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Stock Ratings / Financials / FMAO / earnings
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Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.9% Move

$36.88 +1.26% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.89

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $501.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FMAO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FMAO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: FMAO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $36.88 (+1.26% 1D, market cap $501.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FMAO ranks #158 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FMAO compare to NRIM and PDLB in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), FMAO carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, NRIM (Northrim BanCorp Inc) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $530.5M) and PDLB (Ponce Financial Group Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 19.9x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $544.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRIM leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while NRIM leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FMAO?
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Per FMAO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000792966), Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. generated $1.44B in revenue (+2.1% YoY), $33.3M in net income, and $35.0M in free cash flow against $3.43B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.89 (+0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510068
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B- · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (14)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$45 Bull$39 Base$30 Bear
📬 FREE FMAO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FMAO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FMAO SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.9% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 8 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$34.98+1.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$35.55+2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$36.45+1.2% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$36.88+1.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FMAO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, FMAO faces multiple-compression risk if 15.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($35.27) or 200D SMA ($30.15) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($38.54) toward Bear Floor ($30.06).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FMAO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FMAO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.9% Swing Band

±$2.18 Expected Swing
$34.70 (-5.9%)Spot $36.88$39.06 (+5.9%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

FMAO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 68/100

Trailing EPS: $2.42 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (68/100)Model Risk Weight (32/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.44B$33.3M$35.0M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.41B$25.9M$30.6M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$102.5M$22.8M$22.1M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating FMAO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on FMAO
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FMAO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +39.43%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $37.11H $37.11L $36.42C $36.88VOL 48.9K
RES: $37.83SUP: $34.46SMA50: $35.27SMA200: $30.15
$38.43$34.98$31.52$28.06$24.61RES $37.83SUP $34.46$36.882026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FMAO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FMAO Butterfly Map → + Track FMAO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
7.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FMAO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FMAO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FMAO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FMAO)

Financials Rank #158 of 1097 ⚔️ NRIM vs FMAO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FMAO vs. NRIM, PDLB, KRNY, WSBF)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) ranks #158 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #700 by equity capitalization ($501.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NRIM leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while NRIM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.8% ROIC and — gross margin. FMAO currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FMAO ACTIVE
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc.
C+ 68/100 15.3x — 9.0% +1.26% $501.2M Benchmark Subject
NRIM
Northrim BanCorp Inc
C 62/100 8.3x — 19.8% +1.72% $530.5M /nrim-vs-fmao →
PDLB
Ponce Financial Group Inc.
C+ 68/100 19.9x — 5.1% -0.22% $544.0M /pdlb-vs-fmao →
KRNY
Kearny Financial Corp
D+ 54/100 23.0x — 3.4% +2.63% $592.2M /krny-vs-fmao →
WSBF
Waterstone Financial Inc. (MD)
D+ 58/100 13.5x — 7.6% +2.10% $351.5M /wsbf-vs-fmao →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000792966 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) reported GAAP revenue of $1.44B (+2.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.41B , and +1306.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $33.3M, operating cash flow of $36.7M, and free cash flow of $35.0M (+14.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, FMAO closed FY2025 with $3.43B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.44B $33.3M $36.7M $35.0M $3.43B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.41B $25.9M $32.5M $30.6M $3.36B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $102.5M $22.8M $22.1M $22.1M — —

3. FMAO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FMAO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: FMAO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $36.88 (+1.26% 1D, market cap $501.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FMAO ranks #158 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FMAO compare to NRIM and PDLB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), FMAO carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, NRIM (Northrim BanCorp Inc) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $530.5M) and PDLB (Ponce Financial Group Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 19.9x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $544.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRIM leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while NRIM leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FMAO?

Per FMAO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000792966), Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. generated $1.44B in revenue (+2.1% YoY), $33.3M in net income, and $35.0M in free cash flow against $3.43B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FMAO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FMAO last traded at $36.88 (+1.26% on volume of 65,315 shares), positioning the stock +4.56% above its 50-day simple moving average ($35.27) and +22.32% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.15). Across its 52-week range of $22.91 to $37.60, FMAO sits at the 95.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($34.70 to $39.06).

Direct Sub-Reports: FMAO RQD Cockpit FMAO 12M Forecast FMAO Earnings & Move FMAO Dividends & DRIP FMAO Insiders & 13F FMAO Whale Options FMAO Profit Sankey FMAO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FMAO — Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 68/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $36.88 (+1.26% 1D, market capitalization $501.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.85%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Savings Institutions industry,..5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) reported $1.44B in annual revenue (up from $1.41B in FY2024, +2.1% YoY) and $33.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($102.5M revenue, $22.8M net income) through FY2025, FMAO scaled operating cash flow to $36.7M and free cash flow to $35.0M, backed by $3.43B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 68/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.85% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $22.91 – $37.60 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 15.3x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Savings Institutions (Financials), FMAO carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can FMAO sustain or expand its — operating margin and 9.0% ROIC against Savings Institutions peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.44B and free cash flow of $35.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FMAO's 14.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FMAO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FMAO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FMAO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $36.88?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FMAO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FMAO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $42.25 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Net income grew from $22.8M in FY 2023 to $33.3M in FY 2025 while trading at 15.3x trailing earnings and a 6.85% FCF yield.

Picked up a starter position in FMAO in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $36.42. Net income grew from $22.8M in FY 2023 to $33.3M in FY 2025 while trading at 15.3x trailing earnings and a 6.85% FCF yield.. Trading inside a $22.91–$37.60 52-week range with 6.85% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Savings Institutions multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — FMAO's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $28.41 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $36.42

Valuation & margin reality check on FMAO at $36.42 before chasing here

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on FMAO: Valuation & margin reality check on FMAO at $36.42 before chasing here. At 15.3x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Savings Institutions triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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