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Deswell Industries Inc. (DSWL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$2.85 -1.72% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.84

Deswell Industries Inc. (DSWL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $46.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on DSWL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is DSWL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Deswell Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: DSWL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $2.85 (-1.72% 1D, market cap $46.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, DSWL ranks #311 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does DSWL compare to CMT and SWIM in the Industrials sector?
▼

Within the Industrials sector (Plastic Products), DSWL carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.4x, gross margin of 22.4%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, CMT (Core Molding Technologies Inc) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $198.2M) and SWIM (Latham Group Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 76.8x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $860.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DSWL leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while KRT leads on capital efficiency (29.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DSWL?
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Per DSWL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0000946936), Deswell Industries Inc. generated $61.3M in revenue (-9.3% YoY), $10.6M in net income, and $4.7M in free cash flow against $0 in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.84 (-0.50%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 7.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510044
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (4)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
$4 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE DSWL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DSWL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY DSWL SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$3.19-6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$3.00-0.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$2.98-4.4% Next Q
Current
44
Grade D$2.85-6.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a DSWL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While DSWL currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.06) and Max Pain ($2.99) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.26.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DSWL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “DSWL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your DSWL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $2.85: 3508.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.08
$7,298
$-2,702 (-27.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.67
$9,368
$-632 (-6.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $4.26
$14,947
+$4,947 (+49.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DSWL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of DSWL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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DSWL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.67%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $2.95H $2.95L $2.85C $2.85VOL 8.4K
RES: $3.07SUP: $2.62SMA50: $3.06SMA200: $3.30
$4.07$3.74$3.40$3.07$2.74RES $3.07SUP $2.62$2.852026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DSWL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 DSWL Butterfly Map → + Track DSWL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -9.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DSWL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DSWL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DSWL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DSWL)

Industrials Rank #311 of 486 ⚔️ CMT vs DSWL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (DSWL vs. CMT, SWIM, KRT, MYE)

Industry: Plastic Products (9 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Deswell Industries Inc. (DSWL) ranks #311 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #408 by equity capitalization ($46.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DSWL leads on earnings valuation at 4.4x trailing P/E, while KRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.3% ROIC and 36.8% gross margin. KRT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with DSWL at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
DSWL ACTIVE
Deswell Industries Inc.
D 44/100 4.4x 22.4% — -1.72% $46.1M Benchmark Subject
CMT
Core Molding Technologies Inc
D 48/100 17.8x 17.4% 8.2% +0.89% $198.2M /cmt-vs-dswl →
SWIM
Latham Group Inc.
D+ 57/100 76.8x 33.4% 3.5% +2.05% $860.0M /swim-vs-dswl →
KRT
Karat Packaging Inc.
B+ 78/100 34.4x 36.8% 29.3% -1.72% $1.08B /krt-vs-dswl →
MYE
Myers Industries Inc.
C- 61/100 32.7x 33.4% 10.4% -2.20% $1.11B /mye-vs-dswl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0000946936 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Deswell Industries Inc. (DSWL) reported GAAP revenue of $61.3M (-9.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $67.6M , and -11.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $10.6M, operating cash flow of $5.2M, and free cash flow of $4.7M (-64.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, DSWL closed FY2025 with $0 in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-03-31 $61.3M $10.6M $5.2M $4.7M — —
FY2024 (FY) 2025-03-31 $67.6M $11.1M $13.5M $13.2M — —
FY2023 (FY) 2024-03-31 $69.4M $7.7M $13.2M $13.2M — —

3. DSWL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DSWL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Deswell Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: DSWL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $2.85 (-1.72% 1D, market cap $46.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, DSWL ranks #311 in composite RQD confidence.

How does DSWL compare to CMT and SWIM in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Plastic Products), DSWL carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.4x, gross margin of 22.4%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, CMT (Core Molding Technologies Inc) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $198.2M) and SWIM (Latham Group Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 76.8x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $860.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DSWL leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while KRT leads on capital efficiency (29.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DSWL?

Per DSWL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0000946936), Deswell Industries Inc. generated $61.3M in revenue (-9.3% YoY), $10.6M in net income, and $4.7M in free cash flow against $0 in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is DSWL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DSWL last traded at $2.85 (-1.72% on volume of 12,106 shares), positioning the stock -6.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.06) and -13.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.30). Across its 52-week range of $2.84 to $4.06, DSWL sits at the 0.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($2.68 to $3.02).

Direct Sub-Reports: DSWL RQD Cockpit DSWL 12M Forecast DSWL Earnings & Move DSWL Dividends & DRIP DSWL Insiders & 13F DSWL Whale Options DSWL Profit Sankey DSWL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

DSWL — Deswell Industries Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-03-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Deswell Industries Inc. (DSWL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 44/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.85 (-1.72% 1D, market capitalization $46.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of 22.4%, operating margin of 3.2%, and free cash flow yield of 10.06%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Deswell Industries Inc. (DSWL) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Plastic Products industry (Industrials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $46.1M. The business operates with a gross margin of 22.4%, an operating margin of 3.2%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 0% (free cash flow yield of 10.06%). Within the Plastic Products peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-31), Deswell Industries Inc. (DSWL) reported $61.3M in annual revenue (up from $67.6M in FY2024, -9.3% YoY) and $10.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($69.4M revenue, $7.7M net income) through FY2025, DSWL scaled operating cash flow to $5.2M and free cash flow to $4.7M, backed by $0 in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 44/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 10.06% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.84 – $4.06 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 4.4x trailing P/E and 19.6x EV/EBITDA against 3.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The sector and industry classification (Industrials / Plastic Products) is the only available context for ripple analysis.

  • Key Question #1: Can DSWL sustain or expand its 3.2% operating margin and — ROIC against Plastic Products peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $61.3M and free cash flow of $4.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is DSWL's 4.1x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

DSWL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Deswell Industries Inc. (DSWL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to DSWL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

DSWL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.85?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON DSWL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on DSWL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.71 (+27.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Earnings multiples are very low (P/E TTM 4.4, Forward P/E 4.1) and the FCF yield is 10.06%, with insider flow scoring 14 of 20.

Picked up a starter position in DSWL in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $2.90. Earnings multiples are very low (P/E TTM 4.4, Forward P/E 4.1) and the FCF yield is 10.06%, with insider flow scoring 14 of 20.. Trading inside a $2.84–$4.06 52-week range with 10.06% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Plastic Products multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — DSWL's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.49 (-14.1%)
Spot @ $2.90

ROIC is 0%, institutional flow scores only 4 of 20, and revenue fell from $69.4M to $61.3M across the reported periods.

Careful chasing DSWL at $2.90. ROIC is 0%, institutional flow scores only 4 of 20, and revenue fell from $69.4M to $61.3M across the reported periods.. Gross margin is 22.4%, but operating margin is 3.2%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $2.49 on multiple compression.

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