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Why CBK Stock slipped -1.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$33.05 -1.87% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.88

Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $461.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (NASDAQ: CBK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $33.05 (-1.87% 1D, market cap $461.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CBK ranks #175 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CBK compare to BMRC and RBB in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CBK carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.0%. By comparison, BMRC (Bank of Marin Bancorp) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $473.0M) and RBB (RBB Bancorp) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $442.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CBK leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while CBK leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBK?
▼

Per CBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001981546), Commercial Bancgroup Inc. generated $962.4M in revenue (-0.4% YoY), $37.2M in net income, and $35.2M in free cash flow against $2.29B in total assets and $78.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.87 (-0.53%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (12)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
$41 Bull$34 Base$27 Bear
📬 FREE CBK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CBK SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (19% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$31.07+0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$31.28+4.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$32.61+1.3% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$33.05+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, CBK faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($32.52) or 200D SMA ($30.18) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($34.39) toward Bear Floor ($26.82).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why CBK Stock slipped -1.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) slipped -1.87% to $33.05, trading at 78% of its 52-week range ($23.24 – $35.78). Solid steady margins (13% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 78% of its 52-week range ($23.24 – $35.78) with RSI-14 at 67.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.9% around $33.05 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $35.2M annual free cash flow.
Live CBK Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CBK Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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CBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.92%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $32.87H $33.68L $32.87C $33.05VOL 47.7K
RES: $38.54SUP: $30.03SMA50: $32.52SMA200: $30.18
$36.49$33.54$30.59$27.64$24.69RES $38.54SUP $30.03$33.052026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CBK Butterfly Map → + Track CBK →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CBK)

Financials Rank #175 of 1097 ⚔️ BMRC vs CBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CBK vs. BMRC, RBB, CBAN, PBAM)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) ranks #175 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #720 by equity capitalization ($461.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CBK leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while CBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CBK currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CBK ACTIVE
Commercial Bancgroup Inc.
C+ 67/100 12.2x — 13.0% -1.87% $461.5M Benchmark Subject
BMRC
Bank of Marin Bancorp
C 63/100 17.6x — 6.7% -0.55% $473.0M /bmrc-vs-cbk →
RBB
RBB Bancorp
C- 59/100 13.8x — 6.1% -1.30% $442.4M /rbb-vs-cbk →
CBAN
Colony Bankcorp Inc.
E 29/100 65.5x — 1.8% -1.65% $437.6M /cban-vs-cbk →
PBAM
Private Bancorp of America Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — — +0.78% $492.2M /pbam-vs-cbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001981546 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) reported GAAP revenue of $962.4M (-0.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $966.5M ) , GAAP net income of $37.2M, operating cash flow of $37.1M, and free cash flow of $35.2M (-1.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, CBK closed FY2025 with $2.29B in total assets against $78.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $962.4M $37.2M $37.1M $35.2M $2.29B $78.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $966.5M $31.4M $38.7M $35.6M $2.30B $105.8M

3. CBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (NASDAQ: CBK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $33.05 (-1.87% 1D, market cap $461.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CBK ranks #175 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CBK compare to BMRC and RBB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CBK carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.0%. By comparison, BMRC (Bank of Marin Bancorp) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $473.0M) and RBB (RBB Bancorp) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $442.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CBK leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while CBK leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBK?

Per CBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001981546), Commercial Bancgroup Inc. generated $962.4M in revenue (-0.4% YoY), $37.2M in net income, and $35.2M in free cash flow against $2.29B in total assets and $78.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CBK last traded at $33.05 (-1.87% on volume of 26,009 shares), positioning the stock +1.63% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.52) and +9.51% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.18). Across its 52-week range of $23.24 to $35.78, CBK sits at the 78.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($31.43 to $34.67).

Direct Sub-Reports: CBK RQD Cockpit CBK 12M Forecast CBK Earnings & Move CBK Dividends & DRIP CBK Insiders & 13F CBK Whale Options CBK Profit Sankey CBK News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CBK — Commercial Bancgroup Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $33.05 (-1.87% 1D, market capitalization $461.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.79%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Major Banks industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $450.4M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13% (free cash flow yield of 7.79%). Within the Major Banks peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) reported $962.4M in annual revenue (up from $966.5M in FY2024, -0.4% YoY) and $37.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($966.5M revenue, $31.4M net income) through FY2025, CBK scaled operating cash flow to $37.1M and free cash flow to $35.2M, backed by $2.29B in total assets against $78.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.79% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $23.24 – $35.78 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 12.2x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), CBK carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can CBK sustain or expand its — operating margin and 13.0% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $962.4M and free cash flow of $35.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $78.6M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CBK's 11.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CBK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CBK Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CBK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $33.05?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CBK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CBK:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $43.39 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Net income rose from $31.4M to $37.2M while debt fell from $105.8M to $78.6M, supported by a 7.79% FCF yield and 13% ROIC.

Long CBK at $32.87 targeting $43.39. Net income rose from $31.4M to $37.2M while debt fell from $105.8M to $78.6M, supported by a 7.79% FCF yield and 13% ROIC.. Institutional whale score is 12/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $23.24 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 12/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $32.87 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $25.97 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $32.87

Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and cash declining from $178.2M to $144.3M, with no analyst or holder data to corroborate the rating.

Fading this rally in CBK at $32.87. Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and cash declining from $178.2M to $144.3M, with no analyst or holder data to corroborate the rating.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $32.87 (52-wk range $23.24–$35.78), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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