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Why BGM Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$9.54 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.52

BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) (BGM) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $127.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BGM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) (NASDAQ: BGM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $9.54 (0.00% 1D, market cap $127.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, BGM ranks #537 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BGM compare to CATX and FHTX in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), BGM carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 16.6%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, CATX (Perspective Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $131.3M) and FHTX (Foghorn Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $123.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BGM leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CATX leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BGM?
▼

Per BGM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001779578), BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) generated $37.9M in revenue (+51.1% YoY), -$19.9M in net income, and -$3.9M in free cash flow against $433.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.52 (-0.19%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510037
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk E
Cash (12)Whales (9)SEC (8)Macro (5)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target
$318 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE BGM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BGM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BGM SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 16.6% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$10.20-12.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$8.97-6.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$8.40+13.6% Next Q
Current
37
Grade D-$9.54-8.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BGM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BGM currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.54) and Max Pain ($10.02) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $317.52.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BGM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BGM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why BGM Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) (BGM) slipped 0.00% to $9.54, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($6.45 – $302.4). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (16.6% gross margin) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($6.45 – $302.4) with RSI-14 at 56.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $9.54 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 16.6% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live BGM Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREStock Traders Daily • 1d ago
Responsive Playbooks and the BGM Inflection

Stock Traders Daily report covering BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) (BGM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BGM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BGM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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BGM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.63%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $9.54H $9.54L $9.54C $9.54VOL 299
RES: $10.53SUP: $6.11SMA50: $8.54SMA200: $18.72
$173.4$128.2$82.91$37.66$-7.59RES $10.53SUP $6.11$9.542026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BGM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BGM Butterfly Map → + Track BGM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +51.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BGM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BGM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BGM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BGM)

Health Care Rank #537 of 1015 ⚔️ CATX vs BGM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (BGM vs. CATX, FHTX, OGI, HURA)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) (BGM) ranks #537 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #626 by equity capitalization ($127.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BGM leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CATX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. OGI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with BGM at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BGM ACTIVE
BGM Group Ltd. (Class A)
D- 37/100 — 16.6% — 0.00% $127.4M Benchmark Subject
CATX
Perspective Therapeutics Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -9.56% $131.3M /catx-vs-bgm →
FHTX
Foghorn Therapeutics Inc.
E 18/100 — — -35.0% +2.40% $123.5M /fhtx-vs-bgm →
OGI
Organigram Global Inc.
D 45/100 — — — +3.43% $131.6M /ogi-vs-bgm →
HURA
TuHURA Biosciences Inc.
E 32/100 — — -35.0% -10.88% $123.0M /hura-vs-bgm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001779578 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) (BGM) reported GAAP revenue of $37.9M (+51.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $25.1M , and -18.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$19.9M, operating cash flow of -$2.4M, and free cash flow of -$3.9M (-1395.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, BGM closed FY2025 with $433.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $37.9M -$19.9M -$2.4M -$3.9M $433.8M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $25.1M -$1.4M $544.2K $304.1K — —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $46.5M -$7.8M $312.2K $312.2K — —

3. BGM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BGM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) (NASDAQ: BGM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $9.54 (0.00% 1D, market cap $127.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, BGM ranks #537 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BGM compare to CATX and FHTX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), BGM carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 16.6%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, CATX (Perspective Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $131.3M) and FHTX (Foghorn Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $123.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BGM leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CATX leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BGM?

Per BGM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001779578), BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) generated $37.9M in revenue (+51.1% YoY), -$19.9M in net income, and -$3.9M in free cash flow against $433.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BGM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BGM last traded at $9.54 (0.00% on volume of 748 shares), positioning the stock +11.71% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.54) and -49.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.72). Across its 52-week range of $6.45 to $302.40, BGM sits at the 1.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.35 to $10.73).

Direct Sub-Reports: BGM RQD Cockpit BGM 12M Forecast BGM Earnings & Move BGM Dividends & DRIP BGM Insiders & 13F BGM Whale Options BGM Profit Sankey BGM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 37/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BGM — BGM Group Ltd. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) (BGM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 37/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $9.54 (0.00% 1D, market capitalization $127.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of 16.6%, operating margin of -33.2%, and free cash flow yield of -3.09%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The company reported revenue of $37.9M for FY 2025, indicating an operating business with meaningful top-line activity. Operating and net margins are negative, per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) (BGM) reported $37.9M in annual revenue (up from $25.1M in FY2024, +51.1% YoY) and -$19.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($46.5M revenue, -$7.8M net income) through FY2025, BGM scaled operating cash flow to -$2.4M and free cash flow to -$3.9M, backed by $433.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 37/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -3.09% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.45 – $302.40 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -33.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The sector is Health Care and the industry is Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations, but no linkage to specific suppliers, customers, or peers is provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can BGM sustain or expand its -33.2% operating margin and — ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $37.9M and free cash flow of -$3.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BGM's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BGM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for BGM Group Ltd. (Class A) (BGM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BGM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BGM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.54?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BGM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BGM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.50 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $25.1M in FY 2024 to $37.9M in FY 2025 while the stock sits near the bottom of its 52-week range at $9.54.

Don't sleep on BGM's setup in Health Care. Revenue grew from $25.1M in FY 2024 to $37.9M in FY 2025 while the stock sits near the bottom of its 52-week range at $9.54.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (37/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (16.6%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.11 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $9.54

Net margin of -52.6%, ROIC of 0%, and Piotroski F-Score of 2 of 9 show weak profitability and financial quality.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on BGM: Net margin of -52.6%, ROIC of 0%, and Piotroski F-Score of 2 of 9 show weak profitability and financial quality.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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