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Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$42.66 +2.47% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.77

Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $553.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BSRR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BSRR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Sierra Bancorp (NASDAQ: BSRR) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $42.66 (+2.47% 1D, market cap $553.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BSRR ranks #283 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BSRR compare to NPB and BSVN in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BSRR carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, NPB (Northpointe Bancshares Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $549.5M) and BSVN (Bank7 Corp.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 13.1x, ROIC 17.2%, cap $558.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPB leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BSRR?
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Per BSRR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001130144), Sierra Bancorp generated $1.61B in revenue (+5.9% YoY), $42.3M in net income, and $32.2M in free cash flow against $3.83B in total assets and $49.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.77 (+0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (10)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$52 Bull$44 Base$34 Bear
📬 FREE BSRR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BSRR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BSRR SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.9% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 10 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$38.86+2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$39.65+6.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$42.34+0.8% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$42.66+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BSRR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, BSRR faces multiple-compression risk if 13.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($40.30) or 200D SMA ($38.36) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($43.81) toward Bear Floor ($34.17).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BSRR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BSRR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BSRR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $42.66: 234.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $34.17
$8,010
$-1,990 (-19.9%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $43.81
$10,270
+$270 (+2.7%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $51.70
$12,119
+$2,119 (+21.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$4674%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$4969%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BSRR Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
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BSRR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.56%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $41.63H $42.66L $41.63C $42.66VOL 93.8K
RES: $44.26SUP: $37.67SMA50: $40.30SMA200: $38.36
$44.82$41.42$38.01$34.61$31.20RES $44.26SUP $37.67$42.662026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BSRR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BSRR Butterfly Map → + Track BSRR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
4.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BSRR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BSRR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BSRR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BSRR)

Financials Rank #283 of 1097 ⚔️ NPB vs BSRR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BSRR vs. NPB, BSVN, COFS, OBT)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) ranks #283 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #677 by equity capitalization ($553.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NPB leads on earnings valuation at 6.7x trailing P/E, while BSVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BSVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with BSRR at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BSRR ACTIVE
Sierra Bancorp
C 64/100 13.0x — 11.6% +2.47% $553.1M Benchmark Subject
NPB
Northpointe Bancshares Inc.
D+ 58/100 6.7x — 14.7% +0.63% $549.5M /npb-vs-bsrr →
BSVN
Bank7 Corp.
B- 71/100 13.1x — 17.2% +0.02% $558.6M /bsvn-vs-bsrr →
COFS
ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc.
C 64/100 18.6x — 6.1% +2.40% $542.9M /cofs-vs-bsrr →
OBT
Orange County Bancorp Inc.
C+ 69/100 12.4x — 14.6% +3.67% $537.8M /obt-vs-bsrr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001130144 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) reported GAAP revenue of $1.61B (+5.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.52B , and +694.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $42.3M, operating cash flow of $33.7M, and free cash flow of $32.2M (-42.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, BSRR closed FY2025 with $3.83B in total assets against $49.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.61B $42.3M $33.7M $32.2M $3.83B $49.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.52B $40.6M $57.2M $56.0M $3.61B $49.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $202.3M $34.8M $53.2M $53.2M — —

3. BSRR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BSRR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Sierra Bancorp (NASDAQ: BSRR) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $42.66 (+2.47% 1D, market cap $553.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BSRR ranks #283 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BSRR compare to NPB and BSVN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BSRR carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, NPB (Northpointe Bancshares Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $549.5M) and BSVN (Bank7 Corp.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 13.1x, ROIC 17.2%, cap $558.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPB leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BSRR?

Per BSRR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001130144), Sierra Bancorp generated $1.61B in revenue (+5.9% YoY), $42.3M in net income, and $32.2M in free cash flow against $3.83B in total assets and $49.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BSRR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BSRR last traded at $42.66 (+2.47% on volume of 93,807 shares), positioning the stock +5.86% above its 50-day simple moving average ($40.30) and +11.21% above its 200-day simple moving average ($38.36). Across its 52-week range of $27.93 to $44.00, BSRR sits at the 91.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($40.14 to $45.18).

Direct Sub-Reports: BSRR RQD Cockpit BSRR 12M Forecast BSRR Earnings & Move BSRR Dividends & DRIP BSRR Insiders & 13F BSRR Whale Options BSRR Profit Sankey BSRR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BSRR — Sierra Bancorp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 64/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $42.66 (+2.47% 1D, market capitalization $553.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 5.85%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) is a NASDAQ-listed company classified under the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry. The profile identifies its market capitalization as $0.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) reported $1.61B in annual revenue (up from $1.52B in FY2024, +5.9% YoY) and $42.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($202.3M revenue, $34.8M net income) through FY2025, BSRR scaled operating cash flow to $33.7M and free cash flow to $32.2M, backed by $3.83B in total assets against $49.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 64/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 5.85% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $27.93 – $44.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 13.0x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), BSRR carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can BSRR sustain or expand its — operating margin and 11.6% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.61B and free cash flow of $32.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $49.5M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BSRR's 12.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BSRR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BSRR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BSRR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $42.66?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BSRR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BSRR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $50.28 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 16/20 and the stock trades at a P/E of 13 with a forward P/E of 12.1 while net income rose each year from $34

Long BSRR at $41.90 targeting $50.28. Insider conviction scores 16/20 and the stock trades at a P/E of 13 with a forward P/E of 12.1 while net income rose each year from $34.8M to $42.3M.. Institutional whale score is 13/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $27.93 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — BSRR's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $32.26 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $41.90

Free cash flow fell from $56.0M in FY 2024 to $32.2M in FY 2025 and the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak forensic strength.

Fading this rally in BSRR at $41.90. Free cash flow fell from $56.0M in FY 2024 to $32.2M in FY 2025 and the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak forensic strength.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $41.90 (52-wk range $27.93–$44.00), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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