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HBT (69) PEBO (69) WABC (67) BHRB (64) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$51.47 +2.12% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $51.57

First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.34B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FMBH Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FMBH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, First Mid Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: FMBH) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $51.47 (+2.12% 1D, market cap $1.34B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FMBH ranks #211 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FMBH compare to HBT and PEBO in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FMBH carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, HBT (HBT Financial Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 17.4x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $1.33B) and PEBO (Peoples Bancorp Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 13.1x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $1.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WABC leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while BHRB leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FMBH?
β–Ό

Per FMBH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000700565), First Mid Bancshares Inc. generated $3.35B in revenue (+5.9% YoY), $91.7M in net income, and $124.0M in free cash flow against $7.97B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $51.57 (+0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 3.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 56.0% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C+
025507510066
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ Β· Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (12)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$63 Bull$53 Base$42 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE FMBH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FMBH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY FMBH SCORES 66/100 (C+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.7% FCF Margin ($124.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (52.1) create a -8 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$48.85+2.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$49.88+2.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$51.01+0.9% Next Q
Current
66
Grade C+$51.47+1.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (58) β†’ C+ (66)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FMBH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, FMBH faces multiple-compression risk if 14.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($49.98) or 200D SMA ($46.18) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($53.32) toward Bear Floor ($41.59).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FMBHβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œFMBH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±4.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (FMBH)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for FMBH.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating FMBH & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on FMBH
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
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FMBH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.53%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $51.13H $51.47L $50.40C $51.47VOL 129.6K
RES: $52.15SUP: $48.74SMA50: $49.98SMA200: $46.18
$54.30$50.40$46.50$42.59$38.69RES $52.15SUP $48.74$51.472026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FMBH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ FMBH Butterfly Map β†’ + Track FMBH β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
6.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FMBH today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FMBH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FMBH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FMBH)

Financials Rank #211 of 1097 βš”οΈ HBT vs FMBH Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FMBH vs. HBT, PEBO, WABC, BHRB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) ranks #211 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #509 by equity capitalization ($1.34B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WABC leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while BHRB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and β€” gross margin. HBT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with FMBH at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FMBH ACTIVE
First Mid Bancshares Inc.
C+ 66/100 14.8x β€” 9.6% +2.12% $1.34B Benchmark Subject
HBT
HBT Financial Inc.
C+ 69/100 17.4x β€” 12.5% +2.71% $1.33B /hbt-vs-fmbh β†’
PEBO
Peoples Bancorp Inc.
C+ 69/100 13.1x β€” 10.5% +3.54% $1.39B /pebo-vs-fmbh β†’
WABC
Westamerica Bancorporation
C+ 67/100 12.2x β€” 12.4% +1.64% $1.40B /wabc-vs-fmbh β†’
BHRB
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.
C 64/100 12.2x β€” 13.7% +2.23% $1.42B /bhrb-vs-fmbh β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000700565 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) reported GAAP revenue of $3.35B (+5.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.16B , and +978.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $91.7M, operating cash flow of $130.9M, and free cash flow of $124.0M (+3.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, FMBH closed FY2025 with $7.97B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.35B $91.7M $130.9M $124.0M $7.97B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.16B $78.9M $124.4M $119.5M $7.52B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $310.2M $68.9M $72.4M $72.4M β€” β€”

3. FMBH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FMBH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, First Mid Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: FMBH) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $51.47 (+2.12% 1D, market cap $1.34B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FMBH ranks #211 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FMBH compare to HBT and PEBO in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FMBH carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.8x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, HBT (HBT Financial Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 17.4x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $1.33B) and PEBO (Peoples Bancorp Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 13.1x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $1.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WABC leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while BHRB leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FMBH?

Per FMBH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000700565), First Mid Bancshares Inc. generated $3.35B in revenue (+5.9% YoY), $91.7M in net income, and $124.0M in free cash flow against $7.97B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FMBH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FMBH last traded at $51.47 (+2.12% on volume of 162,855 shares), positioning the stock +2.98% above its 50-day simple moving average ($49.98) and +11.46% above its 200-day simple moving average ($46.18). Across its 52-week range of $34.16 to $53.36, FMBH sits at the 90.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±4.5% ($49.15 to $53.79).

Direct Sub-Reports: FMBH RQD Cockpit FMBH 12M Forecast FMBH Earnings & Move FMBH Dividends & DRIP FMBH Insiders & 13F FMBH Whale Options FMBH Profit Sankey FMBH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 66/100 (C+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FMBH β€” First Mid Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 66/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $51.47 (+2.12% 1D, market capitalization $1.34B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.6%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 9.12%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry,. Market capitalization is $1.4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) reported $3.35B in annual revenue (up from $3.16B in FY2024, +5.9% YoY) and $91.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($310.2M revenue, $68.9M net income) through FY2025, FMBH scaled operating cash flow to $130.9M and free cash flow to $124.0M, backed by $7.97B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C+ β€’ RQD 66/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 9.12% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $34.16 – $53.36 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.8x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the provided data. Sector and industry classification (Financials / Major Banks) is the only structural context available.

  • Key Question #1: Can FMBH sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 9.6% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.35B and free cash flow of $124.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FMBH's 13.8x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FMBH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to FMBH Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FMBH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $51.47?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FMBH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FMBH:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Growth & Tech Investor πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $66.02 (+31.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Net income grew from $68.9M to $91.7M over FY 2023–FY 2025 while FCF rose from $72.4M to $124.0M, and the RQD rates Insider Conviction

Don't sleep on FMBH's setup in Financials. Net income grew from $68.9M to $91.7M over FY 2023–FY 2025 while FCF rose from $72.4M to $124.0M, and the RQD rates Insider Conviction highest at 16/20.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (66/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on 14.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $42.84 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $50.40

Valuation & margin reality check on FMBH at $50.40 before chasing here

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short FMBH above $50.40. Valuation & margin reality check on FMBH at $50.40 before chasing here. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20) and FCF yield (9.12%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $53.36.

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