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Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$5.05 +1.20% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.05

Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $859.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ESRT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ESRT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: ESRT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $5.05 (+1.20% 1D, market cap $859.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ESRT ranks #755 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ESRT compare to JBGS and SAFE in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ESRT carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, JBGS (JBG SMITH Properties) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.0%, cap $900.6M) and SAFE (Safehold Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 7.0x, ROIC 3.3%, cap $817.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ORC leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while ESRT leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESRT?
▼

Per ESRT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001541401), Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) generated $766.8M in revenue (+0.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $249.1M in free cash flow against $4.47B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.05 (+0.03%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 32.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D-
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.3% Base Target
$8 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE ESRT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ESRT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ESRT SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 32.5% FCF Margin ($249.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
38
Grade E$4.78-2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$4.67+6.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$4.97+1.6% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$5.05-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ESRT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ESRT currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.50) and Max Pain ($5.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.92.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ESRT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ESRT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ESRT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $5.05: 1980.2 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.73
$7,386
$-2,614 (-26.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.78
$9,465
$-535 (-5.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $7.92
$15,683
+$5,683 (+56.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ESRT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ESRT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ESRT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.68%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $4.97H $5.05L $4.97C $5.05VOL 3.14M
RES: $5.11SUP: $3.35SMA50: $4.50SMA200: $5.27
$6.88$6.08$5.28$4.48$3.68RES $5.11SUP $3.35$5.052026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ESRT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ESRT Butterfly Map → + Track ESRT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ESRT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ESRT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ESRT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ESRT)

Financials Rank #755 of 1097 ⚔️ JBGS vs ESRT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ESRT vs. JBGS, SAFE, SVC, ORC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT) ranks #755 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #583 by equity capitalization ($859.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ORC leads on earnings valuation at 6.1x trailing P/E, while ESRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.6% ROIC and — gross margin. SAFE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 51/100 (D) compared with ESRT at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ESRT ACTIVE
Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)
D 46/100 — — 11.6% +1.20% $859.1M Benchmark Subject
JBGS
JBG SMITH Properties
D- 43/100 — — -12.0% -2.90% $900.6M /jbgs-vs-esrt →
SAFE
Safehold Inc.
D 51/100 7.0x — 3.3% -2.77% $817.9M /safe-vs-esrt →
SVC
Service Properties Trust of
D- 38/100 — — -31.3% -0.64% $809.4M /svc-vs-esrt →
ORC
Orchid Island Capital Inc.
D 50/100 6.1x — 11.6% -0.83% $932.2M /orc-vs-esrt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001541401 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT) reported GAAP revenue of $766.8M (+0.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $766.8M , and +3.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $249.1M, and free cash flow of $249.1M (-4.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ESRT closed FY2025 with $4.47B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $766.8M $0 $249.1M $249.1M $4.47B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $766.8M $0 $260.9M $260.9M $4.51B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $738.2M $0 $232.5M $232.5M — —

3. ESRT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ESRT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: ESRT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $5.05 (+1.20% 1D, market cap $859.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ESRT ranks #755 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ESRT compare to JBGS and SAFE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ESRT carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, JBGS (JBG SMITH Properties) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.0%, cap $900.6M) and SAFE (Safehold Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 7.0x, ROIC 3.3%, cap $817.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ORC leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while ESRT leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESRT?

Per ESRT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001541401), Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) generated $766.8M in revenue (+0.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $249.1M in free cash flow against $4.47B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ESRT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ESRT last traded at $5.05 (+1.20% on volume of 4,190,038 shares), positioning the stock +12.22% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.50) and -4.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.27). Across its 52-week range of $3.93 to $7.54, ESRT sits at the 31.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($4.72 to $5.38).

Direct Sub-Reports: ESRT RQD Cockpit ESRT 12M Forecast ESRT Earnings & Move ESRT Dividends & DRIP ESRT Insiders & 13F ESRT Whale Options ESRT Profit Sankey ESRT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ESRT — Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.05 (+1.20% 1D, market capitalization $859.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 17.7%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Financials sector, Real Estate Investment Trusts industry,. FY 2025 revenue was $766.8M and operating income was $135.6M, which indicates the company generates income from operations as a REIT. Market capitalization is reported at $869.4M.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT) reported $766.8M in annual revenue (up from $766.8M in FY2024, +0.0% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($738.2M revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, ESRT scaled operating cash flow to $249.1M and free cash flow to $249.1M, backed by $4.47B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.93 – $7.54 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 5.4x EV/EBITDA against 17.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The sector and industry classification (Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts) is the only sector context provided. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can ESRT sustain or expand its 17.7% operating margin and 11.6% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $766.8M and free cash flow of $249.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ESRT's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ESRT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ESRT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ESRT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.05?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ESRT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ESRT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.72 (+15.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported ROIC of 11.6% and a 17.7% operating margin, alongside an activist's reported 5.8% stake, support the upside case.

Reported ROIC of 11.6% and a 17.7% operating margin, alongside an activist's reported 5.8% stake, support the upside case.. When you look under the hood at ESRT, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 11.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (10/20) has been quietly accumulating below $7.54. My 12M target is $5.72.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.08 (-17.9%)
Spot @ $4.97

A 0% FCF yield, 0% net margin, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 leave the cash and balance-sheet profile weak.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ESRT: A 0% FCF yield, 0% net margin, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 leave the cash and balance-sheet profile weak.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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