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Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$11.54 +1.14% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.54

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 34/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.47B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE: EFC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $11.54 (+1.14% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, EFC ranks #988 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EFC compare to IIPR and BXDC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), EFC carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.2%. By comparison, IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.43B) and BXDC (Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOR leads on earnings multiple (7.6x) while FOR leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EFC?
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Per EFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001411342), Ellington Financial Inc. generated $8.13B in revenue (+18.6% YoY), $150.8M in net income, and -$925.5M in free cash flow against $19.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.54 (+0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (34/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510034
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (4)SEC (10)Macro (5)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.8% Base Target
$15 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE EFC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EFC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (34/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EFC SCORES 34/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+10/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 50% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$11.69-1.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
39
Grade E$11.48+1.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$11.70-1.4% Next Q
Current
34
Grade E$11.54-8.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → E (34)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EFC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While EFC currently carries a cautious 34/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.29) and Max Pain ($12.12) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $14.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EFC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EFC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 34%NO 66%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±4.7%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (EFC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for EFC.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EFC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of EFC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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EFC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.30%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $11.83H $11.83L $11.41C $11.54VOL 1.70M
RES: $13.82SUP: $10.84SMA50: $12.29SMA200: $12.87
$14.02$13.29$12.56$11.83$11.10RES $13.82SUP $10.84$11.542026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EFC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EFC Butterfly Map → + Track EFC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-1.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EFC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EFC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EFC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EFC)

Financials Rank #988 of 1097 ⚔️ IIPR vs EFC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (EFC vs. IIPR, BXDC, OPEN, FOR)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) ranks #988 by composite RQD confidence (34/100, grade E) and #489 by equity capitalization ($1.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FOR leads on earnings valuation at 7.6x trailing P/E, while FOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.4% ROIC and — gross margin. IIPR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with EFC at 34/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
EFC ACTIVE
Ellington Financial Inc.
E 34/100 10.1x — 8.2% +1.14% $1.47B Benchmark Subject
IIPR
Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.
D+ 57/100 12.5x — 5.4% +4.54% $1.43B /iipr-vs-efc →
BXDC
Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.
D 46/100 — — — +0.44% $1.59B /bxdc-vs-efc →
OPEN
Opendoor Technologies Inc
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% 0.00% $1.75B /open-vs-efc →
FOR
Forestar Group Inc
E 29/100 7.6x — 9.4% +2.55% $1.22B /for-vs-efc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001411342 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) reported GAAP revenue of $8.13B (+18.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.85B , and +784.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $150.8M, operating cash flow of -$925.5M, and free cash flow of -$925.5M (-115.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, EFC closed FY2025 with $19.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.13B $150.8M -$925.5M -$925.5M $19.35B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $6.85B $148.1M -$430.5M -$430.5M $16.32B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $919.1M $87.9K -$241.9M -$241.9M — —

3. EFC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE: EFC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $11.54 (+1.14% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, EFC ranks #988 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EFC compare to IIPR and BXDC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), EFC carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.2%. By comparison, IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.43B) and BXDC (Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOR leads on earnings multiple (7.6x) while FOR leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EFC?

Per EFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001411342), Ellington Financial Inc. generated $8.13B in revenue (+18.6% YoY), $150.8M in net income, and -$925.5M in free cash flow against $19.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EFC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EFC last traded at $11.54 (+1.14% on volume of 2,099,831 shares), positioning the stock -6.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.29) and -10.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.87). Across its 52-week range of $11.28 to $14.12, EFC sits at the 9.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($11.00 to $12.08).

Direct Sub-Reports: EFC RQD Cockpit EFC 12M Forecast EFC Earnings & Move EFC Dividends & DRIP EFC Insiders & 13F EFC Whale Options EFC Profit Sankey EFC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 34/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

EFC — Ellington Financial Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 34/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $11.54 (+1.14% 1D, market capitalization $1.47B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Sector: Financials. Industry: Real Estate. Exchange: NYSE.. (EFC) is a NYSE-listed Financials issuer operating in Real Estate with a market capitalization of $1.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) reported $8.13B in annual revenue (up from $6.85B in FY2024, +18.6% YoY) and $150.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($919.1M revenue, $87.9K net income) through FY2025, EFC scaled operating cash flow to -$925.5M and free cash flow to -$925.5M, backed by $19.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 34/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.28 – $14.12 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 10.1x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream dependencies, downstream customers, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks beyond the sector and industry labels (Financials / Real Estate) and the Beta of 1.0.

  • Key Question #1: Can EFC sustain or expand its — operating margin and 8.2% ROIC against Real Estate peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.13B and free cash flow of -$925.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is EFC's 9.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

EFC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to EFC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

EFC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.54?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON EFC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on EFC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.24 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock trades at a 10.1 TTM P/E and 9.4 forward P/E with reported net income rising to $150.8M in FY 2025.

Picked up a starter position in EFC in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $11.41. The stock trades at a 10.1 TTM P/E and 9.4 forward P/E with reported net income rising to $150.8M in FY 2025.. Trading inside a $11.28–$14.12 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Real Estate multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — EFC's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.81 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $11.41

Free cash flow was negative in all three reported periods, reaching -$925.5M in FY 2025, and the FCF yield is 0%.

Careful chasing EFC at $11.41. Free cash flow was negative in all three reported periods, reaching -$925.5M in FY 2025, and the FCF yield is 0%.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $9.81 on multiple compression.

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