

Here is why I am bullish on AWI here at $166.34: Cash generation and balance sheet strength, with ROIC of 28.7% and an Altman Z of 7.49, support the 71 RQD score.. Compare AWI's 26.6% operating margin and 28.7% ROIC against the rest of Plastic Products. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $158.02 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — AWI's 18/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $128.08 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $166.34

Trailing P/E of 22.5 and EV/EBITDA of 14.7 sit above forward P/E of 18.9, and DA Davidson cut its price target on cost pressures.

I respect the product at Armstrong World Industries Inc, but the stock at $166.34 is a different story. Trailing P/E of 22.5 and EV/EBITDA of 14.7 sit above forward P/E of 18.9, and DA Davidson cut its price target on cost pressures.. FCF yield is 4.07% and RQD sits at 71/100 (B-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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