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Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$29.21 +2.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.31

Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $473.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BMRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Bank of Marin Bancorp (NASDAQ: BMRC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $29.21 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $473.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BMRC ranks #316 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BMRC compare to CBK and PBAM in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BMRC carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, CBK (Commercial Bancgroup Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 13.0%, cap $461.5M) and PBAM (Private Bancorp of America Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $492.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CBK leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while CBK leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BMRC?
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Per BMRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001403475), Bank of Marin Bancorp generated $1.64B in revenue (+5.5% YoY), $26.5M in net income, and $37.3M in free cash flow against $3.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.31 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 2.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (11)Whales (12)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$35 Bull$30 Base$23 Bear
📬 FREE BMRC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BMRC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BMRC SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$26.12+2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$26.64+8.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$28.89+1.1% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$29.21+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BMRC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, BMRC faces multiple-compression risk if 17.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($27.45) or 200D SMA ($26.83) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($29.87) toward Bear Floor ($23.30).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BMRC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BMRC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±5.4%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (BMRC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for BMRC.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating BMRC & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on BMRC
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BMRC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.95%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $28.37H $29.21L $28.37C $29.21VOL 98.8K
RES: $29.53SUP: $25.26SMA50: $27.45SMA200: $26.83
$31.34$29.61$27.89$26.16$24.43RES $29.53SUP $25.26$29.212026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BMRC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BMRC Butterfly Map → + Track BMRC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
10.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BMRC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BMRC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BMRC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BMRC)

Financials Rank #316 of 1097 ⚔️ CBK vs BMRC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BMRC vs. CBK, PBAM, FRBA, RBB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) ranks #316 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #713 by equity capitalization ($473.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CBK leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while CBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with BMRC at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BMRC ACTIVE
Bank of Marin Bancorp
C 63/100 17.6x — 6.7% +2.96% $473.0M Benchmark Subject
CBK
Commercial Bancgroup Inc.
C+ 67/100 12.2x — 13.0% +2.46% $461.5M /cbk-vs-bmrc →
PBAM
Private Bancorp of America Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — — +0.67% $492.2M /pbam-vs-bmrc →
FRBA
First Bank
D+ 57/100 — — — +3.40% $504.7M /frba-vs-bmrc →
RBB
RBB Bancorp
C- 59/100 13.8x — 6.1% +2.35% $442.4M /rbb-vs-bmrc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001403475 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.64B (+5.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.55B , and +1110.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $26.5M, operating cash flow of $39.1M, and free cash flow of $37.3M (+33.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BMRC closed FY2025 with $3.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.64B $26.5M $39.1M $37.3M $3.90B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.55B $14.5M $28.4M $27.8M $3.70B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $135.5M $19.9M $35.7M $35.7M — —

3. BMRC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BMRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Bank of Marin Bancorp (NASDAQ: BMRC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $29.21 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $473.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BMRC ranks #316 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BMRC compare to CBK and PBAM in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BMRC carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, CBK (Commercial Bancgroup Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 13.0%, cap $461.5M) and PBAM (Private Bancorp of America Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $492.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CBK leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while CBK leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BMRC?

Per BMRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001403475), Bank of Marin Bancorp generated $1.64B in revenue (+5.5% YoY), $26.5M in net income, and $37.3M in free cash flow against $3.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BMRC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BMRC last traded at $29.21 (+2.96% on volume of 98,797 shares), positioning the stock +6.41% above its 50-day simple moving average ($27.45) and +8.87% above its 200-day simple moving average ($26.83). Across its 52-week range of $23.35 to $30.92, BMRC sits at the 77.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($27.63 to $30.79).

Direct Sub-Reports: BMRC RQD Cockpit BMRC 12M Forecast BMRC Earnings & Move BMRC Dividends & DRIP BMRC Insiders & 13F BMRC Whale Options BMRC Profit Sankey BMRC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BMRC — Bank of Marin Bancorp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $29.21 (+2.96% 1D, market capitalization $473.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.99%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Major Banks industry,. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $0.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) reported $1.64B in annual revenue (up from $1.55B in FY2024, +5.5% YoY) and $26.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($135.5M revenue, $19.9M net income) through FY2025, BMRC scaled operating cash flow to $39.1M and free cash flow to $37.3M, backed by $3.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.99% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $23.35 – $30.92 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 17.6x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream dependencies, downstream customers, and 2nd-order bottlenecks are — The only sector context in the source is the classification of Financials / Major Banks and the beta of 1.0. An investor should therefore treat ripple effects as unmapped in this dataset.

  • Key Question #1: Can BMRC sustain or expand its — operating margin and 6.7% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.64B and free cash flow of $37.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BMRC's 16.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BMRC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BMRC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BMRC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.21?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BMRC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BMRC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $33.76 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 15 of 20 on the RQD rating, supported by reported director purchases alongside a 3.46% dividend yield and a 7

Don't sleep on BMRC's setup in Financials. Insider conviction scores 15 of 20 on the RQD rating, supported by reported director purchases alongside a 3.46% dividend yield and a 7.99% FCF yield.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (63/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — BMRC's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $22.13 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $28.37

A RED risk-watch item flags a price-target cut to $31.2, and the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores only 11 of 20 with ROIC at 6.7%.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short BMRC above $28.37. A RED risk-watch item flags a price-target cut to $31.2, and the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores only 11 of 20 with ROIC at 6.7%.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20) and FCF yield (7.99%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $30.92.

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