Yahoo Finance report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why CRCL Stock dropped -9.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is CRCL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $72.54 (-9.31% 1D, market cap $20.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CRCL ranks #735 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does CRCL compare to EFX and SOFI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CRCL carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, EFX (Equifax Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 31.8x, ROIC 10.2%, cap $20.99B) and SOFI (SoFi Technologies Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E 47.3x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $22.74B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SYF leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while EFX leads on capital efficiency (10.2% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRCL?
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Per CRCL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001876042), Circle Internet Group Inc. generated $109.8M in revenue (+624.0% YoY), -$69.5M in net income, and $529.7M in free cash flow against $78.71B in total assets and $33.92B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 482.3% FCF Margin ($529.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (46.7) create a -14 pt regime headwind
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CRCL Turnaround Squeeze
While CRCL currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($86.95) and Max Pain ($76.17) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $147.00.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Why CRCL Stock dropped -9.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) dropped -9.31% to $72.54, trading at 25% of its 52-week range ($49.9 – $140). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 25% of its 52-week range ($49.9 – $140) with RSI-14 at 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.8% around $72.54 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $529.7M annual free cash flow.
Seeking Alpha report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Prediction markets favor Democrats, raising crypto regulatory risk for Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood. Click for an updated market outlook.
Cryptocurrency bettors anticipate that Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE:CRCL) will beat analyst expectations when it releases its quarterly earnings before the opening bell on Wednesday. Will it Be a Double Beat? Polygon
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CRCL)
- ✓Walkthrough of CRCL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
CRCL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CRCL today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CRCL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CRCL)
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CRCL vs. EFX, SOFI, SYF, AFRM)
Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) ranks #735 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #117 by equity capitalization ($20.31B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SYF leads on earnings valuation at 6.7x trailing P/E, while EFX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.2% ROIC and — gross margin. SYF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with CRCL at 47/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRCL
ACTIVE
Circle Internet Group Inc. | D | 47/100 | — | — | -0.2% | -9.31% | $20.31B | Benchmark Subject |
| EFX Equifax Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 31.8x | — | 10.2% | +2.90% | $20.99B | /efx-vs-crcl → |
| SOFI SoFi Technologies Inc. | E | 33/100 | 47.3x | — | 2.1% | -4.83% | $22.74B | /sofi-vs-crcl → |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | B | 72/100 | 6.7x | — | 7.6% | -2.10% | $23.97B | /syf-vs-crcl → |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc. | C- | 60/100 | — | — | -1.2% | -1.83% | $25.36B | /afrm-vs-crcl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001876042In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) reported GAAP revenue of $109.8M (+624.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $15.2M , and +453.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$69.5M, operating cash flow of $542.1M, and free cash flow of $529.7M (+62.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, CRCL closed FY2025 with $78.71B in total assets against $33.92B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $109.8M | -$69.5M | $542.1M | $529.7M | $78.71B | $33.92B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $15.2M | $155.7M | $344.6M | $326.4M | $45.83B | $19.86B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $19.9M | $267.6M | $139.6M | $138.7M | $11.17B | $2.61B |
3. CRCL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CRCL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $72.54 (-9.31% 1D, market cap $20.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CRCL ranks #735 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CRCL compare to EFX and SOFI in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CRCL carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, EFX (Equifax Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 31.8x, ROIC 10.2%, cap $20.99B) and SOFI (SoFi Technologies Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E 47.3x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $22.74B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SYF leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while EFX leads on capital efficiency (10.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRCL?
Per CRCL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001876042), Circle Internet Group Inc. generated $109.8M in revenue (+624.0% YoY), -$69.5M in net income, and $529.7M in free cash flow against $78.71B in total assets and $33.92B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CRCL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CRCL last traded at $72.54 (-9.31% on volume of 16,273,354 shares), positioning the stock -16.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($86.95) and -15.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($86.09). Across its 52-week range of $49.90 to $140.00, CRCL sits at the 25.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($63.98 to $81.10).
CRCL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CRCL stock moving today?
Why CRCL Stock dropped -9.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
CRCL — Circle Internet Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, CRCL scores 47 out of 100, a D grade labeled "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC -0.2%; FCF yield 2.61%), Whale 13F Flow at 9/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 9/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 6/20 (Beta 1.1; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). Taken together, the lowest-scoring pillar is Macro Regime Fit, and the highest-scoring pillar is Fundamental Cash Engine, though both sit well below half of their maximums. For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to weak return on invested capital and negative reported margins as the main drag, partly offset by a positive free cash flow yield and a moderate forensic balance sheet profile. The rating's own label flags distribution risk, and the institutional and insider pillars each sit at 9/20, indicating limited supportive positioning in the data. Upside drivers implied by the data are a return to positive operating margins and a rise in the fundamental score; valuation tradeoffs include a forward P/E of 34 against negative trailing EPS of -0.27.
Financial Trend
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $109.8M | $-96.4M | $-69.5M | N/A | $529.7M | $1526.0M | $33922.1M |
| FY 2024 | $15.2M | $167.2M | $155.7M | N/A | $326.4M | $751.0M | $19855.9M |
| FY 2023 | $19.9M | $269.5M | $267.6M | N/A | $138.7M | N/A | $2613.6M |
Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 shows an operating loss of $-96.4M and a net loss of $-69.5M after prior-year profits, while revenue rose to $109.8M from $15.2M. Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is -60%, net margin is -60%, and ROIC is -0.2%. The Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 are cited within the Roarable RQD rating; Debt/Equity of 0.5 is also cited there. Reported debt rose from $2613.6M in FY 2023 to $33922.1M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials.
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
Per the recent news feed, six items reference CRCL. Headlines include a Yahoo Finance piece on earnings estimates (flagged GREEN, CATALYST), a Seeking Alpha piece on revenue growth expectations (GREEN, CATALYST), an Investing.com item on a Tiger Securities price target raise tied to crypto outlook (GREEN, CATALYST), and a 24/7 Wall St. item reporting a 7% share spike after backing OKX at a $25B valuation (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE). A Benzinga item on a Wednesday surge (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE) and a Yahoo! Finance Canada quote page (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE) round out the feed. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain dependency and no proprietary signals, so no graph-derived catalysts are available.
Open Questions
- What are the company's products, customers, and primary revenue sources, given that the profile and business description are limited to sector labels?
- Why does reported debt grow from $2613.6M to $33922.1M while reported EPS is N/A across all periods?
- What explains the gap between FY 2024 net income of $155.7M on $15.2M revenue and the FY 2025 loss?
- How is the 0% gross margin reported alongside a positive FCF in FY 2025 of $529.7M?
- What is the consensus analyst rating and price target, given that the analyst data field is empty?
CRCL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CRCL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $72.54?
🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CRCL (D • RQD 47/100) a Buy at $79.99?
Welcome to the CRCL (Circle Internet Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 47/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Finance: Consumer Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Pump the brakes on CRCL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CRCL, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Circle Internet Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
CRCL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CRCL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Finance: Consumer Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $79.99 (52-wk range $49.90 - $140.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.