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Stock Ratings / Communication Services / CRTO / forecast
MNTN (60) GRPN (46) IBTA (67) ANGI (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Criteo S.A. (CRTO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$14.97 +2.18% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.00

Criteo S.A. (CRTO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $717.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CRTO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CRTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ: CRTO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $14.97 (+2.18% 1D, market cap $717.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, CRTO ranks #54 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CRTO compare to MNTN and GRPN in the Communication Services sector?
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Within the Communication Services sector (Advertising), CRTO carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.9x, gross margin of 54.0%, and ROIC of 19.8%. By comparison, MNTN (MNTN Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 19.9%, cap $699.4M) and GRPN (Groupon Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 56.5%, cap $640.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRTO leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while GRPN leads on capital efficiency (56.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRTO?
▼

Per CRTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001576427), Criteo S.A. generated $1.94B in revenue (+0.6% YoY), $149.0M in net income, and $311.2M in free cash flow against $2.20B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.00 (+0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 16% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510052
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (14)Whales (3)SEC (14)Macro (7)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
$27 Bull$15 Base$11 Bear
📬 FREE CRTO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CRTO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CRTO SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 16% FCF Margin ($311.2M FCF) & 54% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.14 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$15.07+2.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$15.39-7.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
55
Grade C$14.17+5.6% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$14.97-1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CRTO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CRTO currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.04) and Max Pain ($15.72) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $26.55.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CRTO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CRTO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CRTO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $14.97: 668.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $11.36
$7,589
$-2,411 (-24.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $14.57
$9,733
$-267 (-2.7%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $26.55
$17,735
+$7,735 (+77.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CRTO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CRTO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CRTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.23%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $14.89H $14.97L $14.65C $14.97VOL 331.7K
RES: $14.80SUP: $12.20SMA50: $16.04SMA200: $18.04
$26.08$22.80$19.51$16.22$12.93RES $14.80SUP $12.20$14.972026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CRTO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CRTO Butterfly Map → + Track CRTO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-14.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CRTO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CRTO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CRTO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CRTO)

Communication Services Rank #54 of 132 ⚔️ MNTN vs CRTO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (CRTO vs. MNTN, GRPN, IBTA, ANGI)

Industry: Advertising (23 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Criteo S.A. (CRTO) ranks #54 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #70 by equity capitalization ($717.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRTO leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while GRPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 56.5% ROIC and 90.8% gross margin. IBTA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with CRTO at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CRTO ACTIVE
Criteo S.A.
D+ 52/100 4.9x 54.0% 19.8% +2.18% $717.8M Benchmark Subject
MNTN
MNTN Inc. (Class A)
C- 60/100 — 77.2% 19.9% +0.64% $699.4M /mntn-vs-crto →
GRPN
Groupon Inc.
D 46/100 — 90.8% 56.5% -1.08% $640.5M /grpn-vs-crto →
IBTA
Ibotta Inc. (Class A)
C+ 67/100 — 79.2% -0.7% +2.98% $1.13B /ibta-vs-crto →
ANGI
Angi Inc. (Class A)
D+ 52/100 5.6x 95.4% 4.6% -3.34% $242.9M /angi-vs-crto →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001576427 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Criteo S.A. (CRTO) reported GAAP revenue of $1.94B (+0.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.93B , and -0.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $149.0M, operating cash flow of $311.2M, and free cash flow of $311.2M (+20.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, CRTO closed FY2025 with $2.20B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.14, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.94B $149.0M $311.2M $311.2M $2.20B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.93B $115.0M $258.2M $258.2M $2.27B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.95B $55.0M $224.2M $224.2M — —

3. CRTO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CRTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ: CRTO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $14.97 (+2.18% 1D, market cap $717.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, CRTO ranks #54 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CRTO compare to MNTN and GRPN in the Communication Services sector?

Within the Communication Services sector (Advertising), CRTO carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.9x, gross margin of 54.0%, and ROIC of 19.8%. By comparison, MNTN (MNTN Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 19.9%, cap $699.4M) and GRPN (Groupon Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 56.5%, cap $640.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRTO leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while GRPN leads on capital efficiency (56.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRTO?

Per CRTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001576427), Criteo S.A. generated $1.94B in revenue (+0.6% YoY), $149.0M in net income, and $311.2M in free cash flow against $2.20B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CRTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CRTO last traded at $14.97 (+2.18% on volume of 510,195 shares), positioning the stock -6.67% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.04) and -17.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.04). Across its 52-week range of $13.95 to $25.29, CRTO sits at the 9.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($13.77 to $16.17).

Direct Sub-Reports: CRTO RQD Cockpit CRTO 12M Forecast CRTO Earnings & Move CRTO Dividends & DRIP CRTO Insiders & 13F CRTO Whale Options CRTO Profit Sankey CRTO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CRTO — Criteo S.A.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Criteo S.A. (CRTO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $14.97 (+2.18% 1D, market capitalization $717.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19.8%, gross margin of 54.0%, operating margin of 10.4%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.14, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Criteo S.A. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Communication Services sector and Advertising industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 54%, an operating margin of 10.4%, and a net margin of 7.7%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Criteo S.A. (CRTO) reported $1.94B in annual revenue (up from $1.93B in FY2024, +0.6% YoY) and $149.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.95B revenue, $55.0M net income) through FY2025, CRTO scaled operating cash flow to $311.2M and free cash flow to $311.2M, backed by $2.20B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 52/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $13.95 – $25.29 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 4.9x trailing P/E against 10.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Advertising (Communication Services), CRTO carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 54.0%.

  • Key Question #1: Can CRTO sustain or expand its 10.4% operating margin and 19.8% ROIC against Advertising peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.94B and free cash flow of $311.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CRTO's 4.6x forward P/E multiple to Communication Services capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CRTO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Criteo S.A. (CRTO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CRTO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CRTO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.97?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CRTO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CRTO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $17.29 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported ROIC of 19.8% alongside a reported premium buyout offer from Vista could support value realization.

Here is why I am bullish on CRTO here at $14.65: Reported ROIC of 19.8% alongside a reported premium buyout offer from Vista could support value realization.. Compare CRTO's 10.4% operating margin and 19.8% ROIC against the rest of Advertising. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $13.92 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $14.65 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Communication Services.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.13 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $14.65

A 4 out of 20 whale 13F flow score and 0% FCF yield indicate weak institutional support and cash generation.

A 4 out of 20 whale 13F flow score and 0% FCF yield indicate weak institutional support and cash generation.. Look at the math on CRTO: paying 4.9x trailing P/E for 19.8% ROIC and 10.4% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Advertising demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $12.89 before getting long.

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