Why FER Stock dropped -2.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$55.29 -2.86% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $54.90

Ferrovial N.V. (FER) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $40.95B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FER stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Ferrovial N.V. (NASDAQ: FER) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $55.29 (-2.86% 1D, market cap $40.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, FER ranks #175 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FER compare to ESLT and RKLB in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), FER carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, ESLT (Elbit Systems Ltd.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 70.3x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $37.55B) and RKLB (Rocket Lab Corporation) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.1%, cap $37.10B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TDG leads on earnings multiple (31.3x) while TDG leads on capital efficiency (63.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FER?
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For Ferrovial N.V. (FER), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #175 in Industrials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $54.90 (-0.70%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 15.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (11)SEC (16)Macro (6)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$79 Bull$55 Base$43 Bear
📬 FREE FER RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FER)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FER SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (65.1) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$50.56-2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$49.23+9.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$54.02+2.4% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$55.29-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FER Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, FER faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($54.34) or 200D SMA ($64.18) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($54.79) toward Bear Floor ($42.74).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FER• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FER Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why FER Stock dropped -2.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Ferrovial N.V. (FER) dropped -2.86% to $55.29, trading at 27% of its 52-week range ($48 – $74.79). Stretched risk/reward at 33x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 27% of its 52-week range ($48 – $74.79) with RSI-14 at 65.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.7% around $55.29 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $905.0M annual free cash flow.
Live FER Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRESimply Wall St • 1d ago
Ferrovial (Nasdaq:FER) - Stock Analysis

Simply Wall St report covering Ferrovial N.V. (FER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FER)

  • ✓Walkthrough of FER's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FER // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.51%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $54.53H $56.92L $54.53C $55.29VOL 3.28M
RES: $56.65SUP: $44.95SMA50: $54.34SMA200: $64.18
$73.65$66.70$59.75$52.79$45.84RES $56.65SUP $44.95$55.292026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FER Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +19.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FER today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FER. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FER today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FER)

Industrials Rank #175 of 485 ⚔️ ESLT vs FER Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (FER vs. ESLT, RKLB, TDG, ARXS)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ferrovial N.V. (FER) ranks #175 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #41 by equity capitalization ($40.95B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TDG leads on earnings valuation at 31.3x trailing P/E, while TDG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 63.3% ROIC and 60.1% gross margin. ESLT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with FER at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FER ACTIVE
Ferrovial N.V.
D+ 56/100 32.8x — 9.9% -2.86% $40.95B Benchmark Subject
ESLT
Elbit Systems Ltd.
B 74/100 70.3x 24.4% 15.1% -3.43% $37.55B /eslt-vs-fer →
RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation
D- 39/100 — 34.4% -6.1% -7.39% $37.10B /rklb-vs-fer →
TDG
Transdigm Group Incorporated
C 63/100 31.3x 60.1% 63.3% -2.47% $65.00B /tdg-vs-fer →
ARXS
Arxis Inc.
B 72/100 — 47.4% 4.0% -7.48% $23.66B /arxs-vs-fer →

2. FER Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Ferrovial N.V. (FER) operates in Military/Government/Technical (Industrials) with an equity capitalization of $40.95B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 27.6x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.

3. FER Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FER stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Ferrovial N.V. (NASDAQ: FER) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $55.29 (-2.86% 1D, market cap $40.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, FER ranks #175 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FER compare to ESLT and RKLB in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), FER carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, ESLT (Elbit Systems Ltd.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 70.3x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $37.55B) and RKLB (Rocket Lab Corporation) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.1%, cap $37.10B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TDG leads on earnings multiple (31.3x) while TDG leads on capital efficiency (63.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FER?

For Ferrovial N.V. (FER), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #175 in Industrials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FER trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FER last traded at $55.29 (-2.86% on volume of 5,717,341 shares), positioning the stock +1.75% above its 50-day simple moving average ($54.34) and -13.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($64.18). Across its 52-week range of $48.00 to $74.79, FER sits at the 27.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($52.69 to $57.89).

FER Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is FER stock moving today?

Why FER Stock dropped -2.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 33x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

FER — Ferrovial N.V.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:08:55Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, FER scores 56 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars break down as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 11 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 9.9% and an FCF yield of 2.21%. For an investor, a 2.21% free-cash-flow yield at a P/E (TTM) of 32.8 indicates that cash generation is thin relative to the price being paid; the valuation case depends heavily on future cash growth rather than current cash returns.
  • Whale / 13F Flow: 11 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning scored mid-range. The source does not provide 13F detail in the holders section, so the specific drivers of this score cannot be verified here.
  • Insider Conviction: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scored modestly. No underlying transaction records are included in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 6 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is the weakest pillar, reflecting a Beta of 1.11 and sector sensitivity. For a prospective investor, a beta above 1.0 means the stock is modeled to move more than the market in either direction, which raises exposure in risk-off regimes.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is the strongest pillar, supported by an Altman Z of 3.74, a Piotroski F of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39. These figures point to a comparatively sound balance sheet, which partially offsets the weaker cash and macro scores.

Taken together, the rating frames FER as a name whose financial structure is sound but whose valuation (P/E TTM 32.8, EV/EBITDA 21) and thin cash yield leave limited margin for error. The upside case rests on sustained earnings growth and multiple stability; the downside case is driven by multiple compression if growth or cash conversion disappoints, amplified by the 1.11 beta.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
56.92$40.95B32.827.6211.730%1.11$48 - $74.799.9%

Business

Sector: Industrials. Industry: Military/Government/Technical. Exchange: NASDAQ. Per the profile, Ferrovial N.V. (FER) is a NASDAQ-listed Industrials issuer operating in Military/Government/Technical with a market capitalization of $41.0B. Product lines, customer base, and revenue-generation mechanics are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, six items are tagged to FER:

  • Price-target raise (highest-signal catalyst). A TradingView item is headlined as a 12-month price target raised to $65.5, implying 21% upside, tagged as a GREEN catalyst.
  • Valuation and momentum commentary. A GuruFocus item asks whether FER is overvalued after a 4.4% rally, tagged GREEN.
  • Project news. A Seeking Alpha item discusses the I-24 Southeast Choice Lanes Project and its regional economic impact, tagged YELLOW.
  • Market wire items. Yahoo! Finance Canada, Yahoo Finance UK, and Simply Wall St items are general market-action and stock-analysis pages, tagged YELLOW, without specific catalyst detail in their summaries.

Risk watch items: the feed's own valuation framing (an overvaluation question) and the Roarable RQD macro pillar (6 / 20) both point to valuation and beta sensitivity as the primary risks. Proprietary signals: Not available in source data (the Butterfly graph reports no proprietary signals).

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream dependencies, downstream customers, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. An investor should note that the absence of mapped links means this analysis cannot identify ripple effects from this graph alone.

Open Questions

  • What are FER's reported revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow across recent periods? The financials section contains no data.
  • What is the analyst consensus rating and the distribution of price targets beyond the single referenced $65.5 target?
  • Which institutional holders and insiders are driving the whale and insider pillar scores, and in which direction?
  • What is the product, customer, and contract mix that generates the cash flow underlying the 9.9% ROIC?
  • Why is gross margin reported as 0%, and does it reflect a data gap or the company's reporting structure?

FER Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ferrovial N.V. (FER) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FER Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FER Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $55.29?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FER 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FER:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $61.47 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is FER (D+ • RQD 56/100) a Buy at $56.92?

Welcome to the FER (Ferrovial N.V.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 56/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Military/Government/Technical. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (32.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $43.83 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $56.92

Pump the brakes on FER — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on FER, but look at what you are paying: 32.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Ferrovial N.V. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $66.03 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $56.92

FER cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on FER, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Military/Government/Technical and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $56.92 (52-wk range $48.00 - $74.79), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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