Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. (ESTA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$62.46 -8.70% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.36

Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. (ESTA) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 30/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $2.04B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ESTA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ESTA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 30/100 at a spot price of $62.46 (-8.70% 1D, market cap $2.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ESTA compare to CDRE and ENOV in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Industrial Specialties), ESTA carries a Roarable E (30/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 69.3%, and ROIC of -15.8%. By comparison, CDRE (Cadre Holdings Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 30.2x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $1.33B) and ENOV (Enovis Corporation) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.7%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MSA leads on earnings multiple (24.8x) while MSA leads on capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESTA?
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Per ESTA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001688757), Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. generated $211.1M in revenue (+27.1% YoY), -$51.1M in net income, and -$56.9M in free cash flow against $357.2M in total assets and $247.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.36 (-1.76%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (30/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510030
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (11)SEC (8)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.6% Base Target
$102 Bull$55 Base$43 Bear
📬 FREE ESTA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ESTA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (30/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ESTA SCORES 30/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (37% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.52 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
22
Grade E$61.63-5.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
25
Grade E$58.26+12.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
27
Grade E$65.78-5% Next Q
Current
30
Grade E$62.46-9.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (22) → E (30)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ESTA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ESTA currently carries a cautious 30/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($66.98) and Max Pain ($65.58) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $102.47.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ESTA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ESTA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$7.81 Expected Swing
$54.65 (-12.5%)Spot $62.46$70.27 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ESTA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 30/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 27.1%

Model Bullish Setup (30/100)Model Risk Weight (70/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$211.1M-$51.1M-$56.9M69.3%
FY 20242024-12-31$166.0M-$84.6M-$64.6M66%
FY 20232023-12-31$165.2M-$78.5M-$88.5M69.3%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ESTA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ESTA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ESTA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.08%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $68.97H $68.97L $62.46C $62.46VOL 1.04M
RES: $71.65SUP: $49.99SMA50: $66.98SMA200: $72.40
$100.6$88.23$75.89$63.56$51.22RES $71.65SUP $49.99$62.462026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ESTA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +27.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ESTA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ESTA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ESTA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ESTA)

Health Care Rank #838 of 1016 ⚔️ CDRE vs ESTA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ESTA vs. CDRE, ENOV, AVR, MSA)

Industry: Industrial Specialties (55 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. (ESTA) ranks #838 by composite RQD confidence (30/100, grade E) and #259 by equity capitalization ($2.04B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MSA leads on earnings valuation at 24.8x trailing P/E, while MSA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.6% ROIC and 46.5% gross margin. MSA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with ESTA at 30/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ESTA ACTIVE
Establishment Labs Holdings Inc.
E 30/100 — 69.3% -15.8% -8.70% $2.04B Benchmark Subject
CDRE
Cadre Holdings Inc.
C 62/100 30.2x 42.5% 11.0% -2.38% $1.33B /cdre-vs-esta →
ENOV
Enovis Corporation
D 44/100 — 59.8% -32.7% -12.71% $1.32B /enov-vs-esta →
AVR
Anteris Technologies Global Corp.
E 23/100 — 70.3% -35.0% -1.71% $625.9M /avr-vs-esta →
MSA
MSA Safety Incorporated
B 72/100 24.8x 46.5% 16.6% -0.33% $6.91B /msa-vs-esta →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001688757

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. (ESTA) reported GAAP revenue of $211.1M (+27.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $166.0M , and +27.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$51.1M, operating cash flow of -$50.9M, and free cash flow of -$56.9M (+11.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ESTA closed FY2025 with $357.2M in total assets against $247.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.52, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $211.1M -$51.1M -$50.9M -$56.9M $357.2M $247.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $166.0M -$84.6M -$58.5M -$64.6M $346.8M $219.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $165.2M -$78.5M -$88.5M -$88.5M — —

3. ESTA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ESTA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ESTA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 30/100 at a spot price of $62.46 (-8.70% 1D, market cap $2.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does ESTA compare to CDRE and ENOV in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Industrial Specialties), ESTA carries a Roarable E (30/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 69.3%, and ROIC of -15.8%. By comparison, CDRE (Cadre Holdings Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 30.2x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $1.33B) and ENOV (Enovis Corporation) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.7%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MSA leads on earnings multiple (24.8x) while MSA leads on capital efficiency (16.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESTA?

Per ESTA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001688757), Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. generated $211.1M in revenue (+27.1% YoY), -$51.1M in net income, and -$56.9M in free cash flow against $357.2M in total assets and $247.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ESTA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ESTA last traded at $62.46 (-8.70% on volume of 1,033,162 shares), positioning the stock -6.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($66.98) and -13.73% below its 200-day simple moving average ($72.40). Across its 52-week range of $47.00 to $97.59, ESTA sits at the 30.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($54.65 to $70.27).

ESTA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ESTA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. (ESTA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ESTA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for ESTA, spanning a range between $54.65 and $70.27.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 30/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ESTA — Establishment Labs Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:26:54Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ESTA carries an RQD Score of 30 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The score is the sum of five pillars, each scored out of 20:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 5 / 20. Per the same rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of -15.8% and FCF yield of -2.79%. For a prospective investor, the core operating economics are currently not generating returns on capital or positive free cash flow, which removes the most durable source of intrinsic support.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 11 / 20. This is the strongest pillar, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. It is a supportive signal, but it describes positioning rather than earnings quality, and it does not offset the cash-generation weakness.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. Per the rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scored low. For an investor, this indicates limited insider-level confidence signaled through the tracked flow data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 3 / 20. Per the rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity. Per the Butterfly graph, the stock shows a 1.88x Net Liquidity elasticity, meaning its price is likely to amplify changes in liquidity conditions. Tightening liquidity is therefore a headwind.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 8 / 20. Per the rating, Altman Z is 2.52, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 8.5. These metrics are mid-range rather than distressed, but the leverage level is high relative to cash generation.

Taken together, the valuation tradeoff is that the market cap of $2.04B is supported largely by positioning and growth narrative rather than cash earnings. Upside drivers would require sustained revenue growth converting into improved operating margins and positive FCF. The 2nd-order risk is that a liquidity-sensitive stock with negative FCF and elevated leverage is vulnerable to funding-cost tightening. This is an analytical framing, not personalized advice.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$211.1M$-39.0M$-51.1MN/A$-56.9M$75.6M$247.5M
FY 2024$166.0M$-50.0M$-84.6MN/A$-64.6M$90.3M$219.6M
FY 2023$165.2M$-65.0M$-78.5MN/A$-88.5MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $165.2M in FY 2023 to $211.1M in FY 2025 while operating losses narrowed from $-65.0M to $-39.0M. Per the market data, operating margin is -18.5% and net margin is -24.2%. ROIC is -15.8% per the market data. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.52 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9. Debt of $247.5M exceeds cash of $75.6M in FY 2025, and the rating reports Debt/Equity of 8.5.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, catalysts include an FDA clearance headline described as an expanded clearance, a price target reduction to $93 by BTIG on estimates, and a Mizuho rating reiteration citing strong sales. Several items are flagged YELLOW (market wire), and one GREEN catalyst item relates to the FDA clearance. Per the Butterfly graph, the proprietary LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND signal is BEARISH with severity 80 and a Macro Tailwind Score of 30/100, driven by a 1.88x True Net Liquidity elasticity and a Net Liquidity reading of $5,745.73B with a -0.64% 4-week rate of change. Risk watch items are the bearish liquidity signal and the BTIG target reduction.

Open Questions

  • What are the trailing and forward earnings per share and the P/E multiples, given that these fields are absent from the source data?
  • What is the EV/EBITDA valuation, and how does it compare with the revenue growth trajectory?
  • What is the composition of the reported Debt of $247.5M, including maturity schedule and interest cost?
  • Which specific institutions hold the stock, and what is the trend in 13F ownership?
  • What is the product and customer breakdown behind the $211.1M revenue figure?

ESTA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. (ESTA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ESTA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ESTA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $62.46?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ESTA 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ESTA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $60.20 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ESTA (E • RQD 30/100) a Buy at $68.41?

Welcome to the ESTA (Establishment Labs Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 30/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Industrial Specialties. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $54.04 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $68.41

Pump the brakes on ESTA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ESTA, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 69.3% gross margins. Unless Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $84.83 (+24.0%)
Spot @ $68.41

ESTA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ESTA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Industrial Specialties and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $68.41 (52-wk range $47.00 - $97.59), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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