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Stock Ratings / Health Care / AXSM / news
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Why AXSM Stock dropped -5.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$136.01 -5.83% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $134.32

Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (AXSM) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $7.57B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AXSM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: AXSM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $136.01 (-5.83% 1D, market cap $7.57B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AXSM ranks #586 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AXSM compare to ABVX and ALKS in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AXSM carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -21.9%. By comparison, ABVX (Abivax SA) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $7.56B) and ALKS (Alkermes plc) posts a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 31.5x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $7.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALKS leads on earnings multiple (31.5x) while AMRX leads on capital efficiency (14.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AXSM?
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Per AXSM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001579428), Axsome Therapeutics Inc. generated $638.5M in revenue (+65.5% YoY), -$183.2M in net income, and -$93.9M in free cash flow against $689.8M in total assets and $117.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $134.32 (-1.24%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (7)Whales (5)SEC (14)Macro (4)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target
$273 Bull$122 Base$95 Bear
📬 FREE AXSM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AXSM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AXSM SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (40% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.34 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (25.9) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
43
Grade D$162.22-3.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$156.31-8.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$143.51-5.2% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$136.01-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AXSM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AXSM currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($181.01) and Max Pain ($142.81) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $273.20.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AXSM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AXSM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why AXSM Stock dropped -5.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (AXSM) dropped -5.83% to $136.01, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($123.5 – $260.19). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($123.5 – $260.19) with RSI-14 at 25.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.2% around $136.01 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AXSM Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AXSM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AXSM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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AXSM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -39.20%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $143.5H $144.4L $136.0C $136.0VOL 2.17M
RES: $209.6SUP: $127.8SMA50: $181.0SMA200: $198.8
$269.2$231.8$194.4$157.0$119.7RES $209.6SUP $127.8$136.02026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AXSM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AXSM Butterfly Map → + Track AXSM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
27.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +65.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AXSM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AXSM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AXSM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AXSM)

Health Care Rank #586 of 1015 ⚔️ ABVX vs AXSM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AXSM vs. ABVX, ALKS, AMRX, KNSA)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (AXSM) ranks #586 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #128 by equity capitalization ($7.57B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALKS leads on earnings valuation at 31.5x trailing P/E, while AMRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.1% ROIC and 36.9% gross margin. ALKS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with AXSM at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AXSM ACTIVE
Axsome Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -21.9% -5.83% $7.57B Benchmark Subject
ABVX
Abivax SA
D+ 54/100 32.8x — 9.9% -1.94% $7.56B /abvx-vs-axsm →
ALKS
Alkermes plc
B+ 78/100 31.5x 86.7% 14.0% -0.99% $7.61B /alks-vs-axsm →
AMRX
Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc.
B- 71/100 103.2x 36.9% 14.1% -4.97% $7.49B /amrx-vs-axsm →
KNSA
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International plc (Class A)
B- 71/100 129.9x 88.5% 9.9% -1.56% $7.25B /knsa-vs-axsm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001579428 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (AXSM) reported GAAP revenue of $638.5M (+65.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $385.7M , and +136.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$183.2M, operating cash flow of -$93.4M, and free cash flow of -$93.9M (+27.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AXSM closed FY2025 with $689.8M in total assets against $117.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.34, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $638.5M -$183.2M -$93.4M -$93.9M $689.8M $117.7M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $385.7M -$287.2M -$128.4M -$128.7M $568.5M $180.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $270.6M -$239.2M -$145.1M -$157.3M $4.13B $967.1M

3. AXSM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AXSM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: AXSM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $136.01 (-5.83% 1D, market cap $7.57B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AXSM ranks #586 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AXSM compare to ABVX and ALKS in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AXSM carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -21.9%. By comparison, ABVX (Abivax SA) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $7.56B) and ALKS (Alkermes plc) posts a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 31.5x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $7.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALKS leads on earnings multiple (31.5x) while AMRX leads on capital efficiency (14.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AXSM?

Per AXSM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001579428), Axsome Therapeutics Inc. generated $638.5M in revenue (+65.5% YoY), -$183.2M in net income, and -$93.9M in free cash flow against $689.8M in total assets and $117.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AXSM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AXSM last traded at $136.01 (-5.83% on volume of 2,717,814 shares), positioning the stock -24.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($181.01) and -31.58% below its 200-day simple moving average ($198.80). Across its 52-week range of $123.50 to $260.19, AXSM sits at the 9.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 25.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($124.86 to $147.16).

Direct Sub-Reports: AXSM RQD Cockpit AXSM 12M Forecast AXSM Earnings & Move AXSM Dividends & DRIP AXSM Insiders & 13F AXSM Whale Options AXSM Profit Sankey AXSM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AXSM — Axsome Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (AXSM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $136.01 (-5.83% 1D, market capitalization $7.57B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -21.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -26.1%, and free cash flow yield of -1.25%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (4/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.15x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.34, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.33x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Axsome Therapeutics Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The source data identifies the company as a biotechnology pharmaceutical preparations business but does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (AXSM) reported $638.5M in annual revenue (up from $385.7M in FY2024, +65.5% YoY) and -$183.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($270.6M revenue, -$239.2M net income) through FY2025, AXSM scaled operating cash flow to -$93.4M and free cash flow to -$93.9M, backed by $689.8M in total assets against $117.7M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -1.25% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $123.50 – $260.19 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -26.1% operating margins and a 1.15x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), AXSM carries a macro regime beta of 1.15 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can AXSM sustain or expand its -26.1% operating margin and -21.9% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $638.5M and free cash flow of -$93.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $117.7M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AXSM's 35.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.15x)?

AXSM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (AXSM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AXSM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AXSM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $136.01?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AXSM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AXSM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $167.54 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported revenue grew from $270.6M in FY 2023 to $638.5M in FY 2025 while reported debt fell from $967.1M to $117.7M, and the forensic

Picked up a starter position in AXSM in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $144.43. Reported revenue grew from $270.6M in FY 2023 to $638.5M in FY 2025 while reported debt fell from $967.1M to $117.7M, and the forensic balance sheet pillar scored 14 of 20.. Trading inside a $131.26–$260.19 52-week range with -1.25% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — AXSM's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $116.99 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $144.43

ROIC of -21.9%, FCF of -$93.9M in FY 2025, and an RQD score of 35 (D-) indicate the business is not yet generating cash returns on its

Careful chasing AXSM at $144.43. ROIC of -21.9%, FCF of -$93.9M in FY 2025, and an RQD score of 35 (D-) indicate the business is not yet generating cash returns on its capital.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -26.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $116.99 on multiple compression.

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