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Why BRLT Stock dropped -4.46% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$1.50 -4.46% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.49

Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $159.9M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BRLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: BRLT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $1.50 (-4.46% 1D, market cap $159.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BRLT ranks #514 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BRLT compare to ELA and FOSL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), BRLT carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 57.5%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ELA (Envela Corporation) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $290.8M) and FOSL (Fossil Group Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $392.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ELA leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BRLT?
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Per BRLT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001866757), Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) generated $437.5M in revenue (+3.6% YoY), -$3.6M in net income, and $5.8M in free cash flow against $200.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.49 (-0.99%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 1.3% FCF Margin
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📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
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RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510052
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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (9)Whales (12)SEC (10)Macro (13)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
$3 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE BRLT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BRLT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BRLT SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 26% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 61.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$1.46+4.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$1.52-0.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$1.51-0.7% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$1.50-1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BRLT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BRLT currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.43) and Max Pain ($1.58) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.04.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BRLT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BRLT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why BRLT Stock dropped -4.46% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) dropped -4.46% to $1.50, trading at 26% of its 52-week range ($1 – $2.9). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 26% of its 52-week range ($1 – $2.9) with RSI-14 at 61.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $1.50 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 57.5% gross margin and $5.8M annual free cash flow.
Live BRLT Headlines & Catalysts
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BRLT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BRLT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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BRLT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.35%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $1.59H $1.59L $1.50C $1.50VOL 58.7K
RES: $1.73SUP: $1.10SMA50: $1.43SMA200: $1.34
$1.91$1.66$1.42$1.17$0.92RES $1.73SUP $1.10$1.502026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BRLT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BRLT Butterfly Map → + Track BRLT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BRLT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BRLT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BRLT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BRLT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #514 of 1009 ⚔️ ELA vs BRLT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BRLT vs. ELA, FOSL, MOV, VSTS)

Industry: Consumer Specialties (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) ranks #514 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #715 by equity capitalization ($159.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ELA leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while ELA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.7% ROIC and 22.4% gross margin. MOV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with BRLT at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BRLT ACTIVE
Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A)
D+ 52/100 — 57.5% -35.0% -4.46% $159.9M Benchmark Subject
ELA
Envela Corporation
D+ 55/100 20.2x 22.4% 20.7% +0.45% $290.8M /ela-vs-brlt →
FOSL
Fossil Group Inc.
D- 36/100 — 56.1% -7.2% +2.56% $392.7M /fosl-vs-brlt →
MOV
Movado Group Inc.
C 63/100 26.6x 54.2% 8.5% +2.08% $696.4M /mov-vs-brlt →
VSTS
Vestis Corporation
D+ 53/100 — — 2.6% -1.01% $1.96B /vsts-vs-brlt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001866757 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) reported GAAP revenue of $437.5M (+3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $422.2M , and -2.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$3.6M, operating cash flow of $9.7M, and free cash flow of $5.8M (-54.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, BRLT closed FY2025 with $200.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $437.5M -$3.6M $9.7M $5.8M $200.9M $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $422.2M $541.0K $17.6M $12.7M $281.2M $50.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $446.4M $584.0K $26.2M $26.2M — —

3. BRLT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BRLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: BRLT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $1.50 (-4.46% 1D, market cap $159.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BRLT ranks #514 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BRLT compare to ELA and FOSL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), BRLT carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 57.5%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ELA (Envela Corporation) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $290.8M) and FOSL (Fossil Group Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $392.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ELA leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BRLT?

Per BRLT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001866757), Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) generated $437.5M in revenue (+3.6% YoY), -$3.6M in net income, and $5.8M in free cash flow against $200.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BRLT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BRLT last traded at $1.50 (-4.46% on volume of 62,900 shares), positioning the stock +4.90% above its 50-day simple moving average ($1.43) and +11.94% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.34). Across its 52-week range of $1.00 to $2.90, BRLT sits at the 26.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.31 to $1.69).

Direct Sub-Reports: BRLT RQD Cockpit BRLT 12M Forecast BRLT Earnings & Move BRLT Dividends & DRIP BRLT Insiders & 13F BRLT Whale Options BRLT Profit Sankey BRLT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BRLT — Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.50 (-4.46% 1D, market capitalization $159.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 57.5%, operating margin of -1.2%, and free cash flow yield of 3.55%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.20, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.00x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Consumer Specialties industry. Reported revenue appears in the SEC financials below.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) reported $437.5M in annual revenue (up from $422.2M in FY2024, +3.6% YoY) and -$3.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($446.4M revenue, $584.0K net income) through FY2025, BRLT scaled operating cash flow to $9.7M and free cash flow to $5.8M, backed by $200.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 52/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 3.55% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.00 – $2.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -1.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. Sector correlations are limited to the Consumer Discretionary classification and the beta of 1.0. The Signet item in the news feed is the only cross-company reference, and its relevance to BRLT is not established by the source. A prospective investor should treat second-order ripples as unmapped.

  • Key Question #1: Can BRLT sustain or expand its -1.2% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Consumer Specialties peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $437.5M and free cash flow of $5.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BRLT's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BRLT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BRLT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BRLT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.50?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BRLT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BRLT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.85 (+17.8%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue held above $420M in each reported year while the balance sheet moved to zero debt and the FCF yield stands at 3.55%.

Here is why I am bullish on BRLT here at $1.57: Revenue held above $420M in each reported year while the balance sheet moved to zero debt and the FCF yield stands at 3.55%.. Compare BRLT's -1.2% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Consumer Specialties. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $1.49 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — BRLT's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.35 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $1.57

ROIC of -35% and an FY 2025 operating loss of -$5.4M show the business is not currently earning returns on its capital.

I respect the product at Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A), but the stock at $1.57 is a different story. ROIC of -35% and an FY 2025 operating loss of -$5.4M show the business is not currently earning returns on its capital.. FCF yield is 3.55% and RQD sits at 52/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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