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Carriage Services Inc. (CSV) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$34.95 +0.17% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.89

Carriage Services Inc. (CSV) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $554.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CSV Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CSV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Carriage Services Inc. (NYSE: CSV) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $34.95 (+0.17% 1D, market cap $554.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CSV ranks #421 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CSV compare to EVH and BLW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Consumer Services), CSV carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.9x, gross margin of 35.1%, and ROIC of 29.8%. By comparison, EVH (Evolent Health Inc (Class A)) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -26.3%, cap $486.2M) and BLW (Blackrock Limited Duration Income Trust) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $414.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, YELP leads on earnings multiple (7.1x) while CSV leads on capital efficiency (29.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CSV?
▼

Per CSV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001016281), Carriage Services Inc. generated $417.4M in revenue (+3.3% YoY), $51.5M in net income, and $40.1M in free cash flow against $1.35B in total assets and $5.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.89 (-0.16%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 9.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C- · Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (6)SEC (9)Macro (11)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$55 Bull$35 Base$27 Bear
📬 FREE CSV RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CSV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CSV SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.6% FCF Margin ($40.1M FCF) & 35.1% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$34.61+4.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$36.31-1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$35.82-2.4% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$34.95-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CSV Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, CSV faces multiple-compression risk if 10.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 32.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($33.61) or 200D SMA ($40.01) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($34.64) toward Bear Floor ($27.02).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CSV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CSV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CSV Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $34.95: 286.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $27.02
$7,731
$-2,269 (-22.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $34.64
$9,911
$-89 (-0.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $54.71
$15,654
+$5,654 (+56.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$3674%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$5169%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$3158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CSV)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CSV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
CSV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.05%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $35.44H $35.44L $34.89C $34.95VOL 174.8K
RES: $36.71SUP: $26.48SMA50: $33.61SMA200: $40.01
$50.35$44.87$39.38$33.89$28.41RES $36.71SUP $26.48$34.952026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CSV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CSV Butterfly Map → + Track CSV →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
0.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CSV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CSV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CSV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CSV)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #421 of 1009 ⚔️ EVH vs CSV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CSV vs. EVH, BLW, YELP, EVI)

Industry: Other Consumer Services (73 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Carriage Services Inc. (CSV) ranks #421 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #573 by equity capitalization ($554.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, YELP leads on earnings valuation at 7.1x trailing P/E, while CSV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.8% ROIC and 35.1% gross margin. YELP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with CSV at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CSV ACTIVE
Carriage Services Inc.
D+ 56/100 10.9x 35.1% 29.8% +0.17% $554.1M Benchmark Subject
EVH
Evolent Health Inc (Class A)
D- 43/100 — 21.3% -26.3% +3.49% $486.2M /evh-vs-csv →
BLW
Blackrock Limited Duration Income Trust
D- 43/100 — — — +0.17% $414.6M /blw-vs-csv →
YELP
Yelp Inc.
C- 60/100 7.1x — 29.5% +3.77% $1.04B /yelp-vs-csv →
EVI
EVI Industries Inc.
C- 59/100 37.3x 30.4% 5.4% +4.00% $273.7M /evi-vs-csv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001016281 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Carriage Services Inc. (CSV) reported GAAP revenue of $417.4M (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $404.2M , and +9.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $51.5M, operating cash flow of $60.7M, and free cash flow of $40.1M (+11.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, CSV closed FY2025 with $1.35B in total assets against $5.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.16, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $417.4M $51.5M $60.7M $40.1M $1.35B $5.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $404.2M $33.0M $52.0M $35.9M $1.28B $4.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $382.5M $33.4M $75.6M $75.6M — —

3. CSV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CSV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Carriage Services Inc. (NYSE: CSV) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $34.95 (+0.17% 1D, market cap $554.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CSV ranks #421 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CSV compare to EVH and BLW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Consumer Services), CSV carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.9x, gross margin of 35.1%, and ROIC of 29.8%. By comparison, EVH (Evolent Health Inc (Class A)) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -26.3%, cap $486.2M) and BLW (Blackrock Limited Duration Income Trust) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $414.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, YELP leads on earnings multiple (7.1x) while CSV leads on capital efficiency (29.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CSV?

Per CSV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001016281), Carriage Services Inc. generated $417.4M in revenue (+3.3% YoY), $51.5M in net income, and $40.1M in free cash flow against $1.35B in total assets and $5.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CSV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CSV last traded at $34.95 (+0.17% on volume of 207,441 shares), positioning the stock +3.99% above its 50-day simple moving average ($33.61) and -12.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($40.01). Across its 52-week range of $30.11 to $52.10, CSV sits at the 22.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($32.29 to $37.61).

Direct Sub-Reports: CSV RQD Cockpit CSV 12M Forecast CSV Earnings & Move CSV Dividends & DRIP CSV Insiders & 13F CSV Whale Options CSV Profit Sankey CSV News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CSV — Carriage Services Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Carriage Services Inc. (CSV) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $34.95 (+0.17% 1D, market capitalization $554.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 29.8%, gross margin of 35.1%, operating margin of 23.4%, and free cash flow yield of 7.12%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (9/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.16, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.02x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Carriage Services Inc. Is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Other Consumer Services industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 35.1%, an operating margin of 23.4%, and a net margin of 12.3%. — for product detail, customer segments, or the specific mechanics of how revenue is earned.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Carriage Services Inc. (CSV) reported $417.4M in annual revenue (up from $404.2M in FY2024, +3.3% YoY) and $51.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($382.5M revenue, $33.4M net income) through FY2025, CSV scaled operating cash flow to $60.7M and free cash flow to $40.1M, backed by $1.35B in total assets against $5.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.12% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $30.11 – $52.10 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 10.9x trailing P/E and 4.9x EV/EBITDA against 23.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. Sector correlation beyond the Consumer Discretionary classification and the Other Consumer Services industry label is — No 2nd-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can CSV sustain or expand its 23.4% operating margin and 29.8% ROIC against Other Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $417.4M and free cash flow of $40.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $5.6M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CSV's 10.1x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CSV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Carriage Services Inc. (CSV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CSV Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CSV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $34.95?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CSV 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CSV:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $44.66 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction pillar scores 18 of 20 and ROIC stands at 29.8% with a P/E of 10.9 TTM.

Picked up a starter position in CSV in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $34.89. Insider conviction pillar scores 18 of 20 and ROIC stands at 29.8% with a P/E of 10.9 TTM.. Trading inside a $30.11–$52.10 52-week range with 7.12% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Other Consumer Services multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — CSV's 9/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $27.21 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $34.89

Altman Z-Score of 1.16 and whale 13F flow scoring 9 of 20 leave the balance sheet and institutional support weak.

Careful chasing CSV at $34.89. Altman Z-Score of 1.16 and whale 13F flow scoring 9 of 20 leave the balance sheet and institutional support weak.. Gross margin is 35.1%, but operating margin is 23.4%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $27.21 on multiple compression.

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