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Why CTO Stock slipped -0.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$19.98 -0.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.92

CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $778.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, CTO Realty Growth Inc. (NYSE: CTO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $19.98 (-0.55% 1D, market cap $778.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CTO ranks #652 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CTO compare to INN and SVC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), CTO carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, INN (Summit Hotel Properties Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.3%, cap $765.8M) and SVC (Service Properties Trust of) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.3%, cap $809.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAFE leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while BFS leads on capital efficiency (51.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTO?
▼

Per CTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000023795), CTO Realty Growth Inc. generated $149.5M in revenue (+20.1% YoY), $2.6M in net income, and $64.6M in free cash flow against $1.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.92 (-0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 43.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (6)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$24 Bull$19 Base$15 Bear
📬 FREE CTO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CTO SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$20.46-4.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$19.58-2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$19.03+5% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$19.98-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CTO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CTO currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.52) and Max Pain ($20.98) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.85.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CTO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why CTO Stock slipped -0.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) slipped -0.55% to $19.98, trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($16.66 – $22.71). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($16.66 – $22.71) with RSI-14 at 50 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5% around $19.98 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $64.6M annual free cash flow.
Live CTO Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 3d ago
AI Cracks Fuel REIT Comeback

The Fed held rates steady following September's hike, with two dissenters favoring another increase. Check out the market update here.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CTO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CTO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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CTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.92%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $19.71H $20.09L $19.71C $19.98VOL 397.6K
RES: $20.48SUP: $18.32SMA50: $20.52SMA200: $20.26
$23.05$21.63$20.20$18.77$17.35RES $20.48SUP $18.32$19.982026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CTO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CTO Butterfly Map → + Track CTO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
21.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTO)

Financials Rank #652 of 1097 ⚔️ INN vs CTO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CTO vs. INN, SVC, SAFE, BFS)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) ranks #652 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #605 by equity capitalization ($778.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SAFE leads on earnings valuation at 7.0x trailing P/E, while BFS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 51.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BFS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with CTO at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CTO ACTIVE
CTO Realty Growth Inc.
D 50/100 — — 4.8% -0.55% $778.7M Benchmark Subject
INN
Summit Hotel Properties Inc.
C- 59/100 — — 6.3% -0.84% $765.8M /inn-vs-cto →
SVC
Service Properties Trust of
D- 38/100 — — -31.3% -0.64% $809.4M /svc-vs-cto →
SAFE
Safehold Inc.
D 51/100 7.0x — 3.3% -2.77% $817.9M /safe-vs-cto →
BFS
Saul Centers Inc.
C- 61/100 19.4x — 51.6% -1.81% $721.7M /bfs-vs-cto →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000023795 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) reported GAAP revenue of $149.5M (+20.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $124.5M , and +37.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.6M, operating cash flow of $64.6M, and free cash flow of $64.6M (+7.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTO closed FY2025 with $1.26B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $149.5M $2.6M $64.6M $64.6M $1.26B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $124.5M -$8.8M $59.9M $59.9M $1.18B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $109.1M $758.0K $46.3M $46.3M — —

3. CTO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, CTO Realty Growth Inc. (NYSE: CTO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $19.98 (-0.55% 1D, market cap $778.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CTO ranks #652 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CTO compare to INN and SVC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), CTO carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, INN (Summit Hotel Properties Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.3%, cap $765.8M) and SVC (Service Properties Trust of) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.3%, cap $809.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAFE leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while BFS leads on capital efficiency (51.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTO?

Per CTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000023795), CTO Realty Growth Inc. generated $149.5M in revenue (+20.1% YoY), $2.6M in net income, and $64.6M in free cash flow against $1.26B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CTO last traded at $19.98 (-0.55% on volume of 395,616 shares), positioning the stock -2.63% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.52) and -1.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($20.26). Across its 52-week range of $16.66 to $22.71, CTO sits at the 54.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($18.98 to $20.98).

Direct Sub-Reports: CTO RQD Cockpit CTO 12M Forecast CTO Earnings & Move CTO Dividends & DRIP CTO Insiders & 13F CTO Whale Options CTO Profit Sankey CTO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CTO — CTO Realty Growth Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $19.98 (-0.55% 1D, market capitalization $778.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 22.7%, and free cash flow yield of 8.51%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

CTO Realty Growth Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. The profile identifies the company by its market capitalization of $0.8B. — details on the specific properties, tenants, or revenue model were provided.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) reported $149.5M in annual revenue (up from $124.5M in FY2024, +20.1% YoY) and $2.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($109.1M revenue, $758.0K net income) through FY2025, CTO scaled operating cash flow to $64.6M and free cash flow to $64.6M, backed by $1.26B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 8.51% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $16.66 – $22.71 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation and 22.1x EV/EBITDA against 22.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), CTO carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can CTO sustain or expand its 22.7% operating margin and 4.8% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $149.5M and free cash flow of $64.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CTO's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CTO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CTO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CTO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.98?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CTO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CTO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $24.24 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 6.46% dividend yield and an 8.51% FCF yield, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, give the stock a cash

The street is overcomplicating CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO). A 6.46% dividend yield and an 8.51% FCF yield, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, give the stock a cash-generation and balance-sheet profile that offsets its weaker institutional and macro scores.. With an RQD score of 50/100 (D) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $21.29.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 6/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $19.71 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.78 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $19.71

With ROIC at 4.8%, a 1.7% net margin, and 22.1x EV/EBITDA, the stock carries a premium valuation against modest returns on capital, and

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short CTO above $19.71. With ROIC at 4.8%, a 1.7% net margin, and 22.1x EV/EBITDA, the stock carries a premium valuation against modest returns on capital, and institutional flow is rated 6 of 20 with no analyst coverage to support it.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (8.51%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $22.71.

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