ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account β†’
β–Ύ
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚑ My $100K Trading Account β†’ β˜… My Saved Watchlist β†’
🟒 My $100K Account β†’ Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record πŸ’° $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions πŸ›οΈ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Technology / AXTI / options
DIOD (51) ENPH (44) KLIC (51) OSIS (53) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

AXT Inc (AXTI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$48.20 -12.46% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.03

AXT Inc (AXTI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $3.61B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AXTI Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AXTI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, AXT Inc (NASDAQ: AXTI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $48.20 (-12.46% 1D, market cap $3.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, AXTI ranks #504 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AXTI compare to DIOD and ENPH in the Technology sector?
β–Ό

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AXTI carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 12.7%, and ROIC of -5.4%. By comparison, DIOD (Diodes Incorporated) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 61.1x, ROIC 1.9%, cap $3.69B) and ENPH (Enphase Energy Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 19.9x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $3.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ENPH leads on earnings multiple (19.9x) while OSIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AXTI?
β–Ό

Per AXTI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001051627), AXT Inc generated $88.3M in revenue (-11.1% YoY), -$21.3M in net income, and -$18.8M in free cash flow against $433.8M in total assets and $44.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.03 (-2.43%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510036
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E Β· Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (7)SEC (11)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
$150 Bull$43 Base$34 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AXTI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AXTI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AXTI SCORES 36/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 24.42 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 12.7% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$61.59-3.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$59.28+8.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$64.38-25.1% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$48.20-8.3% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (44) β†’ D- (36)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AXTI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While AXTI currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($65.72) and Max Pain ($50.61) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $150.32.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AXTIβ€’ $4.8M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAXTI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AXTI)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AXTI.

Sponsored / Partner SpotlightACTIVE TRADER & PROP EVALUATION DESK

Practice in Our Weekly $100,000 Paper Arena Before Risking Personal Capital

Keep your personal nest egg in cash while trading NQ, ES, Crude, and Gold momentum using institutional prop-desk buying power.

FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

πŸ† Enter Free $100K Paper Arena β†’
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AXTI)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of AXTI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) β†’$100K Arena
AXTI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -54.53%β–Ό SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $60.88H $60.88L $48.20C $48.20VOL 14.81M
RES: $82.70SUP: $49.62SMA50: $65.72SMA200: $65.40
$151.6$116.5$81.39$46.26$11.14RES $82.70SUP $49.62$48.202026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AXTI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ AXTI Butterfly Map β†’ + Track AXTI β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -11.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AXTI today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AXTI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AXTI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AXTI)

Technology Rank #504 of 715 βš”οΈ DIOD vs AXTI Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AXTI vs. DIOD, ENPH, KLIC, OSIS)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AXT Inc (AXTI) ranks #504 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #238 by equity capitalization ($3.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ENPH leads on earnings valuation at 19.9x trailing P/E, while OSIS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and 34.3% gross margin. OSIS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with AXTI at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AXTI ACTIVE
AXT Inc
D- 36/100 β€” 12.7% -5.4% -12.46% $3.61B Benchmark Subject
DIOD
Diodes Incorporated
D 51/100 61.1x 31.2% 1.9% -0.51% $3.69B /diod-vs-axti β†’
ENPH
Enphase Energy Inc.
D 44/100 19.9x 46.6% 10.5% +8.89% $3.39B /enph-vs-axti β†’
KLIC
Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc.
D 51/100 β€” 42.5% -0.5% -4.06% $3.88B /klic-vs-axti β†’
OSIS
OSI Systems Inc.
D+ 53/100 21.9x 34.3% 11.4% -0.27% $3.14B /osis-vs-axti β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001051627 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AXT Inc (AXTI) reported GAAP revenue of $88.3M (-11.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $99.4M , and +16.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$21.3M, operating cash flow of -$12.8M, and free cash flow of -$18.8M (-5.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AXTI closed FY2025 with $433.8M in total assets against $44.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 24.42, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $88.3M -$21.3M -$12.8M -$18.8M $433.8M $44.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $99.4M -$11.6M -$12.1M -$17.9M $339.3M $38.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $75.8M -$17.9M $3.4M -$7.8K $2.20B $513.8M

3. AXTI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AXTI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, AXT Inc (NASDAQ: AXTI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $48.20 (-12.46% 1D, market cap $3.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, AXTI ranks #504 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AXTI compare to DIOD and ENPH in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AXTI carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 12.7%, and ROIC of -5.4%. By comparison, DIOD (Diodes Incorporated) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 61.1x, ROIC 1.9%, cap $3.69B) and ENPH (Enphase Energy Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 19.9x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $3.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ENPH leads on earnings multiple (19.9x) while OSIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AXTI?

Per AXTI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001051627), AXT Inc generated $88.3M in revenue (-11.1% YoY), -$21.3M in net income, and -$18.8M in free cash flow against $433.8M in total assets and $44.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AXTI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AXTI last traded at $48.20 (-12.46% on volume of 15,390,469 shares), positioning the stock -26.66% below its 50-day simple moving average ($65.72) and -26.30% below its 200-day simple moving average ($65.40). Across its 52-week range of $7.80 to $143.16, AXTI sits at the 29.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($42.17 to $54.23).

Direct Sub-Reports: AXTI RQD Cockpit AXTI 12M Forecast AXTI Earnings & Move AXTI Dividends & DRIP AXTI Insiders & 13F AXTI Whale Options AXTI Profit Sankey AXTI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 36/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AXTI β€” AXT Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

AXT Inc (AXTI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $48.20 (-12.46% 1D, market capitalization $3.61B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -5.4%, gross margin of 12.7%, operating margin of -24.9%, and free cash flow yield of -0.47%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.42x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 24.42, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.15x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

AXT Inc (AXTI) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating within the Semiconductors industry. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $88.3M. Gross margin is 12.7% per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), AXT Inc (AXTI) reported $88.3M in annual revenue (up from $99.4M in FY2024, -11.1% YoY) and -$21.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($75.8M revenue, -$17.9M net income) through FY2025, AXTI scaled operating cash flow to -$12.8M and free cash flow to -$18.8M, backed by $433.8M in total assets against $44.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -0.47% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.80 – $143.16 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -24.9% operating margins and a 1.42x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Semiconductors (Technology), AXTI carries a macro regime beta of 1.42 and gross margin of 12.7%.

  • Key Question #1: Can AXTI sustain or expand its -24.9% operating margin and -5.4% ROIC against Semiconductors peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $88.3M and free cash flow of -$18.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $44.6M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AXTI's 33.0x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.42x)?

AXTI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AXT Inc (AXTI) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AXTI Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AXTI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $48.20?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AXTI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AXTI:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Growth & Tech Investor πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $67.72 (+23.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet metrics are strong (Altman Z 24.42, Debt/Equity 0.15) and the forward P/E of 33 implies earnings recovery is exp

The street is overcomplicating AXT Inc (AXTI). Forensic balance sheet metrics are strong (Altman Z 24.42, Debt/Equity 0.15) and the forward P/E of 33 implies earnings recovery is expected.. With an RQD score of 36/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $59.46.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” AXTI's 11/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $46.80 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $55.06

Negative ROIC (-5.4%), negative FCF yield (-0.47%), and an Insider Conviction pillar score of 3/20 point to weak cash generation and no

Negative ROIC (-5.4%), negative FCF yield (-0.47%), and an Insider Conviction pillar score of 3/20 point to weak cash generation and no insider support.. Look at the math on AXTI: paying 33.0x forward P/E for -5.4% ROIC and -24.9% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Semiconductors demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $48.45 before getting long.

LIVE TAPE