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Why CNOB Stock surged +2.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$32.87 +2.37% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.95

ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.65B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CNOB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: CNOB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $32.87 (+2.37% 1D, market cap $1.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CNOB ranks #209 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CNOB compare to BFC and LOB in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CNOB carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.1%. By comparison, BFC (Bank First Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 23.4x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $1.67B) and LOB (Live Oak Bancshares Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, QCRH leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while QCRH leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CNOB?
▼

Per CNOB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000712771), ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. generated $5.88B in revenue (+41.7% YoY), $80.4M in net income, and $101.0M in free cash flow against $14.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.95 (+0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 1.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510066
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$40 Bull$34 Base$27 Bear
📬 FREE CNOB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CNOB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CNOB SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.7% FCF Margin ($101.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (61.4) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$29.87+3.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$30.88+5.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$32.57+0.9% Next Q
Current
66
Grade C+$32.87+1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CNOB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, CNOB faces multiple-compression risk if 22.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($31.33) or 200D SMA ($30.14) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($34.05) toward Bear Floor ($26.56).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CNOB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CNOB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why CNOB Stock surged +2.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) surged +2.37% to $32.87, trading at 88% of its 52-week range ($23.2 – $34.14). Solid steady margins (5% return on capital), mixed timing at 22x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 88% of its 52-week range ($23.2 – $34.14) with RSI-14 at 61.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.2% around $32.87 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $101.0M annual free cash flow.
Live CNOB Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CNOB Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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CNOB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.28%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $32.11H $32.87L $32.11C $32.87VOL 657.0K
RES: $33.63SUP: $28.71SMA50: $31.33SMA200: $30.14
$34.71$32.35$29.99$27.63$25.27RES $33.63SUP $28.71$32.872026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CNOB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CNOB Butterfly Map → + Track CNOB →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
15.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +41.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CNOB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CNOB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CNOB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CNOB)

Financials Rank #209 of 1097 ⚔️ BFC vs CNOB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CNOB vs. BFC, LOB, QCRH, NBHC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) ranks #209 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #463 by equity capitalization ($1.65B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, QCRH leads on earnings valuation at 13.2x trailing P/E, while QCRH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. CNOB currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CNOB ACTIVE
ConnectOne Bancorp Inc.
C+ 66/100 22.0x — 5.1% +2.37% $1.65B Benchmark Subject
BFC
Bank First Corporation
D+ 58/100 23.4x — 11.1% +1.29% $1.67B /bfc-vs-cnob →
LOB
Live Oak Bancshares Inc.
D+ 54/100 15.3x — 8.5% +1.74% $1.62B /lob-vs-cnob →
QCRH
QCR Holdings Inc.
C 64/100 13.2x — 11.4% +2.03% $1.69B /qcrh-vs-cnob →
NBHC
National Bank Holdings Corporation
D+ 55/100 15.3x — 7.9% +1.68% $1.70B /nbhc-vs-cnob →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000712771 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) reported GAAP revenue of $5.88B (+41.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.15B , and +1402.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $80.4M, operating cash flow of $106.4M, and free cash flow of $101.0M (+77.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, CNOB closed FY2025 with $14.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.88B $80.4M $106.4M $101.0M $14.00B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.15B $73.8M $60.7M $56.9M $9.88B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $391.5M $87.0M $92.9M $92.9M — —

3. CNOB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CNOB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: CNOB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $32.87 (+2.37% 1D, market cap $1.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CNOB ranks #209 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CNOB compare to BFC and LOB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CNOB carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.1%. By comparison, BFC (Bank First Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 23.4x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $1.67B) and LOB (Live Oak Bancshares Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, QCRH leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while QCRH leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CNOB?

Per CNOB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000712771), ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. generated $5.88B in revenue (+41.7% YoY), $80.4M in net income, and $101.0M in free cash flow against $14.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CNOB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CNOB last traded at $32.87 (+2.37% on volume of 657,035 shares), positioning the stock +4.92% above its 50-day simple moving average ($31.33) and +9.06% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.14). Across its 52-week range of $23.20 to $34.14, CNOB sits at the 88.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.2% ($31.16 to $34.58).

Direct Sub-Reports: CNOB RQD Cockpit CNOB 12M Forecast CNOB Earnings & Move CNOB Dividends & DRIP CNOB Insiders & 13F CNOB Whale Options CNOB Profit Sankey CNOB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 66/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CNOB — ConnectOne Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 66/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $32.87 (+2.37% 1D, market capitalization $1.65B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 5.70%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Major Banks industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $1.74B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.1% (free cash flow yield of 5.7%). Within the Major Banks peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) reported $5.88B in annual revenue (up from $4.15B in FY2024, +41.7% YoY) and $80.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($391.5M revenue, $87.0M net income) through FY2025, CNOB scaled operating cash flow to $106.4M and free cash flow to $101.0M, backed by $14.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 66/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 5.70% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $23.20 – $34.14 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 22.0x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided material. The only sector-level context available is the Financials / Major Banks classification and the beta of 1.0.

  • Key Question #1: Can CNOB sustain or expand its — operating margin and 5.1% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.88B and free cash flow of $101.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CNOB's 20.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CNOB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CNOB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CNOB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $32.87?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CNOB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CNOB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $38.21 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction pillar scores highest at 15 of 20, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 20.5 with a 5.7% FCF yield.

Don't sleep on CNOB's setup in Financials. Insider conviction pillar scores highest at 15 of 20, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 20.5 with a 5.7% FCF yield.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (66/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 22.0x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $26.01 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $32.11

CRE exposure and a loan sale charge weigh on the outlook, with Piotroski F-Score of 5 of 9 and ROIC of 5.1%.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short CNOB above $32.11. CRE exposure and a loan sale charge weigh on the outlook, with Piotroski F-Score of 5 of 9 and ROIC of 5.1%.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20) and FCF yield (5.7%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $34.14.

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