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Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$4.79 -10.97% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.71

Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $3.40B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BTE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BTE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Baytex Energy Corp (NYSE: BTE) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $4.79 (-10.97% 1D, market cap $3.40B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, BTE ranks #39 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BTE compare to CPK and PARR in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), BTE carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, CPK (Chesapeake Utilities Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 23.3x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $3.36B) and PARR (Par Pacific Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 9.9x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $3.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PARR leads on earnings multiple (9.9x) while PARR leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BTE?
▼

For Baytex Energy Corp (BTE), key quantitative strengths include Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side and Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs., while primary risk factors center on Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.71 (-1.73%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 1.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510070
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk B
Cash (11)Whales (17)SEC (16)Macro (14)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
$6 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE BTE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BTE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BTE SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 13.9% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
78
Grade A-$5.16+3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
75
Grade B+$5.32+0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$5.37-10.8% Next Q
Current
70
Grade B-$4.79+6.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A- (78) → B- (70)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BTE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, BTE faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.97) or 200D SMA ($4.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($5.05) toward Bear Floor ($3.93).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BTE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BTE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BTE Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.79: 2087.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.93
$8,205
$-1,795 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $5.05
$10,543
+$543 (+5.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $5.96
$12,443
+$2,443 (+24.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BTE Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
BTE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.41%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $5.38H $5.38L $4.79C $4.79VOL 20.85M
RES: $5.63SUP: $4.67SMA50: $4.97SMA200: $4.44
$5.78$5.06$4.34$3.62$2.90RES $5.63SUP $4.67$4.792026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BTE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BTE Butterfly Map → + Track BTE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BTE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BTE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BTE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BTE)

Energy Rank #39 of 211 ⚔️ CPK vs BTE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (BTE vs. CPK, PARR, SDRL, HP)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) ranks #39 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #102 by equity capitalization ($3.40B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PARR leads on earnings valuation at 9.9x trailing P/E, while PARR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.8% ROIC and — gross margin. PARR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with BTE at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BTE ACTIVE
Baytex Energy Corp
B- 70/100 32.8x — 9.9% -10.97% $3.40B Benchmark Subject
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities Corporation
D+ 58/100 23.3x — 6.9% +2.11% $3.36B /cpk-vs-bte →
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings Inc.
B+ 78/100 9.9x — 19.8% -5.35% $3.62B /parr-vs-bte →
SDRL
Seadrill Limited
D 48/100 — — 1.2% -9.21% $2.99B /sdrl-vs-bte →
HP
Helmerich & Payne Inc.
C 62/100 — — 0.1% -9.65% $3.88B /hp-vs-bte →

2. BTE Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) operates in Oil & Gas Production (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $3.40B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 30.5x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.

3. BTE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BTE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Baytex Energy Corp (NYSE: BTE) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $4.79 (-10.97% 1D, market cap $3.40B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, BTE ranks #39 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BTE compare to CPK and PARR in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), BTE carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, CPK (Chesapeake Utilities Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 23.3x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $3.36B) and PARR (Par Pacific Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 9.9x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $3.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PARR leads on earnings multiple (9.9x) while PARR leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BTE?

For Baytex Energy Corp (BTE), key quantitative strengths include Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side and Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs., while primary risk factors center on Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BTE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BTE last traded at $4.79 (-10.97% on volume of 20,853,545 shares), positioning the stock -3.62% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.97) and +7.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.44). Across its 52-week range of $2.31 to $5.61, BTE sits at the 75.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($4.43 to $5.15).

Direct Sub-Reports: BTE RQD Cockpit BTE 12M Forecast BTE Earnings & Move BTE Dividends & DRIP BTE Insiders & 13F BTE Whale Options BTE Profit Sankey BTE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BTE — Baytex Energy Corp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 70/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $4.79 (-10.97% 1D, market capitalization $3.40B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.01x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.74, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, operating within the Oil & Gas Production industry. Its market capitalization is $3.8B. Per the market data, its operating margin is 13.9% and its net margin is 10.9%; gross margin is reported as 0%.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 70/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.31 – $5.61 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 32.8x trailing P/E and 21.0x EV/EBITDA against 13.9% operating margins and a 1.01x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector and industry are recorded as Energy and Oil & Gas Production, but no upstream or downstream dependencies, correlations, or bottlenecks are provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can BTE sustain or expand its 13.9% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (2.21% FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score 3.74) toward the $5.61 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BTE's 30.5x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.01x)?

BTE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BTE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BTE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.79?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BTE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BTE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.51 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 3.74, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.39) and the highest pillar, whale 13F flow at 17/20, point

Strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 3.74, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.39) and the highest pillar, whale 13F flow at 17/20, point to institutional accumulation.. When you look under the hood at BTE, Fundamental Cash Engine is 11/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 9.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (17/20) has been quietly accumulating below $5.61. My 12M target is $6.51.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on 32.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.14 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $5.38

A trailing P/E of 32.8 on EPS of 0.16 and an FCF yield of only 2.21% leave the valuation stretched against thin per-share earnings.

A trailing P/E of 32.8 on EPS of 0.16 and an FCF yield of only 2.21% leave the valuation stretched against thin per-share earnings.. Look at the math on BTE: paying 32.8x trailing P/E for 9.9% ROIC and 13.9% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Oil & Gas Production demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $4.73 before getting long.

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