ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BIRD / forecast
TLF (35) PASW (33) BRIA (49) JRSH (53) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Smartbird Inc. (Class A) (BIRD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$1.95 -8.02% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.92

Smartbird Inc. (Class A) (BIRD) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 34/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $23.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BIRD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BIRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Smartbird Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: BIRD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $1.95 (-8.02% 1D, market cap $23.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BIRD ranks #810 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BIRD compare to TLF and PASW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Apparel), BIRD carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 41.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TLF (Tandy Leather Factory Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $18.0M) and PASW (Ping An Biomedical Co. Ltd. (Class A)) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $16.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRSH leads on earnings multiple (21.3x) while JRSH leads on capital efficiency (9.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BIRD?
▼

Per BIRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653909), Smartbird Inc. (Class A) generated $152.5M in revenue (-19.7% YoY), -$77.3M in net income, and -$58.2M in free cash flow against $109.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.92 (-1.63%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (34/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510034
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (7)Whales (3)SEC (11)Macro (8)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.8% Base Target
$26 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE BIRD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BIRD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (34/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BIRD SCORES 34/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$2.52-8.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
39
Grade E$2.30-8.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$2.11-7.6% Next Q
Current
34
Grade E$1.95-8.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → E (34)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BIRD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BIRD currently carries a cautious 34/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.48) and Max Pain ($2.05) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.53.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BIRD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BIRD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 34%NO 66%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BIRD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $1.95: 5128.2 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1.36
$6,974
$-3,026 (-30.3%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $1.74
$8,923
$-1,077 (-10.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $25.53
$130,923
+$120,923 (+1209.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BIRD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BIRD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
BIRD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -66.72%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $2.12H $2.12L $1.95C $1.95VOL 342.2K
RES: $2.71SUP: $1.92SMA50: $2.48SMA200: $3.56
$8.16$6.47$4.78$3.09$1.41RES $2.71SUP $1.92$1.952026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BIRD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BIRD Butterfly Map → + Track BIRD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -19.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BIRD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BIRD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BIRD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BIRD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #810 of 1009 ⚔️ TLF vs BIRD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BIRD vs. TLF, PASW, BRIA, JRSH)

Industry: Apparel (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Smartbird Inc. (Class A) (BIRD) ranks #810 by composite RQD confidence (34/100, grade E) and #880 by equity capitalization ($23.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRSH leads on earnings valuation at 21.3x trailing P/E, while JRSH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.6% ROIC and 16.1% gross margin. JRSH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with BIRD at 34/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BIRD ACTIVE
Smartbird Inc. (Class A)
E 34/100 — 41.0% -35.0% -8.02% $23.0M Benchmark Subject
TLF
Tandy Leather Factory Inc.
D- 35/100 — 57.0% -2.1% -2.65% $18.0M /tlf-vs-bird →
PASW
Ping An Biomedical Co. Ltd. (Class A)
E 33/100 — 2.8% — +2.40% $16.0M /pasw-vs-bird →
BRIA
BrilliA Inc (Class A)
D 49/100 — — — -1.43% $42.3M /bria-vs-bird →
JRSH
Jerash Holdings (US) Inc.
D+ 53/100 21.3x 16.1% 9.6% -2.54% $75.4M /jrsh-vs-bird →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001653909 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Smartbird Inc. (Class A) (BIRD) reported GAAP revenue of $152.5M (-19.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $189.8M , and -64.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$77.3M, operating cash flow of -$55.1M, and free cash flow of -$58.2M (+14.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, BIRD closed FY2025 with $109.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $152.5M -$77.3M -$55.1M -$58.2M $109.4M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $189.8M -$93.3M -$63.9M -$68.0M $188.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $428.4M -$152.5M -$30.2M -$30.2M — —

3. BIRD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BIRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Smartbird Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: BIRD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $1.95 (-8.02% 1D, market cap $23.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BIRD ranks #810 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BIRD compare to TLF and PASW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Apparel), BIRD carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 41.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TLF (Tandy Leather Factory Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $18.0M) and PASW (Ping An Biomedical Co. Ltd. (Class A)) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $16.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRSH leads on earnings multiple (21.3x) while JRSH leads on capital efficiency (9.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BIRD?

Per BIRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653909), Smartbird Inc. (Class A) generated $152.5M in revenue (-19.7% YoY), -$77.3M in net income, and -$58.2M in free cash flow against $109.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BIRD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BIRD last traded at $1.95 (-8.02% on volume of 342,223 shares), positioning the stock -21.37% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.48) and -45.22% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.56). Across its 52-week range of $1.93 to $24.31, BIRD sits at the 0.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.71 to $2.19).

Direct Sub-Reports: BIRD RQD Cockpit BIRD 12M Forecast BIRD Earnings & Move BIRD Dividends & DRIP BIRD Insiders & 13F BIRD Whale Options BIRD Profit Sankey BIRD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 34/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BIRD — Smartbird Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Smartbird Inc. (Class A) (BIRD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 34/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $1.95 (-8.02% 1D, market capitalization $23.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 41.0%, operating margin of -52.4%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Smartbird Inc. (Class A) (BIRD) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating in the Apparel industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 41%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Smartbird Inc. (Class A) (BIRD) reported $152.5M in annual revenue (up from $189.8M in FY2024, -19.7% YoY) and -$77.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($428.4M revenue, -$152.5M net income) through FY2025, BIRD scaled operating cash flow to -$55.1M and free cash flow to -$58.2M, backed by $109.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 34/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.93 – $24.31 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -52.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are therefore — Sector correlation data beyond the stated beta of 1.0 is — Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided inputs. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped supply-chain links means the rating does not benefit from ripple-effect analysis for this issuer.

  • Key Question #1: Can BIRD sustain or expand its -52.4% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Apparel peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $152.5M and free cash flow of -$58.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BIRD's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BIRD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Smartbird Inc. (Class A) (BIRD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BIRD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BIRD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.95?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BIRD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BIRD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.36 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet is the strongest RQD pillar at 11 of 20, with an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and Debt/Equity of 0.5.

Balance sheet is the strongest RQD pillar at 11 of 20, with an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and Debt/Equity of 0.5.. When you look under the hood at BIRD, Fundamental Cash Engine is 7/20 with 41.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $24.31. My 12M target is $2.36.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — BIRD's 11/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.60 (-17.9%)
Spot @ $1.95

Negative ROIC of -35%, zero FCF yield, and operating margin of -52.4% show the business is consuming rather than generating capital.

Fading this rally in BIRD at $1.95. Negative ROIC of -35%, zero FCF yield, and operating margin of -52.4% show the business is consuming rather than generating capital.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $1.95 (52-wk range $1.93–$24.31), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%