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CROX (68) SHOO (62) DECK (75) WWW (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$35.54 +6.31% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.88

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $5.52B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BIRK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE: BIRK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $35.54 (+6.31% 1D, market cap $5.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BIRK ranks #459 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BIRK compare to CROX and SHOO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Shoe Manufacturing), BIRK carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, CROX (Crocs Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.9%, cap $6.88B) and SHOO (Steven Madden Ltd.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 73.6x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $3.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DECK leads on earnings multiple (11.0x) while DECK leads on capital efficiency (73.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BIRK?
β–Ό

For Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs and sector rank #459 in Consumer Discretionary, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.88 (+0.95%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) β€’ 3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 51.0% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510054
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ Β· Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (7)SEC (16)Macro (7)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$53 Bull$35 Base$27 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE BIRK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BIRK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±8.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY BIRK SCORES 54/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 3% FCF Margin ($122.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51.4) create a -13 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$33.92-4.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$32.32-2.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$31.59+12.5% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$35.54-0.7% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (46) β†’ D+ (54)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BIRK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While BIRK currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($32.97) and Max Pain ($37.32) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $53.27.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BIRKβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œBIRK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±8.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (BIRK)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for BIRK.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BIRK)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of BIRK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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BIRK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.74%β–² RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $33.39H $35.54L $33.39C $35.54VOL 1.45M
RES: $34.43SUP: $29.41SMA50: $32.97SMA200: $38.09
$52.19$46.15$40.12$34.09$28.06RES $34.43SUP $29.41$35.542026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BIRK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ BIRK Butterfly Map β†’ + Track BIRK β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BIRK today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BIRK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BIRK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BIRK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #459 of 1009 βš”οΈ CROX vs BIRK Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BIRK vs. CROX, SHOO, DECK, WWW)

Industry: Shoe Manufacturing (9 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) ranks #459 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #248 by equity capitalization ($5.52B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DECK leads on earnings valuation at 11.0x trailing P/E, while DECK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 73.9% ROIC and 57.7% gross margin. DECK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with BIRK at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BIRK ACTIVE
Birkenstock Holding plc
D+ 54/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% +6.31% $5.52B Benchmark Subject
CROX
Crocs Inc.
C+ 68/100 β€” 58.3% 4.9% +1.73% $6.88B /crox-vs-birk β†’
SHOO
Steven Madden Ltd.
C 62/100 73.6x 41.6% 6.5% +0.07% $3.18B /shoo-vs-birk β†’
DECK
Deckers Outdoor Corporation
B 75/100 11.0x 57.7% 73.9% +3.67% $10.94B /deck-vs-birk β†’
WWW
Wolverine World Wide Inc.
B- 71/100 17.6x 47.3% 12.4% +2.89% $1.71B /www-vs-birk β†’

2. BIRK Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) operates in Shoe Manufacturing (Consumer Discretionary) with an equity capitalization of $5.52B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 30.5x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.

3. BIRK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BIRK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE: BIRK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $35.54 (+6.31% 1D, market cap $5.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BIRK ranks #459 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BIRK compare to CROX and SHOO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Shoe Manufacturing), BIRK carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, CROX (Crocs Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.9%, cap $6.88B) and SHOO (Steven Madden Ltd.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 73.6x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $3.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DECK leads on earnings multiple (11.0x) while DECK leads on capital efficiency (73.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BIRK?

For Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs and sector rank #459 in Consumer Discretionary, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BIRK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BIRK last traded at $35.54 (+6.31% on volume of 2,590,318 shares), positioning the stock +7.79% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.97) and -6.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($38.09). Across its 52-week range of $29.93 to $50.73, BIRK sits at the 27.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±8.1% ($32.66 to $38.42).

Direct Sub-Reports: BIRK RQD Cockpit BIRK 12M Forecast BIRK Earnings & Move BIRK Dividends & DRIP BIRK Insiders & 13F BIRK Whale Options BIRK Profit Sankey BIRK News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 54/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BIRK β€” Birkenstock Holding plc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $35.54 (+6.31% 1D, market capitalization $5.52B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.9%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 13.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 0.96x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.74, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Shoe Manufacturing industry..5B.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 54/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 2.21% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $29.93 – $50.73 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 32.8x trailing P/E and 21.0x EV/EBITDA against 13.9% operating margins and a 0.96x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

β€” The Butterfly supply-chain graph reports supply chain as NONE with no links and no proprietary signals, so upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be established from the provided material. The only sector context available is the classification as Consumer Discretionary / Shoe Manufacturing and the beta of 0.96.

  • Key Question #1: Can BIRK sustain or expand its 13.9% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC against Shoe Manufacturing peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (2.21% FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score 3.74) toward the $50.73 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BIRK's 30.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.96x)?

BIRK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to BIRK Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BIRK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $35.54?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BIRK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BIRK:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ FCF Compounder Hunter πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $42.12 (+26.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Balance sheet strength (Forensic pillar 16/20, Altman Z 3.74, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.39) and a 13.9% operating margin give the

Long BIRK at $33.43 targeting $42.12. Balance sheet strength (Forensic pillar 16/20, Altman Z 3.74, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.39) and a 13.9% operating margin give the stock a durable base even at a 32.8 trailing P/E.. Institutional whale score is 7/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $29.93 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader πŸ‚ BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 7/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $33.43 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $26.74 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $33.43

A 2.21% FCF yield, 7/20 scores on whale flow and macro fit, and a Williams Trading sell downgrade on revenue and product-demand concern

I respect the product at Birkenstock Holding plc, but the stock at $33.43 is a different story. A 2.21% FCF yield, 7/20 scores on whale flow and macro fit, and a Williams Trading sell downgrade on revenue and product-demand concerns leave the valuation poorly supported by cash generation.. FCF yield is 2.21% and RQD sits at 54/100 (D+) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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