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Stock Ratings / Financials / ESS / earnings
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Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4% Move

$265.56 +0.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $265.30

Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $17.00B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ESS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Essex Property Trust Inc. (NYSE: ESS) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $265.56 (+0.52% 1D, market cap $17.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ESS ranks #293 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ESS compare to HST and KIM in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ESS carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.3%. By comparison, HST (Host Hotels & Resorts Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $17.33B) and KIM (Kimco Realty Corporation (HC)) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 29.5x, ROIC 4.3%, cap $16.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HST leads on earnings multiple (23.0x) while LAMR leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESS?
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Per ESS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000920522), Essex Property Trust Inc. generated $9.4M in revenue (-8.6% YoY), $0 in net income, and $1.07B in free cash flow against $13.16B in total assets and $3.34B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $265.29 (-0.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 11448.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (8)SEC (15)Macro (10)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$320 Bull$272 Base$212 Bear
📬 FREE ESS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ESS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ESS SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
71
Grade B$269.37+1.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$274.11-4.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$261.42+1.6% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$265.56+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ESS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, ESS faces multiple-compression risk if 24.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 14057.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($272.79) or 200D SMA ($269.89) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($271.54) toward Bear Floor ($211.80).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ESS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ESS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4% Swing Band

±$10.62 Expected Swing
$254.94 (-4%)Spot $265.56$276.18 (+4%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ESS Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 63/100

Trailing EPS: $10.90 • YoY Revenue Growth: -8.6%

Model Bullish Setup (63/100)Model Risk Weight (37/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$9.4M$0$1.07B14060.1%
FY 20242024-12-31$10.3M$0$1.07B12105.7%
FY 20232023-12-31$11.1M$0$979.6M92%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ESS & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ESS
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ESS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.34%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $265.2H $265.6L $264.2C $265.6VOL 908.0K
RES: $284.7SUP: $257.4SMA50: $272.8SMA200: $269.9
$306.9$292.1$277.3$262.5$247.6RES $284.7SUP $257.4$265.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ESS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ESS Butterfly Map → + Track ESS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
18.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -8.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ESS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ESS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ESS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ESS)

Financials Rank #293 of 1097 ⚔️ HST vs ESS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ESS vs. HST, KIM, LAMR, WPC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS) ranks #293 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #127 by equity capitalization ($17.00B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HST leads on earnings valuation at 23.0x trailing P/E, while LAMR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and — gross margin. HST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with ESS at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ESS ACTIVE
Essex Property Trust Inc.
C 63/100 24.3x — 8.3% +0.52% $17.00B Benchmark Subject
HST
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc.
B 74/100 23.0x — 8.0% +1.07% $17.33B /hst-vs-ess →
KIM
Kimco Realty Corporation (HC)
B- 70/100 29.5x — 4.3% +2.24% $16.29B /kim-vs-ess →
LAMR
Lamar Advertising Company
B- 71/100 27.5x — 14.8% +0.08% $16.00B /lamr-vs-ess →
WPC
W. P. Carey Inc.
C- 60/100 32.0x — 3.7% +1.01% $14.75B /wpc-vs-ess →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000920522 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS) reported GAAP revenue of $9.4M (-8.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $10.3M , and -15.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $1.07B, and free cash flow of $1.07B (+0.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, ESS closed FY2025 with $13.16B in total assets against $3.34B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $9.4M $0 $1.07B $1.07B $13.16B $3.34B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $10.3M $0 $1.07B $1.07B $12.93B $3.23B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $11.1M $0 $980.1M $979.6M $9.38B $2.20B

3. ESS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ESS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Essex Property Trust Inc. (NYSE: ESS) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $265.56 (+0.52% 1D, market cap $17.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ESS ranks #293 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ESS compare to HST and KIM in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ESS carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.3%. By comparison, HST (Host Hotels & Resorts Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $17.33B) and KIM (Kimco Realty Corporation (HC)) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 29.5x, ROIC 4.3%, cap $16.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HST leads on earnings multiple (23.0x) while LAMR leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESS?

Per ESS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000920522), Essex Property Trust Inc. generated $9.4M in revenue (-8.6% YoY), $0 in net income, and $1.07B in free cash flow against $13.16B in total assets and $3.34B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ESS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ESS last traded at $265.56 (+0.52% on volume of 734,341 shares), positioning the stock -2.65% below its 50-day simple moving average ($272.79) and -1.60% below its 200-day simple moving average ($269.89). Across its 52-week range of $238.46 to $303.35, ESS sits at the 41.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($254.94 to $276.18).

Direct Sub-Reports: ESS RQD Cockpit ESS 12M Forecast ESS Earnings & Move ESS Dividends & DRIP ESS Insiders & 13F ESS Whale Options ESS Profit Sankey ESS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ESS — Essex Property Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $265.56 (+0.52% 1D, market capitalization $17.00B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 75.0%, and free cash flow yield of 6.29%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.87x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS) is a NYSE-listed issuer. Its sector is Financials and its industry is Real Estate Investment Trusts.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS) reported $9.4M in annual revenue (up from $10.3M in FY2024, -8.6% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($11.1M revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, ESS scaled operating cash flow to $1.07B and free cash flow to $1.07B, backed by $13.16B in total assets against $3.34B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $238.46 – $303.35 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 24.3x trailing P/E and 22.3x EV/EBITDA against 75.0% operating margins and a 0.87x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), ESS carries a macro regime beta of 0.87 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can ESS sustain or expand its 75.0% operating margin and 8.3% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $9.4M and free cash flow of $1.07B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.34B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ESS's 22.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.87x)?

ESS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ESS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ESS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $265.56?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ESS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ESS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $330.23 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the Roarable RQD rating, insider conviction scores 16 / 20 and the forensic balance sheet scores 15 / 20, the two strongest pillars

Don't sleep on ESS's setup in Financials. Per the Roarable RQD rating, insider conviction scores 16 / 20 and the forensic balance sheet scores 15 / 20, the two strongest pillars.. Beta of 0.87 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (63/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 24.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $203.42 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $264.18

Per the Roarable RQD rating, whale 13F flow scores only 8 / 20, while P/E (TTM) of 24.3 sits above the forward P/E of 22.6.

I respect the product at Essex Property Trust Inc., but the stock at $264.18 is a different story. Per the Roarable RQD rating, whale 13F flow scores only 8 / 20, while P/E (TTM) of 24.3 sits above the forward P/E of 22.6.. FCF yield is 6.29% and RQD sits at 63/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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