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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BLMN / news
BH (61) FWRG (38) CNNE (34) HDL (46) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Why BLMN Stock surged +3.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$10.90 +3.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.94

Bloomin' Brands Inc. (BLMN) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $905.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BLMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Bloomin' Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: BLMN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $10.90 (+3.12% 1D, market cap $905.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BLMN ranks #330 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BLMN compare to BH and FWRG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), BLMN carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 111.1x, gross margin of 70.2%, and ROIC of 10.7%. By comparison, BH (Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B)) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $916.0M) and FWRG (First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 39.7x, ROIC 3.6%, cap $786.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FWRG leads on earnings multiple (39.7x) while BLMN leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BLMN?
▼

Per BLMN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001546417), Bloomin' Brands Inc. generated $3.96B in revenue (+0.1% YoY), $8.2M in net income, and $96.8M in free cash flow against $3.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 111x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.94 (+0.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510060
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (16)SEC (10)Macro (11)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$13 Bull$11 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE BLMN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BLMN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BLMN SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.4% FCF Margin ($96.8M FCF) & 70.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$9.21+12.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$10.34-12.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
57
Grade C$9.08+20% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$10.90+0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BLMN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, BLMN faces multiple-compression risk if 111.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 111x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.23) or 200D SMA ($7.91) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.00) toward Bear Floor ($8.58).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BLMN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BLMN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why BLMN Stock surged +3.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Bloomin' Brands Inc. (BLMN) surged +3.12% to $10.90, trading at 77% of its 52-week range ($5.19 – $12.63). Solid 70.2% gross margin (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 111x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 77% of its 52-week range ($5.19 – $12.63) with RSI-14 at 62.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $10.90 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 70.2% gross margin and $96.8M annual free cash flow.
Live BLMN Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BLMN Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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BLMN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +93.61%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $10.69H $10.90L $10.57C $10.90VOL 2.21M
RES: $10.93SUP: $7.85SMA50: $9.23SMA200: $7.91
$13.13$11.07$9.01$6.95$4.89RES $10.93SUP $7.85$10.902026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BLMN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BLMN Butterfly Map → + Track BLMN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BLMN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BLMN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BLMN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BLMN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #330 of 1009 ⚔️ BH vs BLMN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BLMN vs. BH, FWRG, CNNE, HDL)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bloomin' Brands Inc. (BLMN) ranks #330 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #519 by equity capitalization ($905.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FWRG leads on earnings valuation at 39.7x trailing P/E, while BLMN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.7% ROIC and 70.2% gross margin. BH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with BLMN at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BLMN ACTIVE
Bloomin' Brands Inc.
C- 60/100 111.1x 70.2% 10.7% +3.12% $905.0M Benchmark Subject
BH
Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B)
C- 61/100 — 59.2% -7.2% -1.39% $916.0M /bh-vs-blmn →
FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.
D- 38/100 39.7x — 3.6% +1.65% $786.2M /fwrg-vs-blmn →
CNNE
Cannae Holdings Inc.
E 34/100 — 15.5% -10.6% +2.39% $743.4M /cnne-vs-blmn →
HDL
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
D 46/100 — — — 0.00% $643.8M /hdl-vs-blmn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001546417 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Bloomin' Brands Inc. (BLMN) reported GAAP revenue of $3.96B (+0.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.95B , and -5.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $8.2M, operating cash flow of $276.7M, and free cash flow of $96.8M (+1208.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, BLMN closed FY2025 with $3.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.84, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-28 $3.96B $8.2M $276.7M $96.8M $3.17B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-29 $3.95B -$128.0M $228.1M $7.4M $3.38B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.17B $247.4M $532.4M $532.4M — —

3. BLMN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BLMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Bloomin' Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: BLMN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $10.90 (+3.12% 1D, market cap $905.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BLMN ranks #330 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BLMN compare to BH and FWRG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), BLMN carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 111.1x, gross margin of 70.2%, and ROIC of 10.7%. By comparison, BH (Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B)) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $916.0M) and FWRG (First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 39.7x, ROIC 3.6%, cap $786.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FWRG leads on earnings multiple (39.7x) while BLMN leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BLMN?

Per BLMN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001546417), Bloomin' Brands Inc. generated $3.96B in revenue (+0.1% YoY), $8.2M in net income, and $96.8M in free cash flow against $3.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 111x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BLMN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BLMN last traded at $10.90 (+3.12% on volume of 2,617,486 shares), positioning the stock +18.09% above its 50-day simple moving average ($9.23) and +37.80% above its 200-day simple moving average ($7.91). Across its 52-week range of $5.19 to $12.63, BLMN sits at the 76.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($9.54 to $12.26).

Direct Sub-Reports: BLMN RQD Cockpit BLMN 12M Forecast BLMN Earnings & Move BLMN Dividends & DRIP BLMN Insiders & 13F BLMN Whale Options BLMN Profit Sankey BLMN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BLMN — Bloomin' Brands Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-28

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Bloomin' Brands Inc. (BLMN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 60/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $10.90 (+3.12% 1D, market capitalization $905.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.7%, gross margin of 70.2%, operating margin of 0.9%, and free cash flow yield of 10.57%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.84, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Bloomin' Brands Inc. (BLMN) is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating within the Restaurants industry. The issuer has a market capitalization of $0.9B. Gross margin is reported at 70.2%, operating margin at 0.9%, and net margin at 0.2%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-28), Bloomin' Brands Inc. (BLMN) reported $3.96B in annual revenue (up from $3.95B in FY2024, +0.1% YoY) and $8.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.17B revenue, $247.4M net income) through FY2025, BLMN scaled operating cash flow to $276.7M and free cash flow to $96.8M, backed by $3.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 60/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 10.57% and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.19 – $12.63 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 111x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 111.1x trailing P/E and 4.5x EV/EBITDA against 0.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream supplier dependencies, downstream customer relationships, or sector correlation coefficients. A prospective investor should note that the Consumer Discretionary and Restaurants classification alone does not establish any second-order linkages in this dataset.

  • Key Question #1: Can BLMN sustain or expand its 0.9% operating margin and 10.7% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.96B and free cash flow of $96.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BLMN's 103.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BLMN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bloomin' Brands Inc. (BLMN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BLMN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BLMN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.90?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BLMN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BLMN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.37 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 10.57% FCF yield and ROIC of 10.7% show the cash engine generating meaningful returns despite thin reported margins.

The street is overcomplicating Bloomin' Brands Inc. (BLMN). A 10.57% FCF yield and ROIC of 10.7% show the cash engine generating meaningful returns despite thin reported margins.. With an RQD score of 60/100 (C-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $11.42.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — BLMN's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.56 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $10.57

A 0.84 Altman Z-Score and a 111.1 trailing P/E leave little margin for error if free cash flow keeps declining from $532.4M in FY 2023.

I respect the product at Bloomin' Brands Inc., but the stock at $10.57 is a different story. A 0.84 Altman Z-Score and a 111.1 trailing P/E leave little margin for error if free cash flow keeps declining from $532.4M in FY 2023.. FCF yield is 10.57% and RQD sits at 60/100 (C-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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