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FINW (36) EBMT (59) SBFG (72) LARK (62) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$5.88 +1.38% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.88

BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $180.2M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BAFN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, BayFirst Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: BAFN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $5.88 (+1.38% 1D, market cap $180.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BAFN ranks #939 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BAFN compare to FINW and EBMT in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BAFN carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -30.1%. By comparison, FINW (FinWise Bancorp) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.3%, cap $183.1M) and EBMT (Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 7.7%, cap $168.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FINW leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while SBFG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAFN?
β–Ό

Per BAFN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001649739), BayFirst Financial Corp. generated $543.6M in revenue (+0.9% YoY), -$24.6M in net income, and $288.5M in free cash flow against $1.29B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.88 (+0.06%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) β€’ 53.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510038
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk D
Cash (10)Whales (4)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$10 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE BAFN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BAFN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY BAFN SCORES 38/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 53.1% FCF Margin ($288.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$4.96+29.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$6.44+2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$6.57-10.5% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$5.88-7.8% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (30) β†’ D- (38)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BAFN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While BAFN currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.12) and Max Pain ($6.17) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.04.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BAFNβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œBAFN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
2.2% Total Yield
0.4% Cash ($0.02/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 β€’ FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
14% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (7.2% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $20,042

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $441/yr
$10.7K
Yr 1
$11.5K
Yr 2
$12.3K
Yr 3
$13.2K
Yr 4
$14.2K
Yr 5
$15.2K
Yr 6
$16.3K
Yr 7
$17.4K
Yr 8
$18.7K
Yr 9
$20.0K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BAFN)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of BAFN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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BAFN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.66%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $6.17H $6.17L $5.80C $5.88VOL 32.9K
RES: $11.41SUP: $4.28SMA50: $7.12SMA200: $6.54
$9.87$8.35$6.83$5.31$3.79RES $11.41SUP $4.28$5.882026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BAFN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ BAFN Butterfly Map β†’ + Track BAFN β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BAFN today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BAFN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BAFN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BAFN)

Financials Rank #939 of 1097 βš”οΈ FINW vs BAFN Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BAFN vs. FINW, EBMT, SBFG, LARK)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) ranks #939 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #901 by equity capitalization ($180.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FINW leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while SBFG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and β€” gross margin. SBFG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with BAFN at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BAFN ACTIVE
BayFirst Financial Corp.
D- 38/100 β€” β€” -30.1% +1.38% $180.2M Benchmark Subject
FINW
FinWise Bancorp
D- 36/100 11.5x β€” 8.3% +0.46% $183.1M /finw-vs-bafn β†’
EBMT
Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.
C- 59/100 11.5x β€” 7.7% +2.17% $168.9M /ebmt-vs-bafn β†’
SBFG
SB Financial Group Inc.
B 72/100 14.0x β€” 9.9% +1.75% $193.2M /sbfg-vs-bafn β†’
LARK
Landmark Bancorp Inc.
C 62/100 β€” β€” 0.0% +0.87% $195.6M /lark-vs-bafn β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001649739 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) reported GAAP revenue of $543.6M (+0.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $538.8M , and -68.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$24.6M, operating cash flow of $288.8M, and free cash flow of $288.5M (-26.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, BAFN closed FY2025 with $1.29B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $543.6M -$24.6M $288.8M $288.5M $1.29B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $538.8M $10.2M $393.4M $391.7M $1.28B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.73B $5.7M $454.8M $454.8M β€” β€”

3. BAFN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BAFN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, BayFirst Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: BAFN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $5.88 (+1.38% 1D, market cap $180.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BAFN ranks #939 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BAFN compare to FINW and EBMT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BAFN carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -30.1%. By comparison, FINW (FinWise Bancorp) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.3%, cap $183.1M) and EBMT (Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 7.7%, cap $168.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FINW leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while SBFG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAFN?

Per BAFN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001649739), BayFirst Financial Corp. generated $543.6M in revenue (+0.9% YoY), -$24.6M in net income, and $288.5M in free cash flow against $1.29B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BAFN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BAFN last traded at $5.88 (+1.38% on volume of 25,806 shares), positioning the stock -17.42% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.12) and -10.09% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.54). Across its 52-week range of $4.26 to $9.56, BAFN sits at the 30.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($5.15 to $6.61).

Direct Sub-Reports: BAFN RQD Cockpit BAFN 12M Forecast BAFN Earnings & Move BAFN Dividends & DRIP BAFN Insiders & 13F BAFN Whale Options BAFN Profit Sankey BAFN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 38/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BAFN β€” BayFirst Financial Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.88 (+1.38% 1D, market capitalization $180.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -30.1%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of β€”.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

BayFirst Financial Corp. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry. Its market capitalization is listed at $0.2B in the profile, and $166.4M in market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) reported $543.6M in annual revenue (up from $538.8M in FY2024, +0.9% YoY) and -$24.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.73B revenue, $5.7M net income) through FY2025, BAFN scaled operating cash flow to $288.8M and free cash flow to $288.5M, backed by $1.29B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 38/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of β€” and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.26 – $9.56 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), BAFN carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of β€”.

  • Key Question #1: Can BAFN sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and -30.1% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $543.6M and free cash flow of $288.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BAFN's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BAFN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to BAFN Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BAFN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $5.88?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BAFN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BAFN:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Options Flow Specialist πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.96 (+20.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Macro Regime Fit is the strongest RQD pillar at 15/20 with beta of 1.0, indicating neutral market sensitivity.

Long BAFN at $5.80 targeting $6.96. Macro Regime Fit is the strongest RQD pillar at 15/20 with beta of 1.0, indicating neutral market sensitivity.. Institutional whale score is 4/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $4.26 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 38/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $5.80 and keeping dry powder in case we test $5.39.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.81 (-17.1%)
Spot @ $5.80

Net income swung from $10.2M in FY 2024 to -$24.6M in FY 2025 while ROIC sits at -30.1%, with Insider Conviction scoring only 5/20.

I respect the product at BayFirst Financial Corp., but the stock at $5.80 is a different story. Net income swung from $10.2M in FY 2024 to -$24.6M in FY 2025 while ROIC sits at -30.1%, with Insider Conviction scoring only 5/20.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 38/100 (D-) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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