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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ELF / options
IPAR (81) COTY (53) CHD (80) SCL (62) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$110.68 -0.90% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $110.29

e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $6.59B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ELF Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ELF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (NYSE: ELF) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $110.68 (-0.90% 1D, market cap $6.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ELF ranks #167 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ELF compare to IPAR and COTY in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Package Goods/Cosmetics), ELF carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 70.7%, and ROIC of 4.0%. By comparison, IPAR (Interparfums Inc.) holds a A- grade (81/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 21.3%, cap $3.73B) and COTY (Coty Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.1%, cap $2.99B). Among the 5-stock peer group, IPAR leads on earnings multiple (17.8x) while IPAR leads on capital efficiency (21.3% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ELF?
β–Ό

Per ELF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001600033), e.l.f. Beauty Inc. generated $1.64B in revenue (+24.6% YoY), $26.3M in net income, and $190.1M in free cash flow against $2.32B in total assets and $522.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $110.29 (-0.35%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 11.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 57.3% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C+
025507510069
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B Β· Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (17)SEC (16)Macro (10)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
$137 Bull$116 Base$91 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ELF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ELF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ELF SCORES 69/100 (C+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±7.1% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.42 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (54.5) create a -10 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$108.13+5.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$113.78+1.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$115.41-4.1% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$110.68+2% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (61) β†’ C+ (69)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ELF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, ELF faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 68.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($106.01) or 200D SMA ($81.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($116.16) toward Bear Floor ($90.60).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ELFβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œELF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±7.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ELF)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ELF.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ELF & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ELF
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
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ELF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +78.95%β–Ό SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $113.0H $113.0L $110.7C $110.7VOL 1.03M
RES: $122.1SUP: $111.8SMA50: $106.0SMA200: $81.65
$123.2$103.0$82.86$62.71$42.57RES $122.1SUP $111.8$110.72026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ELF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ ELF Butterfly Map β†’ + Track ELF β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +24.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ELF today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ELF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ELF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ELF)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #167 of 1009 βš”οΈ IPAR vs ELF Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ELF vs. IPAR, COTY, CHD, SCL)

Industry: Package Goods/Cosmetics (23 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF) ranks #167 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #225 by equity capitalization ($6.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IPAR leads on earnings valuation at 17.8x trailing P/E, while IPAR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.3% ROIC and 63.6% gross margin. IPAR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with ELF at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ELF ACTIVE
e.l.f. Beauty Inc.
C+ 69/100 β€” 70.7% 4.0% -0.90% $6.59B Benchmark Subject
IPAR
Interparfums Inc.
A- 81/100 17.8x 63.6% 21.3% +3.00% $3.73B /ipar-vs-elf β†’
COTY
Coty Inc. (Class A)
D+ 53/100 β€” 64.8% 3.1% +2.35% $2.99B /coty-vs-elf β†’
CHD
Church & Dwight Company Inc.
B+ 80/100 34.1x 44.7% 14.7% +3.00% $25.44B /chd-vs-elf β†’
SCL
Stepan Company
C 62/100 33.9x 11.6% 4.3% +0.99% $1.58B /scl-vs-elf β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2026-03-31 β€’ CIK 0001600033 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF) reported GAAP revenue of $1.64B (+24.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.31B , and +59.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $26.3M, operating cash flow of $212.5M, and free cash flow of $190.1M (+64.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ELF closed FY2025 with $2.32B in total assets against $522.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.42, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-03-31 $1.64B $26.3M $212.5M $190.1M $2.32B $522.8M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-03-31 $1.31B $112.1M $133.8M $115.3M $1.26B $223.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-03-31 $1.02B $127.7M $71.2M $25.1M $3.67B $857.8M

3. ELF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ELF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (NYSE: ELF) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $110.68 (-0.90% 1D, market cap $6.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ELF ranks #167 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ELF compare to IPAR and COTY in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Package Goods/Cosmetics), ELF carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 70.7%, and ROIC of 4.0%. By comparison, IPAR (Interparfums Inc.) holds a A- grade (81/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 21.3%, cap $3.73B) and COTY (Coty Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.1%, cap $2.99B). Among the 5-stock peer group, IPAR leads on earnings multiple (17.8x) while IPAR leads on capital efficiency (21.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ELF?

Per ELF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001600033), e.l.f. Beauty Inc. generated $1.64B in revenue (+24.6% YoY), $26.3M in net income, and $190.1M in free cash flow against $2.32B in total assets and $522.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ELF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ELF last traded at $110.68 (-0.90% on volume of 1,266,942 shares), positioning the stock +4.41% above its 50-day simple moving average ($106.01) and +35.55% above its 200-day simple moving average ($81.65). Across its 52-week range of $48.82 to $123.07, ELF sits at the 83.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.1% ($102.82 to $118.54).

Direct Sub-Reports: ELF RQD Cockpit ELF 12M Forecast ELF Earnings & Move ELF Dividends & DRIP ELF Insiders & 13F ELF Whale Options ELF Profit Sankey ELF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 69/100 (C+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ELF β€” e.l.f. Beauty Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-03-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $110.68 (-0.90% 1D, market capitalization $6.59B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.0%, gross margin of 70.7%, operating margin of 4.5%, and free cash flow yield of 2.85%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 0.91x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.42, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.42x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

E.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Package Goods/Cosmetics industry (per the company profile). Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 70.7%, an operating margin of 4.5%, and a net margin of 1.6%, which indicates that revenue is generated at a high gross level before operating and other costs are deducted. Revenue growth is visible in the financials, as detailed below.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-31), e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF) reported $1.64B in annual revenue (up from $1.31B in FY2024, +24.6% YoY) and $26.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.02B revenue, $127.7M net income) through FY2025, ELF scaled operating cash flow to $212.5M and free cash flow to $190.1M, backed by $2.32B in total assets against $522.8M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C+ β€’ RQD 69/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $48.82 – $123.07 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation and 75.0x EV/EBITDA against 4.5% operating margins and a 0.91x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. The sector is Consumer Discretionary and the industry is Package Goods/Cosmetics, but no sector correlations are provided. A prospective investor should note that no second-order bottleneck can be identified from the supplied material.

  • Key Question #1: Can ELF sustain or expand its 4.5% operating margin and 4.0% ROIC against Package Goods/Cosmetics peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.64B and free cash flow of $190.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $522.8M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ELF's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.91x)?

ELF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ELF Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ELF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $110.68?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ELF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ELF:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Long-Only πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $130.68 (+17.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation (17 of 20 on the whale 13F pillar) and a 4.42 Altman Z-Score with a Piotroski F of 8/9 point to a strong bal

The street is overcomplicating e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF). Institutional accumulation (17 of 20 on the whale 13F pillar) and a 4.42 Altman Z-Score with a Piotroski F of 8/9 point to a strong balance sheet and firm institutional support.. With an RQD score of 69/100 (C+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $120.63.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 17/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $111.69 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $93.82 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $111.69

Net income fell from $127.7M in FY 2023 to $26.3M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at 75x EV/EBITDA against a 4% ROIC and 2.85% FCF yi

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ELF above $111.69. Net income fell from $127.7M in FY 2023 to $26.3M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at 75x EV/EBITDA against a 4% ROIC and 2.85% FCF yield.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20) and FCF yield (2.85%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $122.36.

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