Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BABA / earnings

ACN (88) UBER (67) PDD (71) MA (79) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Alibaba Group Holding Limited American (BABA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.5% Move

$98.04 -1.51% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $97.59

Alibaba Group Holding Limited American (BABA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $241.13B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BABA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BABA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Alibaba Group Holding Limited American (NYSE: BABA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $98.04 (-1.51% 1D, market cap $241.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BABA ranks #553 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BABA compare to ACN and UBER in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), BABA carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.1x, gross margin of 39.8%, and ROIC of 7.6%. By comparison, ACN (Accenture plc (Ireland) (Class A)) holds a A grade (88/100 RQD, P/E 21.5x, ROIC 23.6%, cap $165.32B) and UBER (Uber Technologies Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 14.4%, cap $134.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PDD leads on earnings multiple (8.1x) while MA leads on capital efficiency (33.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BABA?

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Per BABA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001577552), Alibaba Group Holding Limited American generated $148.40B in revenue (+8.1% YoY), $15.02B in net income, and $4.37B in free cash flow against $178.08B in total assets and $41.67B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $97.59 (-0.46%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.60% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 2.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BABA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BABA SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.33 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.60% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (34.6) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$110.85-2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$108.61-7.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$100.24-2.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D$98.04-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BABA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BABA currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.60% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BABA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BABA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.5% Swing Band

±$4.41 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

BABA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 50/100

Trailing EPS: $6.20 • YoY Revenue Growth: 8.1%

Model Bullish Setup (50/100)Model Risk Weight (50/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2026-03-31	$148.40B	$15.02B	$4.37B	39.8%
FY 2024	2025-03-31	$137.30B	$17.93B	$16.35B	40%
FY 2023	2024-03-31	$130.35B	$11.08B	$19.42B	39.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BABA)

✓Walkthrough of BABA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BABA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.44%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $101.0H $101.0L $98.04C $98.04VOL 7.83M

RES: $118.3SUP: $97.60SMA50: $108.9SMA200: $125.6

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BABA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BABA Butterfly Map → + Track BABA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BABA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BABA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BABA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BABA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #553 of 1011 ⚔️ ACN vs BABA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BABA vs. ACN, UBER, PDD, MA)

Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alibaba Group Holding Limited American (BABA) ranks #553 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #8 by equity capitalization ($241.13B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PDD leads on earnings valuation at 8.1x trailing P/E, while MA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.5% ROIC and — gross margin. ACN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 88/100 (A) compared with BABA at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BABA ACTIVE Alibaba Group Holding Limited American	D	50/100	16.1x	39.8%	7.6%	-1.51%	$241.13B	Benchmark Subject
ACN Accenture plc (Ireland) (Class A)	A	88/100	21.5x	31.9%	23.6%	+4.46%	$165.32B	/acn-vs-baba →
UBER Uber Technologies Inc.	C+	67/100	13.4x	—	14.4%	-0.74%	$134.28B	/uber-vs-baba →
PDD PDD Holdings Inc.	B-	71/100	8.1x	56.3%	18.6%	-0.84%	$112.85B	/pdd-vs-baba →
MA Mastercard Incorporated	B+	79/100	37.2x	—	33.5%	+0.36%	$556.88B	/ma-vs-baba →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001577552

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Alibaba Group Holding Limited American (BABA) reported GAAP revenue of $148.40B (+8.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $137.30B , and +13.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $15.02B, operating cash flow of $11.05B, and free cash flow of $4.37B (-73.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, BABA closed FY2025 with $178.08B in total assets against $41.67B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.33, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$148.40B	$15.02B	$11.05B	$4.37B	$178.08B	$41.67B
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$137.30B	$17.93B	$22.53B	$16.35B	$164.76B	$38.55B
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$130.35B	$11.08B	$25.29B	$19.42B	$156.42B	$36.60B

3. BABA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BABA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BABA compare to ACN and UBER in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BABA?

Where is BABA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BABA last traded at $98.04 (-1.51% on volume of 8,385,635 shares), positioning the stock -9.96% below its 50-day simple moving average ($108.89) and -21.91% below its 200-day simple moving average ($125.55). Across its 52-week range of $91.99 to $181.10, BABA sits at the 6.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($93.63 to $102.45).

BABA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is BABA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Alibaba Group Holding Limited American (BABA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is BABA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.5% event move for BABA, spanning a range between $93.63 and $102.45.

Direct Sub-Reports: BABA RQD Cockpit BABA 12M Forecast BABA Earnings & Move BABA Dividends & DRIP BABA Insiders & 13F BABA Whale Options BABA Profit Sankey BABA News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

BABA — Alibaba Group Holding Limited American: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:08:59Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, BABA scores 50 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D and the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." Across the five pillars: Fundamental Cash Engine scores 8/20 (ROIC 7.6%; FCF yield 1.81%), the weakest-performing signal alongside Macro Regime Fit. Whale 13F Flow scores 6/20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning that the RQD rating characterizes as insufficient. Macro Regime Fit scores 6/20 with a beta of 0.98 and sector sensitivity noted. Insider Conviction scores 14/20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, the strongest pillar. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 16/20 (Altman Z 4.33; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.39), the strongest pillar overall.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the pillar profile implies that balance-sheet strength and insider signal are offset by weak cash-generation efficiency and limited institutional and macro support. The upside case rests on the forensic and insider pillars; the valuation tradeoff is that a 1.81% FCF yield and 7.6% ROIC leave limited cushion if cash generation does not improve. This is an analytical reading of the rating, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
99.54	$241.13B	16.1	15	19.4	6.2	2.03%	0.98	$91.99 - $181.1	7.6%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$148401.0M	$7270.0M	$15018.0M	N/A	$4371.0M	N/A	$41671.0M
FY 2024	$137300.0M	$19417.0M	$17929.0M	N/A	$16353.5M	N/A	$38553.8M
FY 2023	$130350.0M	$15699.0M	$11081.0M	N/A	$19423.2M	N/A	$36602.3M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $130350.0M (FY 2023) to $148401.0M (FY 2025), while operating income fell from $19417.0M (FY 2024) to $7270.0M (FY 2025) and FCF declined from $19423.2M (FY 2023) to $4371.0M (FY 2025). Per the market data, gross margin is 39.8%, operating margin 4.9%, and net margin 10.1%, with ROIC at 7.6%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 4.33 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.39. Cash balances are not available in source data.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data.

Open Questions

What are the specific products, customers, and revenue drivers behind the reported FY 2025 revenue of $148401.0M?
Why did operating income decline from $19417.0M in FY 2024 to $7270.0M in FY 2025 while revenue grew?
What are the cash balances and EPS figures for each reported period, which are listed as N/A?
Which institutional holders and insiders drive the whale and insider pillar scores, and what are their recent positions?
What catalysts or risk events, if any, are expected to affect the stock over the next reporting cycle?

BABA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alibaba Group Holding Limited American (BABA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BABA Debate Forum (3) ↓

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🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 2d ago

China factory activity contracts in October as economic recovery falters

Investing.com -- China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in October, reversing the previous month’s expansion and raising concerns about the country’s economic momentum as Beijing seeks to meet its annual

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🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 3d ago

PDD Holdings Rose as Deutsche Bank Upgraded It to Buy. Here’s Where the Stock Could Go by 2030

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Amazon: Wall Street Hates The Bill, I Like The Price

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🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo • 4d ago

Alibaba (BABA) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market: Important Facts to Note

In the latest trading session, Alibaba (BABA) closed at $99.54, marking a -1.41% move from the previous day.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 4d ago

Wall Street Breakfast Podcast: PHP Flaws Set Off Cyber Alarm

AI uncovered years-old threat lurking in the webâs code. Meta beat earnings expectations, but its legal troubles just got more expensive. Alibaba shares slide as China turns up the pressure.

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🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 4d ago

Alibaba Cloud Revenue Growth Accelerates: Can AI Sustain Momentum?

BABA's Cloud external revenues surge 45%, its fastest pace in 22 quarters, as AI demand fuels growth, while rising capex and U.S. rivals pose challenges.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 4d ago

E-Commerce Today - WeShop Rewards Transform Shopping Into Share Ownership

WeShop Holdings Limited announced that eligible UK members participating in its ShareBack™ Rewards Plan can claim the company's Class A ordinary shares starting November 23. This initiative, which coincides with WeShop's

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BABA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $98.04?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BABA 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $107.50 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is BABA (D • RQD 50/100) a Buy at $99.54?

Welcome to the BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited American) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 50/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Business Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $83.61 (-16.0%)

Spot @ $99.54

Pump the brakes on BABA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on BABA, but look at what you are paying: 16.1x trailing P/E with 39.8% gross margins. Unless Alibaba Group Holding Limited American expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $118.45 (+19.0%)

Spot @ $99.54

BABA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on BABA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Business Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $99.54 (52-wk range $91.99 - $181.10), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.