Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.6% Move

$12.68 -1.48% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.62

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.36B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BILI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ: BILI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $12.68 (-1.48% 1D, market cap $5.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, BILI ranks #322 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BILI compare to WAY and PSN in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), BILI carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.4x, gross margin of 36.6%, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, WAY (Waystar Holding Corp.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 48.3x, ROIC 3.7%, cap $5.41B) and PSN (Parsons Corporation) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 21.6x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $5.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PEGA leads on earnings multiple (14.2x) while PEGA leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BILI?
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Per BILI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001723690), Bilibili Inc. generated $4.34B in revenue (+18.1% YoY), $170.7M in net income, and $948.7M in free cash flow against $5.89B in total assets and $682.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.62 (-0.46%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 21.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (14)Whales (4)SEC (11)Macro (9)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target
$38 Bull$12 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE BILI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BILI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BILI SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 21.9% FCF Margin ($948.7M FCF) & 36.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$14.98-7.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$13.92-5.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$13.11-3.3% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$12.68-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BILI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BILI currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.78) and Max Pain ($13.31) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $38.22.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BILI• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BILI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.6% Swing Band

±$0.58 Expected Swing
$12.10 (-4.6%)Spot $12.68$13.26 (+4.6%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

BILI Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 53/100

Trailing EPS: $0.41 • YoY Revenue Growth: 18.1%

Model Bullish Setup (53/100)Model Risk Weight (47/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$4.34B$170.7M$948.7M36.6%
FY 20242024-12-31$3.68B$0$760.3M32.7%
FY 20232023-12-31$3.17B$0-$105.2M36.6%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BILI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BILI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BILI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.54%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $12.90H $12.90L $12.68C $12.68VOL 3.00M
RES: $14.41SUP: $12.57SMA50: $14.78SMA200: $20.53
$27.36$23.37$19.38$15.39$11.40RES $14.41SUP $12.57$12.682026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BILI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
24.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BILI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BILI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BILI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BILI)

Technology Rank #322 of 714 ⚔️ WAY vs BILI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (BILI vs. WAY, PSN, PEGA, APLD)

Industry: EDP Services (163 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bilibili Inc. (BILI) ranks #322 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #211 by equity capitalization ($5.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PEGA leads on earnings valuation at 14.2x trailing P/E, while PEGA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.4% ROIC and 75.9% gross margin. PEGA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with BILI at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BILI ACTIVE
Bilibili Inc.
D+ 53/100 31.4x 36.6% 10.9% -1.48% $5.36B Benchmark Subject
WAY
Waystar Holding Corp.
C 64/100 48.3x — 3.7% -0.74% $5.41B /way-vs-bili →
PSN
Parsons Corporation
D+ 58/100 21.6x 22.5% 9.7% +2.76% $5.21B /psn-vs-bili →
PEGA
Pegasystems Inc.
B 73/100 14.2x 75.9% 22.4% -0.53% $5.58B /pega-vs-bili →
APLD
Applied Digital Corporation
D- 37/100 — 35.1% -21.7% -8.22% $5.87B /apld-vs-bili →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001723690

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bilibili Inc. (BILI) reported GAAP revenue of $4.34B (+18.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.68B , and +36.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $170.7M, operating cash flow of $1.02B, and free cash flow of $948.7M (+24.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BILI closed FY2025 with $5.89B in total assets against $682.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.13, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.34B $170.7M $1.02B $948.7M $5.89B $682.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.68B $0 $824.0M $760.3M $4.48B $447.2M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.17B $0 $37.6M -$105.2M $3.81B $891.0M

3. BILI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BILI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ: BILI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $12.68 (-1.48% 1D, market cap $5.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, BILI ranks #322 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BILI compare to WAY and PSN in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), BILI carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.4x, gross margin of 36.6%, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, WAY (Waystar Holding Corp.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 48.3x, ROIC 3.7%, cap $5.41B) and PSN (Parsons Corporation) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 21.6x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $5.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PEGA leads on earnings multiple (14.2x) while PEGA leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BILI?

Per BILI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001723690), Bilibili Inc. generated $4.34B in revenue (+18.1% YoY), $170.7M in net income, and $948.7M in free cash flow against $5.89B in total assets and $682.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BILI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BILI last traded at $12.68 (-1.48% on volume of 2,581,457 shares), positioning the stock -14.21% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.78) and -38.24% below its 200-day simple moving average ($20.53). Across its 52-week range of $12.64 to $36.40, BILI sits at the 0.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 29.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($12.10 to $13.26).

BILI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is BILI's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Bilibili Inc. (BILI)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is BILI stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.6% event move for BILI, spanning a range between $12.1 and $13.26.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

BILI — Bilibili Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:23Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, BILI scores 53 out of 100, a D+ grade labeled "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 (ROIC 10.9%; FCF yield 17.69%); Whale 13F Flow at 4/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 15/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 9/20 (Beta 1.3; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20 (Altman Z 2.13; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.31). For a prospective investor, the most supportive input is the cash-generation profile, with a stated FCF yield of 17.69% and ROIC of 10.9%. The weakest input is institutional flow at 4/20, which suggests limited evidence of whale accumulation in the source data. The Macro Regime Fit score of 9/20 reflects the stated Beta of 1.3, indicating above-market sensitivity to market moves. The forensic balance sheet is mid-range; the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 is a relative strength, while the Altman Z-Score of 2.13 is not further characterized in the source data. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: P/E (TTM) of 31.4 and EV/EBITDA of 19.3 are elevated relative to reported TTM EPS of 0.41 and an operating margin of 3.7%, so upside depends on margin expansion that the source data does not yet show. The RQD rating itself is a composite score and is not a price forecast.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
12.87$5.36B31.426.419.30.410%1.3$12.64 - $36.410.9%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$4339.7M$160.8M$170.7MN/A$948.7M$1742.2M$682.9M
FY 2024$3675.9M$-184.1M$0.0MN/A$760.3M$1404.2M$447.2M
FY 2023$3173.0M$-713.3M$0.0MN/A$-105.2MN/A$891.0M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $3173.0M in FY 2023 to $4339.7M in FY 2025, and operating income moved from $-713.3M to $160.8M over the same span. Per the market data, the operating margin is 3.7%, the net margin 3.9%, and the gross margin 36.6%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 10.9%, the Altman Z-Score is 2.13, and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9. The reported debt was $682.9M against $1742.2M in cash for FY 2025, with a Debt/Equity of 0.31 per the RQD forensic pillar.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Risk Watch (RED): Seeking Alpha, "Bilibili: The Market Is Missing The Profit Transformation." The headline frames profit transformation as underpriced, but the item is flagged RISK WATCH in the source data.
  • Catalyst (GREEN): Investing.com, "Why is Bilibili stock rallying today?" Flagged CATALYST; the source summary gives no explanation of the rally.
  • Market Wire (YELLOW): Simply Wall St analyst-forecast coverage; Google-indexed CoinGecko tokenized-price item; and a Globe and Mail item reporting a J.P. Morgan buy rating.
  • Market Wire (YELLOW): Stock Titan, reporting that Tencent's planned $200 million purchase of Bilibili debt is tied to Bilibili buying back shares. This is the most specific capital-structure catalyst in the feed.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the business model and revenue mix behind the $4339.7M FY 2025 revenue figure, given that the source data contains no business description?
  • What drove the "rally" referenced in the Investing.com item, and does it persist given the 52-week range of $12.64 - $36.4?
  • What are the terms of the Tencent debt purchase and linked buyback, and how do they affect the $682.9M debt balance?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A for all three periods while FY 2025 net income is $170.7M?
  • What explains the Forensic pillar's Altman Z-Score of 2.13 relative to the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and how is the FY 2023 cash figure (N/A) affecting the trend?

BILI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bilibili Inc. (BILI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BILI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BILI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.68?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BILI 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BILI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $13.90 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is BILI (D+ • RQD 53/100) a Buy at $12.87?

Welcome to the BILI (Bilibili Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 53/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in EDP Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (31.4x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.81 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $12.87

Pump the brakes on BILI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on BILI, but look at what you are paying: 31.4x trailing P/E with 36.6% gross margins. Unless Bilibili Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $15.96 (+24.0%)
Spot @ $12.87

BILI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on BILI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in EDP Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $12.87 (52-wk range $12.64 - $36.40), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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