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Stock Ratings / Health Care / COGT / news
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Why COGT Stock dropped -4.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$29.73 -4.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.45

Cogent Biosciences Inc. (COGT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.38B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is COGT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Cogent Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: COGT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $29.73 (-4.16% 1D, market cap $5.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, COGT ranks #419 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does COGT compare to MIRM and GRFS in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), COGT carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MIRM (Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.9%, cap $5.52B) and GRFS (Grifols S.A.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PTCT leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while PTCT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COGT?
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Per COGT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001622229), Cogent Biosciences Inc. generated $933.4M in revenue (+20.8% YoY), -$328.9M in net income, and -$266.0M in free cash flow against $937.6M in total assets and $135.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.45 (-0.94%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510042
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (9)SEC (14)Macro (5)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
$46 Bull$28 Base$22 Bear
📬 FREE COGT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for COGT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY COGT SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 10.84 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.3% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.2) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
34
Grade E$28.15+11.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
37
Grade E$31.43+2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$32.23-7.8% Next Q
Current
42
Grade D-$29.73-7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (34) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a COGT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While COGT currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($32.13) and Max Pain ($31.22) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $45.92.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $COGT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “COGT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why COGT Stock dropped -4.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Cogent Biosciences Inc. (COGT) dropped -4.16% to $29.73, trading at 53% of its 52-week range ($13.78 – $43.73). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 53% of its 52-week range ($13.78 – $43.73) with RSI-14 at 47.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.3% around $29.73 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 0% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live COGT Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring COGT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of COGT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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COGT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.06%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $31.96H $31.96L $29.73C $29.73VOL 2.50M
RES: $49.66SUP: $25.59SMA50: $32.13SMA200: $35.59
$44.49$39.92$35.35$30.78$26.21RES $49.66SUP $25.59$29.732026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

COGT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 COGT Butterfly Map → + Track COGT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
15.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on COGT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for COGT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for COGT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (COGT)

Health Care Rank #419 of 1015 ⚔️ MIRM vs COGT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (COGT vs. MIRM, GRFS, ERAS, PTCT)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Cogent Biosciences Inc. (COGT) ranks #419 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #152 by equity capitalization ($5.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PTCT leads on earnings valuation at 7.9x trailing P/E, while PTCT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. PTCT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with COGT at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
COGT ACTIVE
Cogent Biosciences Inc.
D- 42/100 — — -35.0% -4.16% $5.38B Benchmark Subject
MIRM
Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 51/100 — — -3.9% +0.87% $5.52B /mirm-vs-cogt →
GRFS
Grifols S.A.
D+ 54/100 — — — +5.06% $5.57B /grfs-vs-cogt →
ERAS
Erasca Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -2.09% $5.02B /eras-vs-cogt →
PTCT
PTC Therapeutics Inc.
C 63/100 7.9x — 85.0% +1.52% $5.01B /ptct-vs-cogt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001622229 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Cogent Biosciences Inc. (COGT) reported GAAP revenue of $933.4M (+20.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $772.6M , and +60.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$328.9M, operating cash flow of -$264.4M, and free cash flow of -$266.0M (-27.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, COGT closed FY2025 with $937.6M in total assets against $135.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.84, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $933.4M -$328.9M -$264.4M -$266.0M $937.6M $135.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $772.6M -$255.9M -$207.8M -$208.4M $327.9M $0
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $582.8M -$192.4M -$153.6M -$153.6M $3.05B $713.8M

3. COGT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is COGT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Cogent Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: COGT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $29.73 (-4.16% 1D, market cap $5.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, COGT ranks #419 in composite RQD confidence.

How does COGT compare to MIRM and GRFS in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), COGT carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MIRM (Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.9%, cap $5.52B) and GRFS (Grifols S.A.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PTCT leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while PTCT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COGT?

Per COGT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001622229), Cogent Biosciences Inc. generated $933.4M in revenue (+20.8% YoY), -$328.9M in net income, and -$266.0M in free cash flow against $937.6M in total assets and $135.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is COGT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

COGT last traded at $29.73 (-4.16% on volume of 1,998,140 shares), positioning the stock -7.47% below its 50-day simple moving average ($32.13) and -16.47% below its 200-day simple moving average ($35.59). Across its 52-week range of $13.78 to $43.73, COGT sits at the 53.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($27.26 to $32.20).

Direct Sub-Reports: COGT RQD Cockpit COGT 12M Forecast COGT Earnings & Move COGT Dividends & DRIP COGT Insiders & 13F COGT Whale Options COGT Profit Sankey COGT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 42/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

COGT — Cogent Biosciences Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Cogent Biosciences Inc. (COGT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 42/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $29.73 (-4.16% 1D, market capitalization $5.38B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -21.5%, and free cash flow yield of -4.80%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 10.84, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.20x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Cogent Biosciences Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. It carries a market capitalization of $5.5B. — for specific products, customers, or monetization model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Cogent Biosciences Inc. (COGT) reported $933.4M in annual revenue (up from $772.6M in FY2024, +20.8% YoY) and -$328.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($582.8M revenue, -$192.4M net income) through FY2025, COGT scaled operating cash flow to -$264.4M and free cash flow to -$266.0M, backed by $937.6M in total assets against $135.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 42/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -4.80% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $13.78 – $43.73 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -21.5% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations beyond the stated Health Care and Biotechnology classification: — The second-order concern visible in the data is the dependence of the balance sheet on the cash position of $312.0M against an operating loss of -$333.4M in FY 2025, meaning sustained losses at the reported pace would be a bottleneck to watch.

  • Key Question #1: Can COGT sustain or expand its -21.5% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $933.4M and free cash flow of -$266.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $135.6M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is COGT's 22.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

COGT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Cogent Biosciences Inc. (COGT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to COGT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

COGT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.73?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON COGT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on COGT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $36.60 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet scores 14 of 20 with an Altman Z-Score of 10.84 and Debt/Equity of 0.2, indicating low near-term solvency ri

Here is why I am bullish on COGT here at $31.02: The forensic balance sheet scores 14 of 20 with an Altman Z-Score of 10.84 and Debt/Equity of 0.2, indicating low near-term solvency risk.. Compare COGT's -21.5% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $29.47 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 42/100 quality, though with 1.05 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $31.02 and keeping dry powder in case we test $28.85.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.27 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $31.02

Operating income of -$333.4M in FY 2025 against ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -4.8% shows the business is consuming capital with no rep

Careful chasing COGT at $31.02. Operating income of -$333.4M in FY 2025 against ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -4.8% shows the business is consuming capital with no reported revenue.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -21.5%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $23.27 on multiple compression.

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