Why CRCL Stock dropped -9.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$72.54 -9.31% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.19

Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $20.31B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CRCL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $72.54 (-9.31% 1D, market cap $20.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CRCL ranks #735 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CRCL compare to EFX and SOFI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CRCL carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, EFX (Equifax Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 31.8x, ROIC 10.2%, cap $20.99B) and SOFI (SoFi Technologies Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E 47.3x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $22.74B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SYF leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while EFX leads on capital efficiency (10.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRCL?
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Per CRCL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001876042), Circle Internet Group Inc. generated $109.8M in revenue (+624.0% YoY), -$69.5M in net income, and $529.7M in free cash flow against $78.71B in total assets and $33.92B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.18 (-1.87%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 482.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510047
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-
Cash (12)Whales (9)SEC (11)Macro (6)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target
$147 Bull$69 Base$54 Bear
📬 FREE CRCL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CRCL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CRCL SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 482.3% FCF Margin ($529.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (46.7) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$84.27+1.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$85.87-5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$81.58-11.1% Next Q
Current
47
Grade D$72.54-5.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CRCL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CRCL currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($86.95) and Max Pain ($76.17) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $147.00.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CRCL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CRCL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why CRCL Stock dropped -9.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) dropped -9.31% to $72.54, trading at 25% of its 52-week range ($49.9 – $140). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 25% of its 52-week range ($49.9 – $140) with RSI-14 at 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.8% around $72.54 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $529.7M annual free cash flow.
Live CRCL Headlines & Catalysts
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CRCL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CRCL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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CRCL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -39.31%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $81.71H $81.71L $72.54C $72.54VOL 6.93M
RES: $89.14SUP: $71.42SMA50: $86.95SMA200: $86.09
$145.8$121.9$98.10$74.27$50.45RES $89.14SUP $71.42$72.542026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CRCL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
26.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CRCL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CRCL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CRCL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CRCL)

Financials Rank #735 of 1096 ⚔️ EFX vs CRCL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CRCL vs. EFX, SOFI, SYF, AFRM)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) ranks #735 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #117 by equity capitalization ($20.31B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SYF leads on earnings valuation at 6.7x trailing P/E, while EFX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.2% ROIC and — gross margin. SYF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with CRCL at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CRCL ACTIVE
Circle Internet Group Inc.
D 47/100 — — -0.2% -9.31% $20.31B Benchmark Subject
EFX
Equifax Inc.
B- 70/100 31.8x — 10.2% +2.90% $20.99B /efx-vs-crcl →
SOFI
SoFi Technologies Inc.
E 33/100 47.3x — 2.1% -4.83% $22.74B /sofi-vs-crcl →
SYF
Synchrony Financial
B 72/100 6.7x — 7.6% -2.10% $23.97B /syf-vs-crcl →
AFRM
Affirm Holdings Inc.
C- 60/100 — — -1.2% -1.83% $25.36B /afrm-vs-crcl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001876042

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) reported GAAP revenue of $109.8M (+624.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $15.2M , and +453.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$69.5M, operating cash flow of $542.1M, and free cash flow of $529.7M (+62.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, CRCL closed FY2025 with $78.71B in total assets against $33.92B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $109.8M -$69.5M $542.1M $529.7M $78.71B $33.92B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $15.2M $155.7M $344.6M $326.4M $45.83B $19.86B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $19.9M $267.6M $139.6M $138.7M $11.17B $2.61B

3. CRCL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CRCL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $72.54 (-9.31% 1D, market cap $20.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CRCL ranks #735 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CRCL compare to EFX and SOFI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CRCL carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, EFX (Equifax Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 31.8x, ROIC 10.2%, cap $20.99B) and SOFI (SoFi Technologies Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E 47.3x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $22.74B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SYF leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while EFX leads on capital efficiency (10.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRCL?

Per CRCL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001876042), Circle Internet Group Inc. generated $109.8M in revenue (+624.0% YoY), -$69.5M in net income, and $529.7M in free cash flow against $78.71B in total assets and $33.92B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CRCL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CRCL last traded at $72.54 (-9.31% on volume of 16,273,354 shares), positioning the stock -16.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($86.95) and -15.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($86.09). Across its 52-week range of $49.90 to $140.00, CRCL sits at the 25.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($63.98 to $81.10).

CRCL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is CRCL stock moving today?

Why CRCL Stock dropped -9.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 47/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CRCL — Circle Internet Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:13:39Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CRCL scores 47 out of 100, a D grade labeled "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC -0.2%; FCF yield 2.61%), Whale 13F Flow at 9/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 9/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 6/20 (Beta 1.1; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). Taken together, the lowest-scoring pillar is Macro Regime Fit, and the highest-scoring pillar is Fundamental Cash Engine, though both sit well below half of their maximums. For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to weak return on invested capital and negative reported margins as the main drag, partly offset by a positive free cash flow yield and a moderate forensic balance sheet profile. The rating's own label flags distribution risk, and the institutional and insider pillars each sit at 9/20, indicating limited supportive positioning in the data. Upside drivers implied by the data are a return to positive operating margins and a rise in the fundamental score; valuation tradeoffs include a forward P/E of 34 against negative trailing EPS of -0.27.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$109.8M$-96.4M$-69.5MN/A$529.7M$1526.0M$33922.1M
FY 2024$15.2M$167.2M$155.7MN/A$326.4M$751.0M$19855.9M
FY 2023$19.9M$269.5M$267.6MN/A$138.7MN/A$2613.6M

Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 shows an operating loss of $-96.4M and a net loss of $-69.5M after prior-year profits, while revenue rose to $109.8M from $15.2M. Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is -60%, net margin is -60%, and ROIC is -0.2%. The Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 are cited within the Roarable RQD rating; Debt/Equity of 0.5 is also cited there. Reported debt rose from $2613.6M in FY 2023 to $33922.1M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items reference CRCL. Headlines include a Yahoo Finance piece on earnings estimates (flagged GREEN, CATALYST), a Seeking Alpha piece on revenue growth expectations (GREEN, CATALYST), an Investing.com item on a Tiger Securities price target raise tied to crypto outlook (GREEN, CATALYST), and a 24/7 Wall St. item reporting a 7% share spike after backing OKX at a $25B valuation (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE). A Benzinga item on a Wednesday surge (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE) and a Yahoo! Finance Canada quote page (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE) round out the feed. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain dependency and no proprietary signals, so no graph-derived catalysts are available.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's products, customers, and primary revenue sources, given that the profile and business description are limited to sector labels?
  • Why does reported debt grow from $2613.6M to $33922.1M while reported EPS is N/A across all periods?
  • What explains the gap between FY 2024 net income of $155.7M on $15.2M revenue and the FY 2025 loss?
  • How is the 0% gross margin reported alongside a positive FCF in FY 2025 of $529.7M?
  • What is the consensus analyst rating and price target, given that the analyst data field is empty?

CRCL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CRCL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CRCL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $72.54?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CRCL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CRCL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $86.39 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CRCL (D • RQD 47/100) a Buy at $79.99?

Welcome to the CRCL (Circle Internet Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 47/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Finance: Consumer Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $59.99 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $79.99

Pump the brakes on CRCL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CRCL, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Circle Internet Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $102.39 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $79.99

CRCL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CRCL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Finance: Consumer Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $79.99 (52-wk range $49.90 - $140.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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