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Stock Ratings / Industrials / CVLG / earnings
HTLD (28) MRTN (47) ULH (43) WERN (28) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.2% Move

$33.47 +8.25% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.90

Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $784.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CVLG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: CVLG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $33.47 (+8.25% 1D, market cap $784.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, CVLG ranks #364 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CVLG compare to HTLD and MRTN in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), CVLG carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 101.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.4%. By comparison, HTLD (Heartland Express Inc.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $790.3M) and MRTN (Marten Transport Ltd.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 55.1x, ROIC 2.5%, cap $957.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVLG?
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Per CVLG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000928658), Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) generated $8.2M in revenue (-93.4% YoY), $7.2M in net income, and -$33.9M in free cash flow against $1.05B in total assets and $234.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.90 (+1.29%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (6)SEC (13)Macro (5)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
$52 Bull$30 Base$24 Bear
📬 FREE CVLG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CVLG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CVLG SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (36% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
28
Grade E$31.45-6.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
31
Grade E$29.33+2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
33
Grade E$29.93+11.8% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$33.47-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (28) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CVLG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CVLG currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($32.72) and Max Pain ($35.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $52.37.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CVLG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CVLG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.2% Swing Band

±$2.74 Expected Swing
$30.73 (-8.2%)Spot $33.47$36.21 (+8.2%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

CVLG Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 36/100

Trailing EPS: $0.29 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (36/100)Model Risk Weight (64/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$8.2M$7.2M-$33.9M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$125.3M$35.9M-$30.1M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$164.7M$55.2K$84.8M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CVLG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CVLG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CVLG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.98%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $28.82H $33.47L $28.82C $33.47VOL 353.8K
RES: $58.17SUP: $27.38SMA50: $32.72SMA200: $34.06
$51.65$44.31$36.98$29.64$22.30RES $58.17SUP $27.38$33.472026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CVLG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CVLG Butterfly Map → + Track CVLG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -93.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CVLG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CVLG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CVLG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CVLG)

Industrials Rank #364 of 486 ⚔️ HTLD vs CVLG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (CVLG vs. HTLD, MRTN, ULH, WERN)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) ranks #364 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #270 by equity capitalization ($784.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRTN leads on earnings valuation at 55.1x trailing P/E, while MRTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MRTN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with CVLG at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CVLG ACTIVE
Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)
D- 36/100 101.0x — 0.4% +8.25% $784.7M Benchmark Subject
HTLD
Heartland Express Inc.
E 28/100 — — -5.1% +3.33% $790.3M /htld-vs-cvlg →
MRTN
Marten Transport Ltd.
D 47/100 55.1x — 2.5% +2.56% $957.1M /mrtn-vs-cvlg →
ULH
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -4.2% +26.34% $595.6M /ulh-vs-cvlg →
WERN
Werner Enterprises Inc.
E 28/100 — — 0.4% +3.32% $1.66B /wern-vs-cvlg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000928658 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) reported GAAP revenue of $8.2M (-93.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $125.3M , and -95.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $7.2M, operating cash flow of $113.6M, and free cash flow of -$33.9M (-12.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, CVLG closed FY2025 with $1.05B in total assets against $234.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.2M $7.2M $113.6M -$33.9M $1.05B $234.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $125.3M $35.9M $122.9M -$30.1M $997.6M $187.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $164.7M $55.2K $84.8M $84.8M — —

3. CVLG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CVLG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: CVLG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $33.47 (+8.25% 1D, market cap $784.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, CVLG ranks #364 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CVLG compare to HTLD and MRTN in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), CVLG carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 101.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.4%. By comparison, HTLD (Heartland Express Inc.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $790.3M) and MRTN (Marten Transport Ltd.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 55.1x, ROIC 2.5%, cap $957.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVLG?

Per CVLG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000928658), Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) generated $8.2M in revenue (-93.4% YoY), $7.2M in net income, and -$33.9M in free cash flow against $1.05B in total assets and $234.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CVLG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CVLG last traded at $33.47 (+8.25% on volume of 441,531 shares), positioning the stock +2.29% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.72) and -1.73% below its 200-day simple moving average ($34.06). Across its 52-week range of $18.00 to $49.88, CVLG sits at the 48.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($30.73 to $36.21).

Direct Sub-Reports: CVLG RQD Cockpit CVLG 12M Forecast CVLG Earnings & Move CVLG Dividends & DRIP CVLG Insiders & 13F CVLG Whale Options CVLG Profit Sankey CVLG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CVLG — Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $33.47 (+8.25% 1D, market capitalization $784.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 0.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -4.64%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.58x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) is listed on the NYSE and operates in the Industrials sector, Trucking Freight/Courier Services industry, profile. The profile states the issuer has a market capitalization of $0.7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) reported $8.2M in annual revenue (up from $125.3M in FY2024, -93.4% YoY) and $7.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($164.7M revenue, $55.2K net income) through FY2025, CVLG scaled operating cash flow to $113.6M and free cash flow to -$33.9M, backed by $1.05B in total assets against $234.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -4.64% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $18.00 – $49.88 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 101.0x trailing P/E and 7.5x EV/EBITDA against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Trucking Freight/Courier Services (Industrials), CVLG carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can CVLG sustain or expand its — operating margin and 0.4% ROIC against Trucking Freight/Courier Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.2M and free cash flow of -$33.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $234.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CVLG's 93.9x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CVLG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CVLG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CVLG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $33.47?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CVLG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CVLG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $36.79 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet scores 13/20 with an Altman Z of 2.5 and Piotroski F of 5/9, providing some financial stability.

Don't sleep on CVLG's setup in Industrials. The forensic balance sheet scores 13/20 with an Altman Z of 2.5 and Piotroski F of 5/9, providing some financial stability.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (36/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 101.0x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Trucking Freight/Courier Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $26.28 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $30.92

ROIC of 0.4% and a -4.64% FCF yield, combined with a 101x trailing P/E, leave little cash-return support for the valuation.

Fading this rally in CVLG at $30.92. ROIC of 0.4% and a -4.64% FCF yield, combined with a 101x trailing P/E, leave little cash-return support for the valuation.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $30.92 (52-wk range $18.00–$49.88), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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