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ILPT (49) TCI (39) FVR (45) NXRT (41) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$3.48 -2.52% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.46

BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $445.1M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BRSP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: BRSP) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $3.48 (-2.52% 1D, market cap $445.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BRSP ranks #977 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BRSP compare to ILPT and TCI in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BRSP carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -3.3%. By comparison, ILPT (Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.5%, cap $442.1M) and TCI (Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E 31.6x, ROIC -0.6%, cap $439.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCI leads on earnings multiple (31.6x) while NXRT leads on capital efficiency (7.8% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BRSP?
β–Ό

Per BRSP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001717547), BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) generated $330.6M in revenue (-7.9% YoY), -$31.1M in net income, and $73.0M in free cash flow against $3.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.46 (-0.64%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) β€’ 22.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510035
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk D-
Cash (7)Whales (3)SEC (11)Macro (5)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.3% Base Target
$6 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE BRSP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BRSP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY BRSP SCORES 35/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 4/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy β€’ Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
43
Grade D$3.70-2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$3.62+1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$3.66-4.9% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$3.48-8.5% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (43) β†’ D- (35)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BRSP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While BRSP currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.04) and Max Pain ($3.65) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.47.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BRSPβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œBRSP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How BRSP Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$73.0M (22.1% FCF Margin)
Revenue$330.6MGross Profit $171.9M (52%)Cost of Sales $158.7MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $171.9MNet Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $415.1M
FY24
Rev $358.8M
FY25
Rev $330.6M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$330.6M52%0%-$31.1M$73.0M-3.3%
FY 2024$358.8M52%0%-$132.0M$103.4M-3.3%
FY 2023$415.1M52%0%-$15.5M$137.6M-3.3%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BRSP)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of BRSP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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BRSP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.02%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $3.42H $3.57L $3.42C $3.48VOL 2.48M
RES: $3.78SUP: $3.27SMA50: $4.04SMA200: $5.21
$6.18$5.43$4.68$3.94$3.19RES $3.78SUP $3.27$3.482026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BRSP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ BRSP Butterfly Map β†’ + Track BRSP β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -7.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BRSP today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BRSP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BRSP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BRSP)

Financials Rank #977 of 1097 βš”οΈ ILPT vs BRSP Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BRSP vs. ILPT, TCI, FVR, NXRT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) ranks #977 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #728 by equity capitalization ($445.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCI leads on earnings valuation at 31.6x trailing P/E, while NXRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.8% ROIC and β€” gross margin. ILPT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with BRSP at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BRSP ACTIVE
BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A)
D- 35/100 β€” β€” -3.3% -2.52% $445.1M Benchmark Subject
ILPT
Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of
D 49/100 β€” β€” -13.5% -2.42% $442.1M /ilpt-vs-brsp β†’
TCI
Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc.
D- 39/100 31.6x β€” -0.6% -2.50% $439.4M /tci-vs-brsp β†’
FVR
FrontView REIT Inc.
D 45/100 β€” β€” -1.2% -0.11% $459.8M /fvr-vs-brsp β†’
NXRT
NexPoint Residential Trust Inc.
D- 41/100 β€” β€” 7.8% -8.65% $460.9M /nxrt-vs-brsp β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001717547 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) reported GAAP revenue of $330.6M (-7.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $358.8M , and -20.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.1M, operating cash flow of $73.0M, and free cash flow of $73.0M (-29.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, BRSP closed FY2025 with $3.56B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $330.6M -$31.1M $73.0M $73.0M $3.56B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $358.8M -$132.0M $103.4M $103.4M $3.72B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $415.1M -$15.5M $137.6M $137.6M β€” β€”

3. BRSP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BRSP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: BRSP) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $3.48 (-2.52% 1D, market cap $445.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BRSP ranks #977 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BRSP compare to ILPT and TCI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BRSP carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -3.3%. By comparison, ILPT (Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.5%, cap $442.1M) and TCI (Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E 31.6x, ROIC -0.6%, cap $439.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCI leads on earnings multiple (31.6x) while NXRT leads on capital efficiency (7.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BRSP?

Per BRSP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001717547), BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) generated $330.6M in revenue (-7.9% YoY), -$31.1M in net income, and $73.0M in free cash flow against $3.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BRSP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BRSP last traded at $3.48 (-2.52% on volume of 1,591,385 shares), positioning the stock -13.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.04) and -33.21% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.21). Across its 52-week range of $3.42 to $6.16, BRSP sits at the 2.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.8% ($3.21 to $3.75).

Direct Sub-Reports: BRSP RQD Cockpit BRSP 12M Forecast BRSP Earnings & Move BRSP Dividends & DRIP BRSP Insiders & 13F BRSP Whale Options BRSP Profit Sankey BRSP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 35/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BRSP β€” BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.48 (-2.52% 1D, market capitalization $445.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -3.3%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 16.59%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. The market capitalization is $0.4B. Revenue figures are reported in the Financial Trend section.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) reported $330.6M in annual revenue (up from $358.8M in FY2024, -7.9% YoY) and -$31.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($415.1M revenue, -$15.5M net income) through FY2025, BRSP scaled operating cash flow to $73.0M and free cash flow to $73.0M, backed by $3.56B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 16.59% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.42 – $6.16 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No supply-chain dependencies, butterfly links, or proprietary signals are mapped for BRSP. The only sector-level input is the Macro Regime Fit pillar's note on sector sensitivity, which scores 5/20 .

  • Key Question #1: Can BRSP sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and -3.3% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $330.6M and free cash flow of $73.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BRSP's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BRSP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A) (BRSP) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to BRSP Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BRSP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $3.48?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BRSP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BRSP:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Systematic Momentum Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.45 (+30.1%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

A 16.59% FCF yield and reported FY 2025 free cash flow of $73.0M indicate meaningful cash generation relative to the $440.1M market cap

Here is why I am bullish on BRSP here at $3.42: A 16.59% FCF yield and reported FY 2025 free cash flow of $73.0M indicate meaningful cash generation relative to the $440.1M market cap.. Compare BRSP's 0.0% operating margin and -3.3% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate Investment Trusts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $3.25 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 35/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $3.42 and keeping dry powder in case we test $3.18.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.84 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $3.42

Negative ROIC of -3.3%, net losses in every reported period, and weak institutional and insider scores (3/20 and 9/20) signal limited s

I respect the product at BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A), but the stock at $3.42 is a different story. Negative ROIC of -3.3%, net losses in every reported period, and weak institutional and insider scores (3/20 and 9/20) signal limited support for the balance sheet and flow.. FCF yield is 16.59% and RQD sits at 35/100 (D-) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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