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Why CSTL Stock dropped -5.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$34.94 -5.97% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.50

Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.14B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CSTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Castle Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $34.94 (-5.97% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CSTL ranks #151 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CSTL compare to LMRI and TRUP in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), CSTL carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.4%, and ROIC of -9.3%. By comparison, LMRI (Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.10B) and TRUP (Trupanion Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 68.2x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CSTL?
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Per CSTL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001447362), Castle Biosciences Inc. generated $344.2M in revenue (+3.7% YoY), -$24.2M in net income, and $28.3M in free cash flow against $578.6M in total assets and $9.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.50 (-1.26%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 8.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (15)SEC (14)Macro (13)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$46 Bull$36 Base$28 Bear
📬 FREE CSTL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CSTL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CSTL SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.1% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.97 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$32.88+0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$33.15+4.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$34.51+1.2% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$34.94+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CSTL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, CSTL faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 76.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($34.38) or 200D SMA ($28.50) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($35.57) toward Bear Floor ($27.74).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CSTL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CSTL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why CSTL Stock dropped -5.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) dropped -5.97% to $34.94, trading at 65% of its 52-week range ($17.72 – $44.28). Solid 79.4% gross margin (-9% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 65% of its 52-week range ($17.72 – $44.28) with RSI-14 at 58.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.1% around $34.94 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 79.4% gross margin and $28.3M annual free cash flow.
Live CSTL Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CSTL Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
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CSTL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +36.91%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $38.51H $38.51L $34.94C $34.94VOL 334.4K
RES: $39.91SUP: $32.42SMA50: $34.38SMA200: $28.50
$40.19$34.10$28.01$21.92$15.83RES $39.91SUP $32.42$34.942026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CSTL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CSTL Butterfly Map → + Track CSTL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CSTL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CSTL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CSTL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CSTL)

Health Care Rank #151 of 1015 ⚔️ LMRI vs CSTL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CSTL vs. LMRI, TRUP, FRNM, ALHC)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) ranks #151 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #340 by equity capitalization ($1.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRUP leads on earnings valuation at 68.2x trailing P/E, while ALHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.9% ROIC and — gross margin. TRUP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with CSTL at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CSTL ACTIVE
Castle Biosciences Inc.
C 62/100 — 79.4% -9.3% -5.97% $1.14B Benchmark Subject
LMRI
Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.
D+ 53/100 — — — -2.28% $1.10B /lmri-vs-cstl →
TRUP
Trupanion Inc.
C 63/100 68.2x 16.1% 3.1% +2.06% $1.32B /trup-vs-cstl →
FRNM
Freenome Inc.
E 31/100 — — -3.4% -6.97% $1.34B /frnm-vs-cstl →
ALHC
Alignment Healthcare Inc.
D+ 56/100 — — 13.9% -3.71% $1.52B /alhc-vs-cstl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001447362 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) reported GAAP revenue of $344.2M (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $332.1M , and +56.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$24.2M, operating cash flow of $64.3M, and free cash flow of $28.3M (-22.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, CSTL closed FY2025 with $578.6M in total assets against $9.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.97, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $344.2M -$24.2M $64.3M $28.3M $578.6M $9.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $332.1M $18.2M $64.9M $36.5M $531.2M $9.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $219.8M -$57.5M -$5.6M -$5.6M — —

3. CSTL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CSTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Castle Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $34.94 (-5.97% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CSTL ranks #151 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CSTL compare to LMRI and TRUP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), CSTL carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.4%, and ROIC of -9.3%. By comparison, LMRI (Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.10B) and TRUP (Trupanion Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 68.2x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CSTL?

Per CSTL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001447362), Castle Biosciences Inc. generated $344.2M in revenue (+3.7% YoY), -$24.2M in net income, and $28.3M in free cash flow against $578.6M in total assets and $9.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CSTL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CSTL last traded at $34.94 (-5.97% on volume of 470,369 shares), positioning the stock +1.63% above its 50-day simple moving average ($34.38) and +22.60% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.50). Across its 52-week range of $17.72 to $44.28, CSTL sits at the 64.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.1% ($31.41 to $38.47).

Direct Sub-Reports: CSTL RQD Cockpit CSTL 12M Forecast CSTL Earnings & Move CSTL Dividends & DRIP CSTL Insiders & 13F CSTL Whale Options CSTL Profit Sankey CSTL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CSTL — Castle Biosciences Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $34.94 (-5.97% 1D, market capitalization $1.14B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -9.3%, gross margin of 79.4%, operating margin of -12.4%, and free cash flow yield of 2.41%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.97, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.02x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector and Medical Specialities industry. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $344.2M and a gross margin of 79.4% per the market data section.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) reported $344.2M in annual revenue (up from $332.1M in FY2024, +3.7% YoY) and -$24.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($219.8M revenue, -$57.5M net income) through FY2025, CSTL scaled operating cash flow to $64.3M and free cash flow to $28.3M, backed by $578.6M in total assets against $9.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 62/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 2.41% and institutional whale pillar of 15/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $17.72 – $44.28 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -12.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations.

  • Key Question #1: Can CSTL sustain or expand its -12.4% operating margin and -9.3% ROIC against Medical Specialities peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $344.2M and free cash flow of $28.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $9.6M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CSTL's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CSTL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CSTL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CSTL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $34.94?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CSTL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CSTL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $43.85 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong balance sheet with Altman Z 6.97, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.02, alongside institutional accumulation in the 13F flow pi

Here is why I am bullish on CSTL here at $37.16: Strong balance sheet with Altman Z 6.97, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.02, alongside institutional accumulation in the 13F flow pillar.. Compare CSTL's -12.4% operating margin and -9.3% ROIC against the rest of Medical Specialities. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $35.30 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Shorting a 15/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $37.16 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $27.87 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $37.16

Operating margin of -12.4% and ROIC of -9.3%, with FY 2025 operating income of -$42.8M and recurring insider-selling headlines.

Careful chasing CSTL at $37.16. Operating margin of -12.4% and ROIC of -9.3%, with FY 2025 operating income of -$42.8M and recurring insider-selling headlines.. Gross margin is 79.4%, but operating margin is -12.4%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $27.87 on multiple compression.

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