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Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$39.37 -3.69% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.03

Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $775.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FISI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FISI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Financial Institutions Inc. (NASDAQ: FISI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $39.37 (-3.69% 1D, market cap $775.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FISI ranks #517 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FISI compare to SHBI and IBCP in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FISI carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.9%. By comparison, SHBI (Shore Bancshares Inc) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 12.7x, ROIC 10.1%, cap $746.9M) and IBCP (Independent Bank Corporation) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $807.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FISI leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while IBCP leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FISI?

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Per FISI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000862831), Financial Institutions Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $74.9M in net income, and $13.3M in free cash flow against $6.27B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.04 (-0.85%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FISI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FISI SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$38.80+3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$39.95+2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$40.80-3.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$39.37-0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FISI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FISI currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($40.12) and Max Pain ($41.34) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $45.41.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FISI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FISI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FISI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $39.37: 254.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $30.01

$7,623

$-2,377 (-23.8%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $38.48

$9,774

$-226 (-2.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $45.41

$11,534

+$1,534 (+15.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$40	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$43	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$34	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FISI)

✓Walkthrough of FISI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FISI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.07%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $40.88H $40.88L $39.37C $39.37VOL 256.2K

RES: $41.39SUP: $37.88SMA50: $40.12SMA200: $36.81

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FISI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FISI Butterfly Map → + Track FISI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

0.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FISI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FISI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FISI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FISI)

Financials Rank #517 of 1096 ⚔️ SHBI vs FISI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FISI vs. SHBI, IBCP, WASH, RCBC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) ranks #517 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #602 by equity capitalization ($775.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FISI leads on earnings valuation at 10.8x trailing P/E, while IBCP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.6% ROIC and — gross margin. IBCP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with FISI at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FISI ACTIVE Financial Institutions Inc.	D+	53/100	10.8x	—	11.9%	-3.69%	$775.8M	Benchmark Subject
SHBI Shore Bancshares Inc	C+	66/100	12.7x	—	10.1%	-1.37%	$746.9M	/shbi-vs-fisi →
IBCP Independent Bank Corporation	B	73/100	12.0x	—	13.6%	-1.43%	$807.5M	/ibcp-vs-fisi →
WASH Washington Trust Bancorp Inc.	B	72/100	14.3x	—	9.6%	-1.81%	$736.1M	/wash-vs-fisi →
RCBC River City Bank	C-	61/100	—	—	—	-1.29%	$823.4M	/rcbc-vs-fisi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000862831

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $74.9M, operating cash flow of $18.8M, and free cash flow of $13.3M (-81.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, FISI closed FY2025 with $6.27B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$74.9M	$18.8M	$13.3M	$6.27B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$41.6M	$77.1M	$72.2M	$6.12B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$50.3M	$10.9M	$10.9M	—	—

3. FISI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FISI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FISI compare to SHBI and IBCP in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FISI?

Where is FISI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FISI last traded at $39.37 (-3.69% on volume of 256,204 shares), positioning the stock -1.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($40.12) and +6.95% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.81). Across its 52-week range of $28.03 to $42.97, FISI sits at the 75.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($37.64 to $41.10).

FISI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FISI's 12-month stock price target?

Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $38.48 (-2.3% from $39.37), with a bull-case target of $45.41 and a bear-case floor of $30.01.

Is FISI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates FISI D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 53/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: FISI RQD Cockpit FISI 12M Forecast FISI Earnings & Move FISI Dividends & DRIP FISI Insiders & 13F FISI Whale Options FISI Profit Sankey FISI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

FISI — Financial Institutions Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:32:45Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD rating is 57 (letter grade D+), with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." Per the Roarable RQD rating, the five pillars score as follows:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 7 / 20. Scored on ROIC of 11.9% and FCF yield of 1.65%. This is the weakest pillar relative to its maximum, and it is the main reason the composite sits in the sell range. A 1.65% FCF yield means the free cash generated per dollar of market value is modest.
Whale 13F Flow: 13 / 20. Described as institutional accumulation and options positioning. No holder-level detail is provided in the source data (see Analyst View section).
Insider Conviction: 13 / 20. Described as SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. No individual transactions are provided in the source data.
Macro Regime Fit: 11 / 20. Scored on Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is rated as moving in line with the broad market, neither amplifying nor dampening market moves.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. Scored on Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating implies that the cash-generation pillar is the primary drag, while the forensic balance sheet and ownership-flow pillars are middling rather than weak. Upside drivers in the rating framework are limited to the mid-range pillar scores; the weakest pillar points to valuation and cash conversion as the key tradeoffs. The rating's verdict is a composite of these factors and does not isolate any single cause.

Business

Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and Major Banks industry, per the profile section. The source data does not describe its products, customer base, or revenue model. Market capitalization is listed at $0.8B per the profile.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$0.0M	$74.9M	N/A	$13.3M	$108.8M	N/A
FY 2024	$0.0M	$0.0M	$-41.6M	N/A	$72.2M	$87.3M	N/A
FY 2023	$0.0M	$0.0M	$50.3M	N/A	$10.9M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, net income was $74.9M in FY 2025 after a $-41.6M result in FY 2024, and free cash flow moved from $72.2M in FY 2024 to $13.3M in FY 2025. Revenue, operating income, and EPS are reported as $0.0M or N/A in the source data, so margin trends cannot be assessed from it. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each listed as 0%, which should be read as a data limitation rather than a finding. ROIC is listed at 11.9%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5, which the rating treats as moderate forensic strength.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Six headlines are provided in the news wire, all tagged to FISI and all carrying a YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact label:

A Yahoo Finance report describes the stock as caught between Q3 earnings and funding costs.
A Seeking Alpha report titled around a disappointing Q3 while stating the big picture is still compelling.
A Yahoo Finance earnings preview for Q3 2026 references a GF Value implying 29% downside.
A Stock Titan report references a quarterly income after interest costs at $54.3 million.
A kalkine.ca report compares regional bank profitability across FISI and peers.
A MarketBeat report notes the share price broke above its two-hundred-day moving average.

Risk watch items from these headlines are Q3 earnings disappointment, funding-cost pressure, and the 29% downside valuation estimate cited by one source. Positive signals are the quarterly income figure and the moving-average breakout. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records supply_chain as NONE, with no butterfly links. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. The only sector context available is the Financials / Major Banks classification and the funding-cost reference in the news wire.

Open Questions

What are the revenue and operating income figures? The source reports $0.0M for these in every period, so the margin and growth picture cannot be determined.
What drove the swing from $-41.6M net income in FY 2024 to $74.9M in FY 2025?
What is the debt figure? The source lists N/A for debt in every period, although Debt/Equity of 0.5 appears in the rating.
What is the specific content of the Q3 earnings disappointment and funding-cost pressure referenced in the news wire?
Which institutional holders and insiders are behind the 13F and Form 4 flow pillar scores, given that the holders section is empty?

FISI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FISI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 15h ago

Financial Institutions (FISI) Stock Caught Between Q3 Earnings And Funding Costs

Yahoo Finance report covering Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 18h ago

Financial Institutions: Despite Disappointing Q3, The Big Picture Is Still Compelling

Seeking Alpha report covering Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Earnings To Watch: Financial Institutions Inc (FISI) Q3 2026 -- GF Value Sees 29% Downside

Yahoo Finance report covering Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

A bank's income after interest costs hit a quarterly high: $54.3 million.

Stock Titan report covering Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE kalkine.ca • 1d ago

Is Regional Bank Profitability Rising at Financial Institutions (NASDAQ:FISI), First Business Financial Services (NASDAQ:FBIZ) and More?

kalkine.ca report covering Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Financial Institutions (NASDAQ:FISI) Share Price Breaks Above Two Hundred Day Moving Average - What's Next?

MarketBeat report covering Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Financial Institutions (FISI) Q3 Results Flag Rising Credit Costs

Simply Wall St report covering Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Financial Institutions (FISI) Lags Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FISI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $39.37?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FISI 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $44.15 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is FISI (D+ • RQD 57/100) a Buy at $40.88?

Welcome to the FISI (Financial Institutions Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 57/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $34.34 (-16.0%)

Spot @ $40.88

Pump the brakes on FISI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on FISI, but look at what you are paying: 10.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Financial Institutions Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $48.65 (+19.0%)

Spot @ $40.88

FISI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on FISI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $40.88 (52-wk range $28.00 - $42.97), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.