Should I buy, hold, or sell ELAN stock right now?

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 45/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ELAN's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ELAN's 12-month base price target is $22.69 (range $17.7 to $29.38), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Health Care / ELAN

BMRN (74) RDY (64) SMMT (40) SYRE (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$24.10 +4.51% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.25

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $11.52B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ELAN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ELAN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-03, Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (NYSE: ELAN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $24.10 (+4.51% 1D, market cap $11.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ELAN ranks #357 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ELAN compare to BMRN and RDY in the Health Care sector?

▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ELAN carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 55.0%, and ROIC of -2.5%. By comparison, BMRN (BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 31.9x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $11.33B) and RDY (Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BMRN leads on earnings multiple (31.9x) while RDY leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ELAN?

▼

Per ELAN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001739104), Elanco Animal Health Incorporated generated $4.71B in revenue (+6.2% YoY), -$232.0M in net income, and $284.0M in free cash flow against $13.36B in total assets and $3.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.25 (+0.62%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ELAN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ELAN SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.24 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51.9) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$22.55+0% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$22.55+0.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$22.65+6.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$24.10-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ELAN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ELAN currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($23.04) and Max Pain ($25.31) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $29.38.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ELAN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ELAN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

51.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.24>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE55% OF RANGE

L: $19$24.10H: $28

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on ELAN

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

-2.5% ROIC with 55.0% gross margin and 2.45% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 1.24 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (43)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ELAN

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ELAN)

✓Walkthrough of ELAN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ELAN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.06%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $23.24H $24.10L $23.06C $24.10VOL 3.45M

RES: $29.72SUP: $21.81SMA50: $23.04SMA200: $23.78

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ELAN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ELAN Butterfly Map → + Track ELAN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

13.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ELAN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ELAN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ELAN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ELAN)

Health Care Rank #357 of 1015 ⚔️ BMRN vs ELAN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ELAN vs. BMRN, RDY, SMMT, SYRE)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) ranks #357 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #94 by equity capitalization ($11.52B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BMRN leads on earnings valuation at 31.9x trailing P/E, while RDY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. BMRN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with ELAN at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ELAN ACTIVE Elanco Animal Health Incorporated	D	45/100	—	55.0%	-2.5%	+4.51%	$11.52B	Benchmark Subject
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.	B	74/100	31.9x	77.7%	6.0%	-1.83%	$11.33B	/bmrn-vs-elan →
RDY Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd	C	64/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-0.28%	$11.83B	/rdy-vs-elan →
SMMT Summit Therapeutics Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-35.0%	-7.67%	$12.82B	/smmt-vs-elan →
SYRE Spyre Therapeutics Inc.	D+	55/100	—	—	-20.0%	-1.09%	$10.08B	/syre-vs-elan →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001739104 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) reported GAAP revenue of $4.71B (+6.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.44B , and +6.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$232.0M, operating cash flow of $560.0M, and free cash flow of $284.0M (-27.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ELAN closed FY2025 with $13.36B in total assets against $3.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.24, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.71B	-$232.0M	$560.0M	$284.0M	$13.36B	$3.06B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.44B	$338.0M	$541.0M	$394.0M	$12.61B	$4.28B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$4.42B	-$1.23B	$271.0M	$72.2M	$6.39B	$1.49B

3. ELAN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ELAN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ELAN compare to BMRN and RDY in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ELAN?

Where is ELAN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ELAN last traded at $24.10 (+4.51% on volume of 6,539,964 shares), positioning the stock +4.60% above its 50-day simple moving average ($23.04) and +1.35% above its 200-day simple moving average ($23.78). Across its 52-week range of $19.40 to $27.98, ELAN sits at the 54.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($22.68 to $25.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: ELAN RQD Cockpit ELAN 12M Forecast ELAN Earnings & Move ELAN Dividends & DRIP ELAN Insiders & 13F ELAN Whale Options ELAN Profit Sankey ELAN News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ELAN — Elanco Animal Health Incorporated: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 45/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $24.10 (+4.51% 1D, market capitalization $11.52B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -2.5%, gross margin of 55.0%, operating margin of -6.0%, and free cash flow yield of 2.45%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 0.96x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.24, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.44x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Health Care sector and the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The profile identifies the company as operating in animal health. The company carries a market capitalization of $11.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) reported $4.71B in annual revenue (up from $4.44B in FY2024, +6.2% YoY) and -$232.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.42B revenue, -$1.23B net income) through FY2025, ELAN scaled operating cash flow to $560.0M and free cash flow to $284.0M, backed by $13.36B in total assets against $3.06B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 45/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 2.45% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $19.40 – $27.98 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation against -6.0% operating margins and a 0.96x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should note that the absence of mapped links is a data gap, not evidence of an absence of dependencies.

Key Question #1: Can ELAN sustain or expand its -6.0% operating margin and -2.5% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.71B and free cash flow of $284.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.06B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ELAN's 20.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.96x)?

ELAN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ELAN Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 23h ago

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated Estimates – NYSE:ELAN

TradingView report covering Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release

Yahoo Finance report covering Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) Stock Price, News & Analysis

Stock Titan report covering Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Elanco Animal Health (NYSE:ELAN) Stock Price

Simply Wall St report covering Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Will Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?

Yahoo Finance report covering Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Traders Daily • 1d ago

How Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) Affects Rotational Strategy Timing

Stock Traders Daily report covering Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Elanco's people chief retires at year-end; Jamie Preston starts Nov. 3.

Stock Titan report covering Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ELAN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $24.10?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ELAN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $29.06 (+26.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Forward P/E of 20 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggest the market expects and the balance sheet can support an earnings and cash-flow

Long ELAN at $23.06 targeting $29.06. Forward P/E of 20 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggest the market expects and the balance sheet can support an earnings and cash-flow recovery from negative trailing results.. Institutional whale score is 9/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $19.40 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ELAN's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $19.60 (-15.0%)

Spot @ $23.06

Negative ROIC of -2.5%, an Altman Z of 1.24, and the lowest pillar score of 5/20 on macro regime fit point to weak economics and limite

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ELAN above $23.06. Negative ROIC of -2.5%, an Altman Z of 1.24, and the lowest pillar score of 5/20 on macro regime fit point to weak economics and limited sector tailwind.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20) and FCF yield (2.45%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $27.98.