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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / FOUR / news
MMS (68) CBZ (71) TNET (66) DLO (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Why FOUR Stock surged +5.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$42.07 +5.10% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.38

Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.16B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FOUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: FOUR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $42.07 (+5.10% 1D, market cap $3.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FOUR ranks #669 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FOUR compare to MMS and CBZ in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), FOUR carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.5%. By comparison, MMS (Maximus Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 10.3x, ROIC 13.5%, cap $3.34B) and CBZ (CBIZ Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 25.8x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $2.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MMS leads on earnings multiple (10.3x) while TNET leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOUR?
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Per FOUR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001794669), Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) generated $4.18B in revenue (+25.5% YoY), $147.0M in net income, and $624.0M in free cash flow against $8.71B in total assets and $4.54B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.38 (+0.73%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 14.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510044
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk E
Cash (12)Whales (7)SEC (5)Macro (5)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
$80 Bull$39 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE FOUR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FOUR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FOUR SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (34% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.9% FCF Margin ($624.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (52.7) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$38.84+4.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
39
Grade E$40.46-6.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
41
Grade D$37.72+11.5% Next Q
Current
44
Grade D$42.07-6.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FOUR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FOUR currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($40.34) and Max Pain ($44.17) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $79.89.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FOUR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FOUR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why FOUR Stock surged +5.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) surged +5.10% to $42.07, trading at 18% of its 52-week range ($34.56 – $76.09). Stretched risk/reward at 21x P/E (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 18% of its 52-week range ($34.56 – $76.09) with RSI-14 at 52.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.2% around $42.07 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $624.0M annual free cash flow.
Live FOUR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
3 Reasons FOUR has explosive upside potential

Over the past six months, Shift4’s stock price fell to $38.75. Shareholders have lost 14.1% of their capital, which is disappointing considering the S&P 500 has climbed by 8.2%. This was partly due to its softer quarterl

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FOUR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of FOUR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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FOUR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.36%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $39.25H $42.07L $39.25C $42.07VOL 2.67M
RES: $65.59SUP: $32.76SMA50: $40.34SMA200: $46.05
$70.64$60.86$51.08$41.30$31.53RES $65.59SUP $32.76$42.072026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FOUR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FOUR Butterfly Map → + Track FOUR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
14.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +25.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOUR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOUR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FOUR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FOUR)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #669 of 1009 ⚔️ MMS vs FOUR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (FOUR vs. MMS, CBZ, TNET, DLO)

Industry: Business Services (88 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) ranks #669 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #351 by equity capitalization ($3.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MMS leads on earnings valuation at 10.3x trailing P/E, while TNET leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CBZ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with FOUR at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FOUR ACTIVE
Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A)
D 44/100 21.1x — 5.5% +5.10% $3.16B Benchmark Subject
MMS
Maximus Inc.
C+ 68/100 10.3x 24.6% 13.5% +4.44% $3.34B /mms-vs-four →
CBZ
CBIZ Inc.
B- 71/100 25.8x 12.9% 5.9% +0.06% $2.98B /cbz-vs-four →
TNET
TriNet Group Inc.
C+ 66/100 18.9x — 85.0% +5.09% $2.94B /tnet-vs-four →
DLO
DLocal Limited (Class A)
D 47/100 — — — +2.16% $3.82B /dlo-vs-four →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001794669 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) reported GAAP revenue of $4.18B (+25.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.33B , and +63.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $147.0M, operating cash flow of $634.0M, and free cash flow of $624.0M (+26.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOUR closed FY2025 with $8.71B in total assets against $4.54B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.93, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.18B $147.0M $634.0M $624.0M $8.71B $4.54B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.33B $294.5M $500.0M $493.0M $5.04B $2.15B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.56B $122.9M $346.0M $346.0M — —

3. FOUR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FOUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: FOUR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $42.07 (+5.10% 1D, market cap $3.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FOUR ranks #669 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FOUR compare to MMS and CBZ in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), FOUR carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.5%. By comparison, MMS (Maximus Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 10.3x, ROIC 13.5%, cap $3.34B) and CBZ (CBIZ Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 25.8x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $2.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MMS leads on earnings multiple (10.3x) while TNET leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOUR?

Per FOUR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001794669), Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) generated $4.18B in revenue (+25.5% YoY), $147.0M in net income, and $624.0M in free cash flow against $8.71B in total assets and $4.54B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FOUR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FOUR last traded at $42.07 (+5.10% on volume of 1,964,245 shares), positioning the stock +4.29% above its 50-day simple moving average ($40.34) and -8.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($46.05). Across its 52-week range of $34.56 to $76.09, FOUR sits at the 18.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.2% ($38.20 to $45.94).

Direct Sub-Reports: FOUR RQD Cockpit FOUR 12M Forecast FOUR Earnings & Move FOUR Dividends & DRIP FOUR Insiders & 13F FOUR Whale Options FOUR Profit Sankey FOUR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FOUR — Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 44/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $42.07 (+5.10% 1D, market capitalization $3.16B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 8.4%, and free cash flow yield of 20.13%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.93, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 3.15x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Business Services industry. — for detailed product lines, customer segments, or revenue model descriptions.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) reported $4.18B in annual revenue (up from $3.33B in FY2024, +25.5% YoY) and $147.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.56B revenue, $122.9M net income) through FY2025, FOUR scaled operating cash flow to $634.0M and free cash flow to $624.0M, backed by $8.71B in total assets against $4.54B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 44/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 20.13% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $34.56 – $76.09 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 21.1x trailing P/E and 18.6x EV/EBITDA against 8.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Business Services (Consumer Discretionary), FOUR carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can FOUR sustain or expand its 8.4% operating margin and 5.5% ROIC against Business Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.18B and free cash flow of $624.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $4.54B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FOUR's 17.7x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FOUR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FOUR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FOUR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $42.07?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FOUR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FOUR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $50.84 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 20.13% FCF yield and the strongest insider-conviction pillar (15 / 20) suggest the cash engine is generating substantial free cash re

A 20.13% FCF yield and the strongest insider-conviction pillar (15 / 20) suggest the cash engine is generating substantial free cash relative to the share price.. When you look under the hood at FOUR, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 5.5% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (7/20) has been quietly accumulating below $76.09. My 12M target is $50.84.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on 21.1x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Business Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $30.82 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $40.03

An Altman Z-Score of 0.93 and Debt/Equity of 3.15, with debt rising to $4.54B, signal a distressed balance sheet under a Roarable Sel

Fading this rally in FOUR at $40.03. An Altman Z-Score of 0.93 and Debt/Equity of 3.15, with debt rising to $4.54B, signal a distressed balance sheet under a Roarable Sell rating.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $40.03 (52-wk range $34.56–$76.09), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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