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Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$70.03 +1.52% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $70.09

Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $1.25B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CTBI Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CTBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: CTBI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $70.03 (+1.52% 1D, market cap $1.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CTBI ranks #485 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CTBI compare to OSBC and MCB in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CTBI carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.0x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 11.5%. By comparison, OSBC (Old Second Bancorp Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 15.6x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $1.24B) and MCB (Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CTBI leads on earnings multiple (13.0x) while HBT leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTBI?
β–Ό

Per CTBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000350852), Community Trust Bancorp Inc. generated $2.81B in revenue (+7.9% YoY), $98.1M in net income, and $97.4M in free cash flow against $6.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $70.09 (+0.08%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) β€’ 3.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 52.2% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510057
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ Β· Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (9)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$84 Bull$70 Base$54 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE CTBI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY CTBI SCORES 57/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 5/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$74.08+1.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$75.30-7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$70.06+0% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$70.03-0.2% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C+ (65) β†’ D+ (57)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CTBI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, CTBI faces multiple-compression risk if 13.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($74.57) or 200D SMA ($69.09) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($69.71) toward Bear Floor ($54.37).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTBIβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œCTBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±5.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CTBI)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CTBI.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CTBI)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of CTBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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CTBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.67%πŸ“ WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-03O $70.10H $70.10L $68.98C $70.03VOL 140.9K
RES: $77.50SUP: $67.37SMA50: $74.57SMA200: $69.09
$81.43$75.16$68.89$62.62$56.35RES $77.50SUP $67.37$70.032026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CTBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ CTBI Butterfly Map β†’ + Track CTBI β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
4.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTBI today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTBI)

Financials Rank #485 of 1097 βš”οΈ OSBC vs CTBI Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CTBI vs. OSBC, MCB, HBT, AMTB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) ranks #485 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #515 by equity capitalization ($1.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CTBI leads on earnings valuation at 13.0x trailing P/E, while HBT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and β€” gross margin. HBT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with CTBI at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CTBI ACTIVE
Community Trust Bancorp Inc.
D+ 57/100 13.0x β€” 11.5% +1.52% $1.25B Benchmark Subject
OSBC
Old Second Bancorp Inc.
C 62/100 15.6x β€” 9.0% +3.17% $1.24B /osbc-vs-ctbi β†’
MCB
Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.
C+ 66/100 16.8x β€” 9.6% +2.30% $1.18B /mcb-vs-ctbi β†’
HBT
HBT Financial Inc.
C+ 69/100 17.4x β€” 12.5% +2.71% $1.33B /hbt-vs-ctbi β†’
AMTB
Amerant Bancorp Inc. (Class A)
C+ 66/100 22.4x β€” 5.6% +1.67% $1.17B /amtb-vs-ctbi β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000350852 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) reported GAAP revenue of $2.81B (+7.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.60B , and +699.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $98.1M, operating cash flow of $105.0M, and free cash flow of $97.4M (+0.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTBI closed FY2025 with $6.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.81B $98.1M $105.0M $97.4M $6.68B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.60B $82.8M $105.3M $97.2M $6.19B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $351.0M $78.0M $85.8M $85.8M β€” β€”

3. CTBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CTBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: CTBI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $70.03 (+1.52% 1D, market cap $1.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CTBI ranks #485 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CTBI compare to OSBC and MCB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CTBI carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.0x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 11.5%. By comparison, OSBC (Old Second Bancorp Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 15.6x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $1.24B) and MCB (Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CTBI leads on earnings multiple (13.0x) while HBT leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTBI?

Per CTBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000350852), Community Trust Bancorp Inc. generated $2.81B in revenue (+7.9% YoY), $98.1M in net income, and $97.4M in free cash flow against $6.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CTBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CTBI last traded at $70.03 (+1.52% on volume of 127,328 shares), positioning the stock -6.09% below its 50-day simple moving average ($74.57) and +1.36% above its 200-day simple moving average ($69.09). Across its 52-week range of $50.68 to $79.92, CTBI sits at the 66.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.5% ($66.18 to $73.88).

Direct Sub-Reports: CTBI RQD Cockpit CTBI 12M Forecast CTBI Earnings & Move CTBI Dividends & DRIP CTBI Insiders & 13F CTBI Whale Options CTBI Profit Sankey CTBI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 57/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CTBI β€” Community Trust Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $70.03 (+1.52% 1D, market capitalization $1.25B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.5%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 7.65%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry,. Market capitalization is $1.3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) reported $2.81B in annual revenue (up from $2.60B in FY2024, +7.9% YoY) and $98.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($351.0M revenue, $78.0M net income) through FY2025, CTBI scaled operating cash flow to $105.0M and free cash flow to $97.4M, backed by $6.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 57/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.65% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $50.68 – $79.92 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 13.0x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can CTBI sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 11.5% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.81B and free cash flow of $97.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CTBI's 12.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CTBI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to CTBI Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CTBI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $70.03?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CTBI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CTBI:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Swing & Catalyst Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $85.54 (+24.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Net income rose from $78.0M in FY 2023 to $98.1M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at 12.1x forward earnings with a 2.83% dividend yiel

Here is why I am bullish on CTBI here at $68.98: Net income rose from $78.0M in FY 2023 to $98.1M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at 12.1x forward earnings with a 2.83% dividend yield.. Compare CTBI's 0.0% operating margin and 11.5% ROIC against the rest of Major Banks. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $65.53 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 7/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $68.98 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $57.25 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $68.98

Q3 2026 EPS of $1.43 missed the $1.65 FactSet estimate and news reports cite a profit squeeze, with two RED risk-watch headlines.

I respect the product at Community Trust Bancorp Inc., but the stock at $68.98 is a different story. Q3 2026 EPS of $1.43 missed the $1.65 FactSet estimate and news reports cite a profit squeeze, with two RED risk-watch headlines.. FCF yield is 7.65% and RQD sits at 57/100 (D+) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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