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Why EPM Stock advanced +1.11% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$3.65 +1.11% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.65

Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $146.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EPM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (NYSE: EPM) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $3.65 (+1.11% 1D, market cap $146.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EPM ranks #144 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EPM compare to SJT and AMPY in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EPM carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 105.4x, gross margin of 42.5%, and ROIC of 5.2%. By comparison, SJT (San Juan Basin Royalty Trust) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $145.0M) and AMPY (Amplify Energy Corp.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 4.1x, ROIC 15.3%, cap $159.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMPY leads on earnings multiple (4.1x) while AMPY leads on capital efficiency (15.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EPM?
▼

Per EPM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001006655), Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. generated $85.8M in revenue (-0.0% YoY), $1.5M in net income, and $33.1M in free cash flow against $169.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
🎯 EPM TRADE EXECUTION LEVELS + TODAY'S TOP 3 TRADES EXACT ENTRY • HARD STOP-LOSS (SUP) • TARGET (RES) • WHY

Where to Enter $EPM, Where to Set Your Hard Stop-Loss & Today's Top 3 High-Conviction Trades

🏆 RECENT ALERT WINNERS: $XYZ +15.6% (2d) $PLTR +13.7% (4d) $VRT +8.4% (2d)
CURRENT TICKER SETUP • $EPM R/R 2.2 : 1 • RQD 48/100 (D)
$EPM
Spot $3.65
1. GET IN (ENTRY)
$3.63–$3.67
2. HARD STOP (SUP)
$3.46 (-5.2%)
3. GET OUT (T1/T2)
$3.89 / $4.07
STOP-LOSS FLOOR (SUP $3.46): Hard stop sits 5.2% below spot to cap downside below key institutional support. If $EPM closes a daily candle below $3.46, step aside.
PROFIT TARGETS (RES $3.89 / $4.07): Scale out 50% at T1 (+6.5%) and trail stop to breakeven for T2 (+11.5%).
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#1 • $MU R/R 3.2 : 1
Micron Technology, Inc.
IN
$108.50
STOP
$103.90
OUT
$117.50
#2 • 🔒 LOCKED R/R 3.4 : 1
AI Liquid-Cooling Leader
Target: +8.53% to +14.86% | Stop: -3.89%
#3 • 🔒 LOCKED R/R 3.1 : 1
Cash-Flow Buyback Machine
Target: +8.38% to +14.53% | Stop: -3.93%
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.65 (+0.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 38.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (11)Whales (7)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.4% Base Target
$5 Bull$3 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE EPM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EPM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EPM SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 38.5% FCF Margin ($33.1M FCF) & 42.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$3.71+1.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$3.76+3.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$3.89-6.2% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$3.65-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EPM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While EPM currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.69) and Max Pain ($3.83) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.24.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EPM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EPM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why EPM Stock advanced +1.11% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) advanced +1.11% to $3.65, trading at 26% of its 52-week range ($3.19 – $4.99). Stretched risk/reward at 105x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 26% of its 52-week range ($3.19 – $4.99) with RSI-14 at 40.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.8% around $3.65 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 42.5% gross margin and $33.1M annual free cash flow.
Live EPM Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EPM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of EPM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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EPM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.26%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $3.80H $3.80L $3.61C $3.65VOL 287.0K
RES: $4.04SUP: $3.54🎯 Entry / Stop & Top 3 Trades ↑SMA50: $3.69SMA200: $4.06
$5.11$4.61$4.10$3.60$3.09RES $4.04SUP $3.54$3.652026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EPM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EPM Butterfly Map → + Track EPM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EPM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EPM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EPM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EPM)

Energy Rank #144 of 211 ⚔️ SJT vs EPM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EPM vs. SJT, AMPY, ANNA, MINE)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) ranks #144 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #180 by equity capitalization ($146.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMPY leads on earnings valuation at 4.1x trailing P/E, while AMPY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.3% ROIC and 93.2% gross margin. AMPY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with EPM at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
EPM ACTIVE
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc.
D 48/100 105.4x 42.5% 5.2% +1.11% $146.7M Benchmark Subject
SJT
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust
D 47/100 — — — +5.47% $145.0M /sjt-vs-epm →
AMPY
Amplify Energy Corp.
D+ 54/100 4.1x 93.2% 15.3% -2.08% $159.2M /ampy-vs-epm →
ANNA
AleAnna Inc. (Class A)
D 50/100 — — 8.5% -1.68% $159.3M /anna-vs-epm →
MINE
Mayfair Gold Corp.
D 45/100 — — — -4.90% $170.2M /mine-vs-epm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001006655 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) reported GAAP revenue of $85.8M (-0.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $85.9M , and -33.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.5M, operating cash flow of $33.1M, and free cash flow of $33.1M (+45.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, EPM closed FY2025 with $169.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.64, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $85.8M $1.5M $33.1M $33.1M $169.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $85.9M $4.1M $22.7M $22.7M $160.2M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $128.5M $35.2M $51.3M $51.3M — —

3. EPM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EPM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (NYSE: EPM) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $3.65 (+1.11% 1D, market cap $146.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EPM ranks #144 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EPM compare to SJT and AMPY in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EPM carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 105.4x, gross margin of 42.5%, and ROIC of 5.2%. By comparison, SJT (San Juan Basin Royalty Trust) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $145.0M) and AMPY (Amplify Energy Corp.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 4.1x, ROIC 15.3%, cap $159.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMPY leads on earnings multiple (4.1x) while AMPY leads on capital efficiency (15.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EPM?

Per EPM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001006655), Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. generated $85.8M in revenue (-0.0% YoY), $1.5M in net income, and $33.1M in free cash flow against $169.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EPM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EPM last traded at $3.65 (+1.11% on volume of 293,794 shares), positioning the stock -1.08% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.69) and -10.10% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.06). Across its 52-week range of $3.19 to $4.99, EPM sits at the 25.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($3.44 to $3.86).

Direct Sub-Reports: EPM RQD Cockpit EPM 12M Forecast EPM Earnings & Move EPM Dividends & DRIP EPM Insiders & 13F EPM Whale Options EPM Profit Sankey EPM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

EPM — Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-06-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.65 (+1.11% 1D, market capitalization $146.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.2%, gross margin of 42.5%, operating margin of 4.9%, and free cash flow yield of 21.29%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.64, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, operating in the Oil & Gas Production industry. The market capitalization is $0.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-06-30), Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) reported $85.8M in annual revenue (up from $85.9M in FY2024, -0.0% YoY) and $1.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($128.5M revenue, $35.2M net income) through FY2025, EPM scaled operating cash flow to $33.1M and free cash flow to $33.1M, backed by $169.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 21.29% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.19 – $4.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 105.4x trailing P/E and 36.3x EV/EBITDA against 4.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signal links are recorded (supply_chain: NONE). Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, commodity price linkages, and 2nd-order bottlenecks: — A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links means this brief cannot assess how commodity-price or input-cost shifts would propagate through EPM's operations.

  • Key Question #1: Can EPM sustain or expand its 4.9% operating margin and 5.2% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $85.8M and free cash flow of $33.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is EPM's 98.0x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

EPM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. (EPM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to EPM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

EPM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.65?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON EPM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on EPM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.64 (+22.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 21.29% FCF yield and a 10.53% dividend yield indicate substantial cash generation relative to the current share price.

Picked up a starter position in EPM in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $3.80. A 21.29% FCF yield and a 10.53% dividend yield indicate substantial cash generation relative to the current share price.. Trading inside a $3.19–$4.99 52-week range with 21.29% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Oil & Gas Production multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on 105.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (42.5%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.93 (-22.9%)
Spot @ $3.80

A 1.64 Altman Z-Score, 5.2% ROIC, and weak 13F flow score (9/20) signal financial and institutional-support risk alongside a 105.4 trai

Careful chasing EPM at $3.80. A 1.64 Altman Z-Score, 5.2% ROIC, and weak 13F flow score (9/20) signal financial and institutional-support risk alongside a 105.4 trailing P/E.. Gross margin is 42.5%, but operating margin is 4.9%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $2.93 on multiple compression.

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