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BUR (33) CD (38) WRLD (55) LU (44) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$10.98 +1.86% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.00

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $741.7M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CGBD Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CGBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (NASDAQ: CGBD) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $10.98 (+1.86% 1D, market cap $741.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CGBD ranks #936 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CGBD compare to BUR and CD in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CGBD carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, BUR (Burford Capital Limited) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $744.0M) and CD (Chaince Digital Holdings Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $739.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGBD leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while WRLD leads on capital efficiency (9.8% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGBD?
β–Ό

Per CGBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001544206), Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. generated $1.17B in revenue (+44.9% YoY), $70.0M in net income, and -$204.6M in free cash flow against $2.79B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.00 (+0.14%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510038
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- Β· Rk D-
Cash (4)Whales (8)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$14 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE CGBD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CGBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY CGBD SCORES 38/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 1/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+10/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 50% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$10.48-3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$10.13+3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$10.49+4.7% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$10.98-7.8% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (30) β†’ D- (38)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CGBD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While CGBD currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.98) and Max Pain ($11.53) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $13.94.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CGBDβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œCGBD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

CGBD Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (CGBD)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on CGBD. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CGBD)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of CGBD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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CGBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.80%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $10.81H $10.98L $10.78C $10.98VOL 461.3K
RES: $12.81SUP: $10.01SMA50: $10.98SMA200: $11.13
$12.63$11.90$11.17$10.44$9.71RES $12.81SUP $10.01$10.982026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CGBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ CGBD Butterfly Map β†’ + Track CGBD β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
0.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +44.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CGBD today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CGBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CGBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CGBD)

Financials Rank #936 of 1097 βš”οΈ BUR vs CGBD Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CGBD vs. BUR, CD, WRLD, LU)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) ranks #936 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #610 by equity capitalization ($741.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CGBD leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while WRLD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.8% ROIC and β€” gross margin. WRLD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with CGBD at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CGBD ACTIVE
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.
D- 38/100 10.6x β€” 6.0% +1.86% $741.7M Benchmark Subject
BUR
Burford Capital Limited
E 33/100 12.2x β€” 9.7% +10.29% $744.0M /bur-vs-cgbd β†’
CD
Chaince Digital Holdings Inc.
D- 38/100 β€” β€” -7.2% -14.14% $739.2M /cd-vs-cgbd β†’
WRLD
World Acceptance Corporation
D+ 55/100 23.7x β€” 9.8% +0.58% $767.0M /wrld-vs-cgbd β†’
LU
Lufax Holding Ltd (each representing twenty (20) )
D 44/100 β€” β€” β€” +0.97% $715.9M /lu-vs-cgbd β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001544206 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.17B (+44.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $808.9M , and +33.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $70.0M, operating cash flow of -$204.6M, and free cash flow of -$204.6M (-296.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, CGBD closed FY2025 with $2.79B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.17B $70.0M -$204.6M -$204.6M $2.79B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $808.9M $89.0M $104.3M $104.3M $1.93B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $876.3M $92.3M $230.6M $230.6M β€” β€”

3. CGBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CGBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (NASDAQ: CGBD) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $10.98 (+1.86% 1D, market cap $741.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CGBD ranks #936 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CGBD compare to BUR and CD in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CGBD carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, BUR (Burford Capital Limited) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $744.0M) and CD (Chaince Digital Holdings Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $739.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGBD leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while WRLD leads on capital efficiency (9.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGBD?

Per CGBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001544206), Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. generated $1.17B in revenue (+44.9% YoY), $70.0M in net income, and -$204.6M in free cash flow against $2.79B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CGBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CGBD last traded at $10.98 (+1.86% on volume of 501,618 shares), positioning the stock 0.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($10.98) and -1.35% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.13). Across its 52-week range of $9.94 to $13.28, CGBD sits at the 31.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±4.9% ($10.44 to $11.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: CGBD RQD Cockpit CGBD 12M Forecast CGBD Earnings & Move CGBD Dividends & DRIP CGBD Insiders & 13F CGBD Whale Options CGBD Profit Sankey CGBD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 38/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CGBD β€” Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $10.98 (+1.86% 1D, market capitalization $741.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.0%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of β€”.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, within the Finance: Consumer Services industry,. The profile identifies it as having a market capitalization of $0.7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) reported $1.17B in annual revenue (up from $808.9M in FY2024, +44.9% YoY) and $70.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($876.3M revenue, $92.3M net income) through FY2025, CGBD scaled operating cash flow to -$204.6M and free cash flow to -$204.6M, backed by $2.79B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 38/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of β€” and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.94 – $13.28 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 10.6x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Finance: Consumer Services (Financials), CGBD carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of β€”.

  • Key Question #1: Can CGBD sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 6.0% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.17B and free cash flow of -$204.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CGBD's 9.9x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CGBD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to CGBD Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CGBD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $10.98?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CGBD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CGBD:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Options Flow Specialist πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.94 (+20.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Low forward P/E of 9.9 and a Zacks Strong-Buy upgrade offer a cheap-valuation case with positive analyst momentum.

Long CGBD at $10.78 targeting $12.94. Low forward P/E of 9.9 and a Zacks Strong-Buy upgrade offer a cheap-valuation case with positive analyst momentum.. Institutional whale score is 8/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $9.94 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” CGBD's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.30 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $10.78

A Piotroski F-Score of 1 out of 9 and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$204.6M point to weak cash generation and fundamental quality.

I respect the product at Carlyle Secured Lending Inc., but the stock at $10.78 is a different story. A Piotroski F-Score of 1 out of 9 and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$204.6M point to weak cash generation and fundamental quality.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 38/100 (D-) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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