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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CPAY / options
FISV (60) GPN (69) TCOM (56) BR (77) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Corpay Inc. (CPAY) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$400.94 +0.75% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $400.72

Corpay Inc. (CPAY) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) β†’
ROARABLE C+ β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $26.33B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CPAY Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CPAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Corpay Inc. (NYSE: CPAY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $400.94 (+0.75% 1D, market cap $26.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CPAY ranks #210 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CPAY compare to FISV and GPN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), CPAY carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 23.2%. By comparison, FISV (Fiserv Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 7.4x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $26.60B) and GPN (Global Payments Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $25.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCOM leads on earnings multiple (5.1x) while CPAY leads on capital efficiency (23.2% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CPAY?
β–Ό

Per CPAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001175454), Corpay Inc. generated $4.53B in revenue (+13.9% YoY), $1.07B in net income, and $1.30B in free cash flow against $26.41B in total assets and $6.18B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $400.74 (-0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 28.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 56.0% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C+
025507510066
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B Β· Rk D+
Cash (14)Whales (13)SEC (11)Macro (11)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$490 Bull$415 Base$324 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE CPAY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CPAY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±4.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY CPAY SCORES 66/100 (C+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 28.7% FCF Margin ($1.30B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (50.2) create a -9 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$393.02+3.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$407.56-2.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$395.86+1.3% Next Q
Current
66
Grade C+$400.94+1.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (58) β†’ C+ (66)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CPAY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, CPAY faces multiple-compression risk if 24.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($402.34) or 200D SMA ($356.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($415.37) toward Bear Floor ($323.99).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CPAYβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œCPAY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±4.3%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CPAY)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CPAY.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating CPAY & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on CPAY
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CPAY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.99%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $398.0H $400.9L $398.0C $400.9VOL 406.8K
RES: $413.3SUP: $394.1SMA50: $402.3SMA200: $356.7
$436.5$399.1$361.7$324.3$286.8RES $413.3SUP $394.1$400.92026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CPAY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ CPAY Butterfly Map β†’ + Track CPAY β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
18.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CPAY today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CPAY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CPAY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CPAY)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #210 of 1011 βš”οΈ FISV vs CPAY Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CPAY vs. FISV, GPN, TCOM, BR)

Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Corpay Inc. (CPAY) ranks #210 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #77 by equity capitalization ($26.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCOM leads on earnings valuation at 5.1x trailing P/E, while CPAY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.2% ROIC and β€” gross margin. BR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with CPAY at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CPAY ACTIVE
Corpay Inc.
C+ 66/100 24.4x β€” 23.2% +0.75% $26.33B Benchmark Subject
FISV
Fiserv Inc.
C- 60/100 7.4x β€” 9.6% +3.18% $26.60B /fisv-vs-cpay β†’
GPN
Global Payments Inc.
C+ 69/100 16.2x 72.6% 5.1% +12.97% $25.63B /gpn-vs-cpay β†’
TCOM
Trip.com Group Limited
D+ 56/100 5.1x 80.6% 8.8% +2.67% $24.93B /tcom-vs-cpay β†’
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc.
B+ 77/100 24.0x 31.0% 18.1% +0.38% $20.19B /br-vs-cpay β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001175454

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Corpay Inc. (CPAY) reported GAAP revenue of $4.53B (+13.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.97B , and +20.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.07B, operating cash flow of $1.50B, and free cash flow of $1.30B (-26.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, CPAY closed FY2025 with $26.41B in total assets against $6.18B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.19, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.53B $1.07B $1.50B $1.30B $26.41B $6.18B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.97B $1.00B $1.94B $1.77B $17.96B $4.20B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.76B $982.0M $2.10B $1.93B $14.37B $3.36B

3. CPAY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CPAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Corpay Inc. (NYSE: CPAY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $400.94 (+0.75% 1D, market cap $26.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CPAY ranks #210 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CPAY compare to FISV and GPN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), CPAY carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 23.2%. By comparison, FISV (Fiserv Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 7.4x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $26.60B) and GPN (Global Payments Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $25.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCOM leads on earnings multiple (5.1x) while CPAY leads on capital efficiency (23.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CPAY?

Per CPAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001175454), Corpay Inc. generated $4.53B in revenue (+13.9% YoY), $1.07B in net income, and $1.30B in free cash flow against $26.41B in total assets and $6.18B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CPAY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CPAY last traded at $400.94 (+0.75% on volume of 406,782 shares), positioning the stock -0.35% below its 50-day simple moving average ($402.34) and +12.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($356.65). Across its 52-week range of $256.38 to $427.46, CPAY sits at the 84.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±4.3% ($383.70 to $418.18).

CPAY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is CPAY's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for CPAY.

Direct Sub-Reports: CPAY RQD Cockpit CPAY 12M Forecast CPAY Earnings & Move CPAY Dividends & DRIP CPAY Insiders & 13F CPAY Whale Options CPAY Profit Sankey CPAY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 66/100 (C+) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CPAY β€” Corpay Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:12:50Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CPAY scores 65 out of 100, a letter grade of C, with the verdict "Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14 / 20): Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 23.2% and an FCF yield of 4.97%. Strong capital returns are offset by a yield that is not especially high relative to the current price.
  • Whale 13F Flow (13 / 20): Per the RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score is moderate, indicating neither a strong institutional tailwind nor a clear distribution signal in the source data.
  • Insider Conviction (17 / 20): Per the RQD rating, this is the highest-scoring pillar, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. It is the strongest individual input to the overall grade.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10 / 20): Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects a beta of 1.11 and sector sensitivity. A beta above 1.0 means the stock has tended to move somewhat more than the broader market, which amplifies both upside and drawdown exposure.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (11 / 20): Per the RQD rating, this pillar draws on an Altman Z-Score of 2.19, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.37. The Piotroski reading is solid; the leverage level and Altman reading keep this pillar below the midpoint.

Taken together, the pillar profile suggests a company with strong operating economics and encouraging insider activity, offset by moderate leverage and a beta above market. For a prospective investor, the implications are: upside is linked to continued cash generation and insider signals; valuation is a tradeoff, since the trailing P/E of 24.4 sits above the forward P/E of 20.5, implying expected earnings growth per the market data; and balance sheet leverage and market sensitivity are the main sources of downside risk. The "Hold" verdict reflects this balance rather than a directional call.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
397.97$26.13B24.420.513.416.30%1.11$256.17 - $427.4623.2%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$4528.4M$1994.1M$1070.0MN/A$1299.1M$2408.1M$6179.5M
FY 2024$3974.6M$1787.2M$1004.0MN/A$1765.4M$1553.6M$4201.9M
FY 2023$3757.7M$1656.9M$982.0MN/A$1932.0MN/A$3363.0M

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $3757.7M in FY 2023 to $4528.4M in FY 2025, while net income rose from $982.0M to $1070.0M over the same span. Reported net margin is 23.6% and operating margin is 44%, per the market data. Per the market data, ROIC is 23.2%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.19 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9. Debt rose from $3363.0M in FY 2023 to $6179.5M in FY 2025, and Debt/Equity is 1.37 per the RQD rating; FY 2025 FCF was $1299.1M, below FY 2024's $1765.4M.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue mix behind the reported Business Services classification?
  • What is the FY 2025 EPS figure, which is listed as N/A across all reported periods?
  • What is the composition of the rise in debt from $3363.0M to $6179.5M, and how does it relate to the decline in FCF from FY 2024 to FY 2025?
  • What are the terms and financial scale of the Newcastle partnership referenced in the news wire?
  • What do the individual SEC Form 4 and 13F filings contain, and what is the analyst consensus price target?

CPAY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Corpay Inc. (CPAY) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to CPAY Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CPAY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $400.94?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CPAY 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CPAY:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $429.81 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CPAY (C β€’ RQD 65/100) a Buy at $397.97?

Welcome to the CPAY (Corpay Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 65/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Business Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (23.2% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $306.44 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $397.97

Pump the brakes on CPAY β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CPAY, but look at what you are paying: 24.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Corpay Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $501.44 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $397.97

CPAY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CPAY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Business Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $397.97 (52-wk range $256.17 - $427.46), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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