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Why CBSH Stock advanced +1.34% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$55.80 +1.34% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.83

Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $8.00B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CBSH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Commerce Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: CBSH) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $55.80 (+1.34% 1D, market cap $8.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CBSH ranks #128 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CBSH compare to BOKF and VLY in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CBSH carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.5%. By comparison, BOKF (BOK Financial Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 13.9x, ROIC 2.9%, cap $8.05B) and VLY (Valley National Bancorp) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 2.4%, cap $7.94B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WAL leads on earnings multiple (8.8x) while CBSH leads on capital efficiency (4.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBSH?
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Per CBSH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000022356), Commerce Bancshares Inc. generated $1.87B in revenue (+7.6% YoY), $566.3M in net income, and $592.4M in free cash flow against $32.92B in total assets and $13.10B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.83 (+0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 31.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk B
Cash (13)Whales (10)SEC (15)Macro (14)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$69 Bull$59 Base$46 Bear
📬 FREE CBSH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CBSH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CBSH SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$55.56+1.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$56.51-1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$55.60+0.4% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$55.80+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CBSH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, CBSH faces multiple-compression risk if 14.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($56.17) or 200D SMA ($54.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($58.56) toward Bear Floor ($45.68).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CBSH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CBSH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why CBSH Stock advanced +1.34% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) advanced +1.34% to $55.80, trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($46.99 – $60.92). Solid steady margins (5% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($46.99 – $60.92) with RSI-14 at 51.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±3.5% around $55.80 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 0% gross margin and $592.4M annual free cash flow.
Live CBSH Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CBSH Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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CBSH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.04%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $55.06H $55.80L $55.06C $55.80VOL 1.45M
RES: $56.07SUP: $54.35SMA50: $56.17SMA200: $54.44
$61.71$58.43$55.16$51.88$48.60RES $56.07SUP $54.35$55.802026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CBSH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CBSH Butterfly Map → + Track CBSH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
5.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CBSH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CBSH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CBSH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CBSH)

Financials Rank #128 of 1097 ⚔️ BOKF vs CBSH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CBSH vs. BOKF, VLY, WAL, CBC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) ranks #128 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #218 by equity capitalization ($8.00B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WAL leads on earnings valuation at 8.8x trailing P/E, while CBSH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.5% ROIC and — gross margin. CBSH currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CBSH ACTIVE
Commerce Bancshares Inc.
C+ 69/100 14.1x — 4.5% +1.34% $8.00B Benchmark Subject
BOKF
BOK Financial Corporation
D+ 56/100 13.9x — 2.9% +1.76% $8.05B /bokf-vs-cbsh →
VLY
Valley National Bancorp
C- 59/100 13.2x — 2.4% +2.19% $7.94B /vly-vs-cbsh →
WAL
Western Alliance Bancorporation
D- 38/100 8.8x — 2.9% +3.12% $8.46B /wal-vs-cbsh →
CBC
Central Bancompany Inc.
C 65/100 22.0x — 4.5% +2.59% $8.83B /cbc-vs-cbsh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000022356 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.87B (+7.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.74B , and +18.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $566.3M, operating cash flow of $645.1M, and free cash flow of $592.4M (+11.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, CBSH closed FY2025 with $32.92B in total assets against $13.10B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.87B $566.3M $645.1M $592.4M $32.92B $13.10B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.74B $526.3M $577.9M $531.7M $32.00B $12.90B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.58B $477.1M $488.8M $488.8M $4.39B $1.03B

3. CBSH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CBSH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Commerce Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: CBSH) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $55.80 (+1.34% 1D, market cap $8.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CBSH ranks #128 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CBSH compare to BOKF and VLY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CBSH carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.5%. By comparison, BOKF (BOK Financial Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 13.9x, ROIC 2.9%, cap $8.05B) and VLY (Valley National Bancorp) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 2.4%, cap $7.94B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WAL leads on earnings multiple (8.8x) while CBSH leads on capital efficiency (4.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBSH?

Per CBSH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000022356), Commerce Bancshares Inc. generated $1.87B in revenue (+7.6% YoY), $566.3M in net income, and $592.4M in free cash flow against $32.92B in total assets and $13.10B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CBSH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CBSH last traded at $55.80 (+1.34% on volume of 1,446,633 shares), positioning the stock -0.66% below its 50-day simple moving average ($56.17) and +2.50% above its 200-day simple moving average ($54.44). Across its 52-week range of $46.99 to $60.92, CBSH sits at the 63.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.5% ($53.85 to $57.75).

Direct Sub-Reports: CBSH RQD Cockpit CBSH 12M Forecast CBSH Earnings & Move CBSH Dividends & DRIP CBSH Insiders & 13F CBSH Whale Options CBSH Profit Sankey CBSH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CBSH — Commerce Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $55.80 (+1.34% 1D, market capitalization $8.00B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 30.9%, and free cash flow yield of 7.43%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.88x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Commerce Bancshares Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry, profile.. Details of its products, customer segments, and revenue mix are — The reported market capitalization is $7.97B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) reported $1.87B in annual revenue (up from $1.74B in FY2024, +7.6% YoY) and $566.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.58B revenue, $477.1M net income) through FY2025, CBSH scaled operating cash flow to $645.1M and free cash flow to $592.4M, backed by $32.92B in total assets against $13.10B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $46.99 – $60.92 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.1x trailing P/E and 22.1x EV/EBITDA against 30.9% operating margins and a 0.88x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

There are no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals recorded (supply_chain: NONE; butterfly_links: empty). Sector correlation data, customer or supplier dependencies, and second-order bottlenecks are — The only sector context is the Financials / Major Banks classification.

  • Key Question #1: Can CBSH sustain or expand its 30.9% operating margin and 4.5% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.87B and free cash flow of $592.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $13.10B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CBSH's 11.8x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.88x)?

CBSH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CBSH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CBSH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $55.80?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CBSH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CBSH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $68.27 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (17/20) and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 signal strong insider backing and balance-sheet health, with the stock tradin

Here is why I am bullish on CBSH here at $55.06: Insider conviction (17/20) and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 signal strong insider backing and balance-sheet health, with the stock trading at a forward P/E of 11.8.. Compare CBSH's 30.9% operating margin and 4.5% ROIC against the rest of Major Banks. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $52.31 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 69/100 quality, though with 0.88 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $55.06 and keeping dry powder in case we test $51.21.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $46.25 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $55.06

A 4.5% ROIC and an EV/EBITDA of 22.1 leave the return and valuation case weak, and institutional flow scores only 10/20.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short CBSH above $55.06. A 4.5% ROIC and an EV/EBITDA of 22.1 leave the return and valuation case weak, and institutional flow scores only 10/20.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20) and FCF yield (7.43%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $60.92.

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