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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / AZUL / forecast
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Azul S.A. each representing two (2) (AZUL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$4.21 +5.25% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.24

Azul S.A. each representing two (2) (AZUL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $801.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AZUL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Azul S.A. each representing two (2) (NYSE: AZUL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $4.21 (+5.25% 1D, market cap $801.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AZUL ranks #563 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AZUL compare to VLRS and RJET in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), AZUL carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, VLRS (Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $744.8M) and RJET (Republic Airways Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $904.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJET leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while RJET leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AZUL?
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For Azul S.A. each representing two (2) (AZUL), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #563 in Consumer Discretionary, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.24 (+0.75%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510049
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4% Base Target
$10 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE AZUL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AZUL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AZUL SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 0.6% FCF Margin ($22.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$7.06-8.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$6.45-46.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
52
Grade C-$3.46+21.7% Next Q
Current
49
Grade D$4.21-5.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AZUL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AZUL currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.51) and Max Pain ($4.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.32.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AZUL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AZUL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AZUL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.21: 2375.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.15
$7,482
$-2,518 (-25.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.04
$9,596
$-404 (-4.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $10.32
$24,513
+$14,513 (+145.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AZUL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AZUL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AZUL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -53.38%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $3.86H $4.21L $3.86C $4.21VOL 602.8K
RES: $7.05SUP: $3.02SMA50: $6.51SMA200: $7.68
$10.28$8.40$6.53$4.65$2.77RES $7.05SUP $3.02$4.212026-05-282026-07-082026-08-172026-09-242026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AZUL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AZUL Butterfly Map → + Track AZUL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AZUL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AZUL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AZUL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AZUL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #563 of 1009 ⚔️ VLRS vs AZUL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AZUL vs. VLRS, RJET, JBLU, ULCC)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Azul S.A. each representing two (2) (AZUL) ranks #563 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #532 by equity capitalization ($801.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJET leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while RJET leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.1% ROIC and — gross margin. AZUL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AZUL ACTIVE
Azul S.A. each representing two (2)
D 49/100 — — — +5.25% $801.7M Benchmark Subject
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates
D 48/100 — — — +6.86% $744.8M /vlrs-vs-azul →
RJET
Republic Airways Holdings Inc.
D 46/100 12.3x — 11.1% +1.66% $904.6M /rjet-vs-azul →
JBLU
JetBlue Airways Corporation
E 22/100 — — -35.0% +11.23% $1.08B /jblu-vs-azul →
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings Inc.
E 32/100 — — -35.0% +15.19% $1.49B /ulcc-vs-azul →

2. AZUL Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Azul S.A. each representing two (2) (AZUL) operates in Air Freight/Delivery Services (Consumer Discretionary) with an equity capitalization of $801.7M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. AZUL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AZUL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Azul S.A. each representing two (2) (NYSE: AZUL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $4.21 (+5.25% 1D, market cap $801.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AZUL ranks #563 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AZUL compare to VLRS and RJET in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), AZUL carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, VLRS (Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $744.8M) and RJET (Republic Airways Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $904.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJET leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while RJET leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AZUL?

For Azul S.A. each representing two (2) (AZUL), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #563 in Consumer Discretionary, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AZUL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AZUL last traded at $4.21 (+5.25% on volume of 282,352 shares), positioning the stock -35.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.51) and -45.18% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.68). Across its 52-week range of $3.35 to $9.83, AZUL sits at the 13.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.68 to $4.74).

Direct Sub-Reports: AZUL RQD Cockpit AZUL 12M Forecast AZUL Earnings & Move AZUL Dividends & DRIP AZUL Insiders & 13F AZUL Whale Options AZUL Profit Sankey AZUL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AZUL — Azul S.A. each representing two (2): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Azul S.A. Each representing two (2) (AZUL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 49/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.21 (+5.25% 1D, market capitalization $801.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Azul S.A. Each representing two (2) is listed on the NYSE under the ticker AZUL..

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 49/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.35 – $9.83 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The sector is listed as Consumer Discretionary and the industry as Air Freight/Delivery Services. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can AZUL sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Air Freight/Delivery Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $9.83 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AZUL's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AZUL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Azul S.A. each representing two (2) (AZUL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AZUL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AZUL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.21?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AZUL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AZUL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.16 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13/20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and Debt/Equity of 0.5, the strongest pillar in the rating.

The street is overcomplicating Azul S.A. each representing two (2) (AZUL). Forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13/20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and Debt/Equity of 0.5, the strongest pillar in the rating.. With an RQD score of 49/100 (D) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $4.32.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $4.00 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.04 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $4.00

Whale 13F Flow pillar scores only 3/20 and ROIC and FCF yield are both reported at 0%, leaving no source-based evidence of cash generat

Whale 13F Flow pillar scores only 3/20 and ROIC and FCF yield are both reported at 0%, leaving no source-based evidence of cash generation or institutional accumulation.. Look at the math on AZUL: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for 0.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Air Freight/Delivery Services demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $3.52 before getting long.

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