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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BLBD / insiders
HYLN (29) MLR (57) SCAG (47) GP (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$57.77 +3.34% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.01

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.75B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BLBD Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BLBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $57.77 (+3.34% 1D, market cap $1.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BLBD ranks #186 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BLBD compare to HYLN and MLR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks), BLBD carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.8x, gross margin of 20.5%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, HYLN (Hyliion Holdings Corp. (Class A)) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.6%, cap $580.4M) and MLR (Miller Industries Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 25.7x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $577.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BLBD leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while BLBD leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BLBD?
β–Ό

Per BLBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27, CIK 0001589526), Blue Bird Corporation generated $1.48B in revenue (+9.9% YoY), $127.7M in net income, and $176.2M in free cash flow against $642.3M in total assets and $84.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (20.5% gross margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.01 (+0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) β€’ 11.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 56.9% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C+
025507510068
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B Β· Rk C
Cash (19)Whales (5)SEC (15)Macro (10)CEO (19)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$88 Bull$60 Base$47 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE BLBD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BLBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±6.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY BLBD SCORES 68/100 (C+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 11.9% FCF Margin ($176.2M FCF) & 20.5% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$56.41+1.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$57.37-1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$56.82+1.7% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$57.77+1.8% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (60) β†’ C+ (68)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BLBD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, BLBD faces multiple-compression risk if 13.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 18.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($58.44) or 200D SMA ($63.25) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($60.37) toward Bear Floor ($47.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BLBDβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œBLBD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

BLBD Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (BLBD)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on BLBD. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BLBD Tape Review)

  • βœ“Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • βœ“Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • βœ“Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BLBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.14%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $56.35H $57.77L $55.90C $57.77VOL 486.5K
RES: $86.17SUP: $52.61SMA50: $58.44SMA200: $63.25
$85.42$77.00$68.58$60.17$51.75RES $86.17SUP $52.61$57.772026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BLBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ BLBD Butterfly Map β†’ + Track BLBD β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
5.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BLBD today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BLBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BLBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BLBD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #186 of 1009 βš”οΈ HYLN vs BLBD Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BLBD vs. HYLN, MLR, SCAG, GP)

Industry: Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) ranks #186 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #430 by equity capitalization ($1.75B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BLBD leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while BLBD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 20.5% gross margin. BLBD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BLBD ACTIVE
Blue Bird Corporation
C+ 68/100 13.8x 20.5% 85.0% +3.34% $1.75B Benchmark Subject
HYLN
Hyliion Holdings Corp. (Class A)
E 29/100 β€” 4.9% -30.6% -4.92% $580.4M /hyln-vs-blbd β†’
MLR
Miller Industries Inc.
D+ 57/100 25.7x 15.2% 5.5% +1.89% $577.0M /mlr-vs-blbd β†’
SCAG
Scage Future
D 47/100 β€” -6.4% β€” +1.93% $10.0M /scag-vs-blbd β†’
GP
GreenPower Motor Company Inc.
D 47/100 β€” β€” β€” -20.99% $2.3M /gp-vs-blbd β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-09-27 β€’ CIK 0001589526 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27), Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.48B (+9.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.35B , and +30.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $127.7M, operating cash flow of $176.2M, and free cash flow of $176.2M (+58.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, BLBD closed FY2025 with $642.3M in total assets against $84.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-27 $1.48B $127.7M $176.2M $176.2M $642.3M $84.2M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-28 $1.35B $105.5M $111.1M $111.1M $535.2M $88.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $1.13B $23.8M $119.9M $119.9M β€” β€”

3. BLBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BLBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $57.77 (+3.34% 1D, market cap $1.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BLBD ranks #186 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BLBD compare to HYLN and MLR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks), BLBD carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.8x, gross margin of 20.5%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, HYLN (Hyliion Holdings Corp. (Class A)) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.6%, cap $580.4M) and MLR (Miller Industries Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 25.7x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $577.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BLBD leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while BLBD leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BLBD?

Per BLBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27, CIK 0001589526), Blue Bird Corporation generated $1.48B in revenue (+9.9% YoY), $127.7M in net income, and $176.2M in free cash flow against $642.3M in total assets and $84.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (20.5% gross margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BLBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BLBD last traded at $57.77 (+3.34% on volume of 420,139 shares), positioning the stock -1.15% below its 50-day simple moving average ($58.44) and -8.66% below its 200-day simple moving average ($63.25). Across its 52-week range of $46.14 to $83.39, BLBD sits at the 31.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±6.3% ($54.13 to $61.41).

Direct Sub-Reports: BLBD RQD Cockpit BLBD 12M Forecast BLBD Earnings & Move BLBD Dividends & DRIP BLBD Insiders & 13F BLBD Whale Options BLBD Profit Sankey BLBD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 68/100 (C+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BLBD β€” Blue Bird Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-27

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 68/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $57.77 (+3.34% 1D, market capitalization $1.75B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 85.0%, gross margin of 20.5%, operating margin of 11.3%, and free cash flow yield of 9.98%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (19/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.31x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is a NASDAQ-listed company classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks industry. The company reported annual revenue of $1.48B for FY 2025.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-27), Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) reported $1.48B in annual revenue (up from $1.35B in FY2024, +9.9% YoY) and $127.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.13B revenue, $23.8M net income) through FY2025, BLBD scaled operating cash flow to $176.2M and free cash flow to $176.2M, backed by $642.3M in total assets against $84.2M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C+ β€’ RQD 68/100): Strong cash generator (20.5% gross margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $46.14 – $83.39 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 13.8x trailing P/E and 9.6x EV/EBITDA against 11.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The graph's sector and industry classification (Consumer Discretionary; Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks) is the only sector context provided. Investors should watch whether the institutional reduction noted in the news wire and the RED-flagged risk headlines develop further, since the source data cannot confirm their underlying drivers or any second-order effects.

  • Key Question #1: Can BLBD sustain or expand its 11.3% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.48B and free cash flow of $176.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $84.2M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BLBD's 12.8x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BLBD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to BLBD Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BLBD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $57.77?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BLBD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BLBD:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Systematic Momentum Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $65.96 (+18.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Strong cash engine and insider conviction, with reported ROIC of 85%, FCF yield of 9.98%, and an insider pillar score of 19/20.

Here is why I am bullish on BLBD here at $55.90: Strong cash engine and insider conviction, with reported ROIC of 85%, FCF yield of 9.98%, and an insider pillar score of 19/20.. Compare BLBD's 11.3% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against the rest of Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $53.10 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” BLBD's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $43.60 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $55.90

Weak institutional flow (5/20 whale score) and RED 'RISK WATCH' headlines, with no analyst coverage or holder data to confirm the thesi

I respect the product at Blue Bird Corporation, but the stock at $55.90 is a different story. Weak institutional flow (5/20 whale score) and RED 'RISK WATCH' headlines, with no analyst coverage or holder data to confirm the thesis.. FCF yield is 9.98% and RQD sits at 68/100 (C+) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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